[IWillForgetThis]

The universe X example has some merit too. The developer got a raise, the business was excited enough to get this feature done ahead of schedule that someone actually put in the effort to push through a raise, and the total cost for this was one man-week of extra work a year later - basically a drop in the bucket, budget-wise.

[lostcolony]

You're focusing too much on the specifics of the hypothetical rather than the point of the hypothetical. If you can't get out to the abstraction, then in universe X, programmer B-Z all spend 3 weeks on a feature, and in universe Y, programmer B-Z all spend 1 week on a feature. So we've got an extra man year being burned, all to save a man week upfront. Extend to whatever point short of breaking the analogy you care to.