Jobs. It would seems that we have an obsession with creating jobs.
If you hear politicians, and if my perception are right, they talk about jobs. Not whether or not we get more purchasing power than ever before. Not whether or not our lifestyle is more fulfilling than ever before. Jobs. More jobs. Less jobs. More competitive Americans. No manufacturing jobs. Colleges not creating enough people to fill jobs. Robots are destroying our jobs. Robots need to be maintain by something or someone, probably another robot or human being.
But jobs are just proxy. A proxy for our self-worth, our independence, or whether or not we have a future. Jobs, for us, are just means to an end. Yes, some of us are musicians, football players, programmers, scientists, etc. We like our jobs. I suspect the vast majority of humans don't really enjoy all that much working their job.
Rather than talking about creating jobs and destroying jobs, which is an assumption that exists in a world where there are scarcity and there's boring things to do for humans to maintain their existence, why not talk about the end, what should our goal be in life? We can then rearrange our actions in life based on our conclusion what our life should be and what we want to achieve rather than just simply on what needed to be done at this point in time.
After all, if a strong FAI comes, we may not even have jobs. At the same time, we ought to figure out what's our life purpose other than going to a job and work for someone or operating a business just to simply maintain our existence. There's no longer a need to grow your food, goes to the hair saloon to cut someone's hair, pump the gas, etc. How are we going to live for the next 10,000 years and 10,000 years beyond that and so on?
This is a nice thought, and might be relevant a few decades ago when America was at the top of its game in relation to all the other countries on Earth. Now, I'm not so sure. You're talking about a post-scarcity society when a growing portion of Americans can't even put food on the table or a roof over their head. You're talking the personal fulfillment when more and more Americans are forced to work multiple jobs just to make ends meet.
It's nice that you have the freedom and the time to ponder such ideological issues. It's nice that you're able to look higher on the hierarchy of needs rather than scrabbling for scraps. I mean that in the non-snarkiest of ways, really.
But for the vast majority of the population they need a job right now. They don't have time to worry about your high-minded concepts of personal fulfillment, and whether or not a FAI will usher in a utopia of zero scarcity. They need to make rent and put groceries in the fridge this week.
The politicians are focusing on jobs as a core issue because that's what's foremost on people's minds. It's foremost on people's minds because it's exactly what they need. They need more jobs in a stronger economy. Imagine if all the unemployed folk in this country just sat around waiting for the post-scarcity society to hit them upside the head!
US does have a net surplus in terms of basic necessities. If their welfare system can distribute it efficiently, then it would make having work less relevant, especially during times when there simply isn't enough work to go around.
I'm pro-immigration, but the article still feels like a bit of a sham to me by highlightling Brin, Omidyar and Yang without addressing the fact that Sergey Brin immigrated to America when he was 6, Pierre Omidyar was also 6 and Jerry Yang was 10.
How do you know then that they'll be massive job creators? Certainly each of them had ambitious parents and that's something, but then so does just about everyone who actively works to immigrate to a new place for a better life... assuming we can't figure out who the next Brin will be when they are 6 or 10 (and we can't), is the author arguing we should just open up the floodgates to everyone with educated parents? Because that's a heckofalot of people.
But since we don't have a visa that allows for entrepreneurial founders to immigrate here, how can we have examples to highlight their potential contributions? The closest thing we can do is point to similar people.
Personally, I think that Vinod Khosla and Manu Kumar are better examples. I'm of the understanding that Khosla didn't have a valid visa when Sun was founded, but an exemption was made because of the sheer success of the company from nearly day 1.
The other thing I want to look at is people like Robin Li of Baidu, American educated, employed by American companies, but when it came time to create a company, he went home. Possibly, even likely, that was because a company serving Chinese should be based in China, but it's certain that since he didn't have a green card, he wouldn't be able to get a visa as a founder to stay here. America loses when people who could stay here to found companies return to their country to create jobs and foreign competition there.
The US really needs to emulate other countries here.
The problem here is that the "immigrant" visa is really the same thing as a work visa, and that leads to a great deal of abuse.
For one thing, the eligibility is tied to an employer, who is incentivized to embellish, cheat, and otherwise finagle their way to a visa. The expectation that the visa is temporary also sets a lower bar for entry - even though many of these people will eventually become American PRs/citizens.
