In the (hopefully unlikely) event that Twitter forces this deal to close and some equity partners don’t come through, it is important to avoid an emergency sale of Tesla stock. @elonmusk 2:53 AM · Aug 10, 2022
50% chance that is a bs excuse to liquidate - 50% chance he has figured out he is totally screwed on the twitter lawsuit.
I'm more astounded because I remember from 2015 or before, here on HN several threads for months on end popping up all about how Twitter was defrauding users with bots. Then it quietly disappeared and now we are hearing about it all over again. I don't know which users are bots, I know people can buy followers, are those the bots? If that's the full extent of it, it feels, so insignificant to me, however, they were apparently reporting usage metrics which included bots on the platform which was misleading to investors is what I remember being the issue back 5 or more years.
What does this mean for Elon Musk? I'm not sure, but I wonder if he already knew about the bots or what.
Which seems more likely?
- He’s irrational and crazy and changes his mind on a whim
- This whole thing was an excuse to sell a ton of TSLA at the top of the market
The prior. The second is a post rationalization of his behavior attempting to deflect his inability to predict with certainty the exact development of the future, coupled with an extremely odd base assumption that he was somehow completely incapable of liquidating stock with out having some “public cover”.
People will go to great lengths to defend their idols, but claiming that Musk was playing 4D chess on this and that it was all a ploy to liquidate stock is the inverse of Occam’s razor, especially considering all the more straight forwards paths he had even if this was his main objective.
In the future, if an acquisition gets offered at some x price and the stock rallies to almost x, then the delta (smart move) is to short, not buy. If you buy, the most you are going to get is that 5% bump. If you short, you can make 100%.
How does the Twitter share price stop you from living your life?
The current price is $42. If you need money, sell some portion of it.
$42 is probably a fair risk-adjusted price as the board will likely ultimately settle for a lower sale price to avoid a very public litigation about its true bot content.
Don't look at $54.29 as the "correct" price. Evaluate the spectrum of probabilistic outcomes.
I'm the opposite. Used to hate him, thought he'd just another self righteous leftist billionaire.
But after he started speaking out against the censorship of Twitter, and about depopulation being a problem, and calling out bill gates and Biden, I appreciate him more than before. I think he wouldn't try to back off if he didn't initiate the deal at what was probably the market top for the next several years.
It is going to be seriously disappointing, nay depressing, if - in 5 years time or so - we look back at this era and see the end of humanities greatest attempt to move to space, ruined because of the mobthink of Twitter.
I sure hope Elon manages to get through the turmoil he has created - and incurred by stint of the raging hate-boners of liberals everywhere - and gets Starship completed and ready to rumble.
Because nothing makes the imperative for the human race to move to space more clear than the ranting/raging rubble that calls for the blood of any human being who dares to raise the bar and yet still makes a few rude unforgivable mistakes along the way ..
Seriously, I hope we get Starship, whatever happens. If that is canned because Musk was eaten by cannibals, its going to be a very, very disappointing result.
> and incurred by stint of the raging hate-boners of liberals everywhere
Or just his own awful actions. Rushing into a garbage purchase contract for Twitter is his own fault and nobody else's. Attacking people at the drop of a hat (regardless of the justness of his actions) is his own self-destructive choice.
The only meaningful squanderer of Elon's potential is Elon himself, not the Twitter rabble.
If he must buy TWTR at his advertised price with his own cash, he must liquidate way more TSLA - about 44bln$ worth, as far as I remember. He actually will have to liquidate way more, because liquidation is a taxation event, and he'll have to pay a significant percentage of his gains to the US government. I don't know how much he needs to liquidate, but I'd guess it's more like 60-70bln$.
Liquidating such an amount of TSLA in a short time will not happen without significant reduction of TSLA stock price. Musk will probably still be a multi-billionaire afterwards, but it would cost him several billions on the TSLA and TWTR front, because he would have overpaid for TWTR, TSLA share price would have tanked and he would have paid billions in taxes.
On the dumb-n-dumber Full Send Youtube channel the tip of the iceberg model for where Twitter would be with Elon Musk setting priorities and directions was touched and this cash could be the basis for funding the 3-year business plan accelerant. The Optimus Prime A.I. [OPAI] subject will be touched on next. Picture a world with people on Twitter and OPAI is the hub of activity for unfouled information. That's the potential upside.
I can't believe the biggest huckster, snake-oil-salesman, ever, is going to end up owning the internet's town square.
Our last hope for justice are the courts. Musk has three major trials in October, the 420 "funding secured" trial, some sex discrimination or bullying trial, I think, and the twitter trial in Delaware Chancery court.
The Chancery is our best chance, as they don't play. And Musk has already caused a rule 11 breach by signing statements that his own evidentiary submitions prove false.
