[checker]

Alright, I'm no MAD game theory expert so I'll probably get ripped apart, but I'll appreciate the discussion.

I've wondered if there's any MAD incentive to keep some major groundbreaking technology under complete wraps (beyond TS - see recent headlines). If MAD is disrupted by groundbreaking tech, and if this technology would significantly boost strike capabilities and possibly render nuclear weapons useless, then the rival nations would be forced to exercise a nuclear strike preemptively to ensure their security to prevent a war they would inevitably lose.

So that's one theory that I've kicked around in my head as to why we might have such tech but keep it such a tight secret. It certainly could be complete fantasy or misunderstanding of MAD. Please tell me why I'm wrong so I can bury this line of thought!

[Sebb767]

> If MAD is disrupted by groundbreaking tech, and if this technology would significantly boost strike capabilities and possibly render nuclear weapons useless, then the rival nations would be forced to exercise a nuclear strike preemptively to ensure their security to prevent a war they would inevitably lose.

As of now, a nuclear war would result in two losers anyway, that's the whole point of MAD. Doing a preemptive strike would just create a massive problem where there might never be one. The only reason to attack would be if you already plan on kamikaze-by-nuke.

[NegativeLatency]

"Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret! Why didn't you tell the world?"

[RcouF1uZ4gsC]

But what if it is not a Doomsday machine. What if it is something that can give you first strike capability while also destroying any enemy attempt at retaliation. In that case, it might make sense to keep it close to the vest, lest you destabilize MAD.

[shsbdncudx]

Tbh I think US conventional weaponry is pretty close to cancelling MAD anyway.

US weapons actually work.

[spaceman_2020]

And they actually seem to have enough of them. Russia seems to have three prototypes and zero inventory.