The recent trend to "stage" the H-1B green card process is a step in the right direction - though it doesn't go as far as it needs to. There is still a major problem of indentured servitude. Once an employee has a green card process in the pipeline their employer has them over a barrel - and many will not hesitate to use this as an opportunity for abuse.
Not to mention, with the green card backlog the way it is now, it would be years before "your huddled masses of immigrant entrepreneurs yearning to breathe free" are actually able to start businesses. First they have to go through ~8-10 years as a rank and file employee, before they're granted the legal freedom to pursue their own future. The startup visa would go a long way to alleviating that, though the heavy involvement of VCs in that initiative will mean that bootstrappers and other scrappy startups that don't want to raise hojillions in funding will be still at a severe disadvantage.
How do you fix this? IMO the US needs to setup a track for immigrants to immediately receive green cards, where having a job offer is not a prerequisite (though it would certainly help). The focus needs to shift away from fulfilling "temporary shortages" (which we all know is bullshit) to simply permanent, mass importation of worthy talent. Set up the process to filter people based on the assumption that they will permanently stay, as opposed the the current process where we'll let just about anyone in, since they're "temporary" H-1Bs anyways. This will raise the calibre of people you're letting in, and also make sure you're giving top talent maximum freedom once they're here. The whole "immigration policy masquerading as work permit" thing really needs to GTFO.
> The US really needs to emulate other countries here.
Which other countries are these? As the holder of an employer-tied 3-year temporary Danish work permit, with no possibility to even apply for the Danish equivalent of a green card until I've resided in the country with solid employment for at least 4 years (and passed a language exam, something the U.S. doesn't require), I don't think it can be this one...
Though to be fair, the Danish consulate was friendly and efficient with processing the employer-tied temporary permit.
So the green card issue is that of "status transfer," where if you change jobs in the first step of the green card application, you have to start again, since your employer sponsorship status doesn't transfer, putting you at the back of a nearly decade-long line. Based on anec-data, we suspect a large number of immigrants want to start companies but can't until they get green cards, which is a big problem for an innovation-based economy.
For startup visa, the latest version has other paths, involving $100k in US revenue or simply being a H1-B/student visa holder with sufficient assets/income to not be a drain on US taxpayers: http://kerry.senate.gov/press/release/?id=4e6a51f6-fb2b-4212... Meaning, there's less pure reliance on VCs as the gatekeepers for visas and green card, a la the criticism of the 2010 Startup Visa by folks like Vivek Wadhwa.
Not that I have a solution to this problem, but who does the filtering once you remove the job offer as a prerequisite? I can't conceive of a situation where the people that get put in charge of that process are actually qualified.
Why doesn't the US move to a points-based system like the UK and Canada? This seems like a simple and sensible solution to a complex problem that ensures that the people who immigrate are in some sense "useful" to the country.
I also don't understand why the green card backlog isn't being handled efficiently. Surely, if somebody is paying, say more than 20k in income taxes every year for, say 5 years in a row, there is reason to believe their contribution to the country is a net positive. Why not just give them citizenship and be done with it?
As an outsider, I feel like the US is the opposite of an "agile" government. It seems like there is a lot bickering and fear-mongering at every level and important decisions are being made based on populism and emotional appeals rather than rational decision making. I'm not sure if this is really the case because my news sources are the likes of Reddit and the so-called "liberal media", but unfortunately this is perception I get.
I feel like the US is the opposite of an "agile" government.
Yes. That is intentional by the design of the federal Constitution. A friend of mine, an engineer, was discussing American politics with me and another friend, a mathematics teacher, one day. The mathematics teacher decried the inefficiency of United States government. The engineer replied, "I'm an engineer. The one thing I'm afraid of is EFFICIENT government." Many Americans are strongly in agreement with Henry David Thoreau that "That government is best which governs least."
It's /really/ hard to manage the world's largest GDP effectively. Governmental gridlock tends towards the status quo and institutional inertia is huge. This is Vernon Vinge's 'to scale, you need complexity, but complexity inevitably leads to collapse' theories in action.
It is not about the inability to find a solution, there are hundreds of things that can be done to improve the process ( including major overhauls like the one you suggested) . But the whole topic is such a quagmire that no government want to touch the subject with ten foot pole.