I hope the courts fine him a few billion for his antics, and maybe ban him from being an company officer for 5 years. That's the only punishment that would be meaningful for a man like that. Specific performance, alone, would be a massive win for Musk. He needs to get fined hard, too.
> I can't believe the biggest huckster, snake-oil-salesman, ever, is going to end up owning the internet's town square.
Your two points seem to be at odds. If Twitter prevails in the upcoming case, my understanding is that Musk would be forced to complete the deal. I'd much prefer he just fcks off and goes home, even if it means he "wins".
[+] [-] blitzar|3 years ago|reply
50% chance that is a bs excuse to liquidate - 50% chance he has figured out he is totally screwed on the twitter lawsuit.
[+] [-] giancarlostoro|3 years ago|reply
What does this mean for Elon Musk? I'm not sure, but I wonder if he already knew about the bots or what.
[+] [-] kleinsch|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kadoban|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] isitmadeofglass|3 years ago|reply
People will go to great lengths to defend their idols, but claiming that Musk was playing 4D chess on this and that it was all a ploy to liquidate stock is the inverse of Occam’s razor, especially considering all the more straight forwards paths he had even if this was his main objective.
[+] [-] koheripbal|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] nopeYouAreWrong|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] irthomasthomas|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rhodorhoades|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] koheripbal|3 years ago|reply
The current price is $42. If you need money, sell some portion of it.
$42 is probably a fair risk-adjusted price as the board will likely ultimately settle for a lower sale price to avoid a very public litigation about its true bot content.
Don't look at $54.29 as the "correct" price. Evaluate the spectrum of probabilistic outcomes.
[+] [-] shapefrog|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ftyhbhyjnjk|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dang|3 years ago|reply
Perhaps you don't owe billionaire trolls better, but you owe this community better if you're participating in it.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
[+] [-] koheripbal|3 years ago|reply
If you are searching for role models for life, it is better to search inward. Plenty of philosophical texts you can read.
[+] [-] the_common_man|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jokoon|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] leobg|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] machina_ex_deus|3 years ago|reply
But after he started speaking out against the censorship of Twitter, and about depopulation being a problem, and calling out bill gates and Biden, I appreciate him more than before. I think he wouldn't try to back off if he didn't initiate the deal at what was probably the market top for the next several years.
[+] [-] bearmode|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] Rackedup|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 28194608|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] boffinAudio|3 years ago|reply
I sure hope Elon manages to get through the turmoil he has created - and incurred by stint of the raging hate-boners of liberals everywhere - and gets Starship completed and ready to rumble.
Because nothing makes the imperative for the human race to move to space more clear than the ranting/raging rubble that calls for the blood of any human being who dares to raise the bar and yet still makes a few rude unforgivable mistakes along the way ..
Seriously, I hope we get Starship, whatever happens. If that is canned because Musk was eaten by cannibals, its going to be a very, very disappointing result.
[+] [-] elkos|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anonymousab|3 years ago|reply
Or just his own awful actions. Rushing into a garbage purchase contract for Twitter is his own fault and nobody else's. Attacking people at the drop of a hat (regardless of the justness of his actions) is his own self-destructive choice.
The only meaningful squanderer of Elon's potential is Elon himself, not the Twitter rabble.
[+] [-] pjerem|3 years ago|reply
Well. It looks like with this Twitter subterfuge, he is now multi billionaire, but in cash.
Now he just have to buy Twitter at whatever condition and he will still be multi-billionaire and own Twitter and Tesla.
[+] [-] Slartie|3 years ago|reply
Liquidating such an amount of TSLA in a short time will not happen without significant reduction of TSLA stock price. Musk will probably still be a multi-billionaire afterwards, but it would cost him several billions on the TSLA and TWTR front, because he would have overpaid for TWTR, TSLA share price would have tanked and he would have paid billions in taxes.
[+] [-] abudabi123|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cma|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] koheripbal|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] irthomasthomas|3 years ago|reply
Our last hope for justice are the courts. Musk has three major trials in October, the 420 "funding secured" trial, some sex discrimination or bullying trial, I think, and the twitter trial in Delaware Chancery court.
The Chancery is our best chance, as they don't play. And Musk has already caused a rule 11 breach by signing statements that his own evidentiary submitions prove false.
I hope the courts fine him a few billion for his antics, and maybe ban him from being an company officer for 5 years. That's the only punishment that would be meaningful for a man like that. Specific performance, alone, would be a massive win for Musk. He needs to get fined hard, too.
[+] [-] 14u2c|3 years ago|reply
Your two points seem to be at odds. If Twitter prevails in the upcoming case, my understanding is that Musk would be forced to complete the deal. I'd much prefer he just fcks off and goes home, even if it means he "wins".
[+] [-] netsharc|3 years ago|reply