[henryteeare]

(1) is correct, but I believe (2) is no longer assumed to be true (especially the part about random RNA in the ocean).

The major problem is concentration. Even if you invoke geological timescales and a favourable redox environment, concentrations of reactants would be rapidly diluted in the ocean. Since there are quite a few dehydration reactions in the synthesis of oligonucleotides (like RNA) and proteins, when diluted in the ocean, the plentiful water drives the equilibrium back towards the starting materials. Without some mechanism to accumulate the reactants to form the first R/DNA, it remains an open question how the process got started.

There used to be a homeostasis-first theory—to compete with the metabolism-first and oligonucleotide-first theories—but it hasn't gained a lot of traction as an independent theory.

[ncmncm]

Dehydration is a fact hard to argue with.

[marcosdumay]

Yet, all it needs is a weak simple catalyst, in a literal ocean full or random stuff that we can't actually imagine today.