The backlog is there not because the handling is inefficient its due to the country wide quota from the archaic system
I'm shocked at the amount of xenophobia in the comments on the CNN site. Being Canadian, I have no idea whether it is representative of the population at large, but it appears that many Americans have been brainwashed into the thinking that the only immigrants are the ones driving cabs or working at fast food. The problem is that everybody has been talking themselves to death about illegal immigration, and haven't focused on the benefits of legal immigration. Does the Startup Visa have a chance in hell with the current political climate surrounding immigration in the US?
The problem is that most Americans are the descendents of the people that arrived, displaced the native population, took their land and exploited it's natural resources.
So naturally they are wary of people coming along and doing the same to them.
I agree that US needs an entrepreneur visas. But I disagree with author's suggestion that all US-educated graduates must be given green cards. A lot of them came to US to study because they could afford it (often via wealthy parents). I don't think it's fair to give green cards only because they graduated from a US university thanks to their rich parents.
Foreign students have one year after graduation to find an employer, convert to H-1B and then ask the employer to sponsor the green card. Nothing wrong with this.
However, of course H1-B to green card to citizenship must be done in a more timely manner. In many cases it takes too long. The time spent on waiting for the green card (sometimes as long as 4-5 years or even more, due to slow bureaucracy) must be in some way counted towards the citizenship requirement of 5-year residency.
I think as baby-boomer generation starts to retire en-mass, U.S. will have no choice but to liberalize and simplify its immigration policy. It is competing against many other developed countries for younger workers and talent, and the earnings disparity is becoming less of a factor in many developing countries. There's just no way out but to make immigration process faster and more attractive if the U.S. wants to win.
"But I disagree with author's suggestion that all US-educated graduates must be given green cards. A lot of them came to US to study because they could afford it (often via wealthy parents). I don't think it's fair to give green cards only because they graduated from a US university thanks to their rich parents." Very insightful!
However, the green card wait times are more due to scarcity, with many more people entering the green card pipeline than by law can exit each year, rather than slow bureaucracy.
I agree re: the future of immigration policy, but I think the talent war is even more important than you think. Right now, and since the 60s, US immigration policy has been aligned on a family-unification platform, and with strict numerical limits, a huge percentage of American immigration is taken up by family-based immigration. As liberal and pleasing as it is, it's going to have to go, as America will have to fully enter the competition for top talent.
"Foreign students have one year after graduation to find an employer, convert to H-1B and then ask the employer to sponsor the green card. Nothing wrong with this."
From personal experience, everything is wrong with this H-1B visa (slavery to employer) and even with proposed Startup/ Entrepreneur Visa which again promotes slavery to "someone."
If US is serious, they should allow 5 year unrestricted visa to all foreign graduates from US universities (no government benefits during this period). With this visa, these graduates can either work for anyone or start business. The exit from this visa to green card should be based on specific number of people employed or revenue earned or income earned.
If you read TechCrunch (Wadhwa's pieces especially) or the ABC article referenced, this piece contains absolutely nothing new, just a rehash of the same things. Sparse, suspect data, plenty of correlation/causation fallacies, and topped off with a populist appeal to "create jobs"
One issue in terms of data that I struggle with on researching this issue is that we're discussing a big empty space and wondering why it is empty. Immigrants in the US aren't allowed to build companies and create jobs unless they are very lucky/connected or they wait a long period of time to get their green card, since no visa currently exists for founders.
We can't do A/B testing to see if our suspicions that we'd have more startups and more jobs for US citizens if we allowed more founders—not more blanket immigration, mind you—into the country. The people who do find a way in tend to be the best and the brightest of the pool, so our anecdata looks favorable. There seem to be indications that immigrants and first-generation citizens tend to be 'hungrier' than more established populations, though that doesn't say anything about success/failure rates.
From a physics perspective, it's like hunting dark matter. We suspect that job growth would result from passing Startup Visa or STEM Green Cards, but economics theories are nowhere close to the rigor of physics theories. VCs still only invest in solid, market-driven ideas. I'd rather trust to them and to the market as a whole as to who sees success than have the government throw up artificial barriers to block non-Americans from American networks of capital and talent, especially when it means the failure to launch of startups that might make my life better.
The best bit of public policy analysis I've seen on Startup Visa and implications for job growth is from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), but they studied the 2010 Startup Visa, which is much more limited than even the 2011 Startup Visa. The 2011 version of the bill doesn't address STEM Green Cards and is strictly limited in an attempt to pass a conservative House of Representatives, whose majority has a strong anti-immigration faction.
So we're left with all of the arguments that you state. However, note that a thoughtful person like yourself isn't the target audience of something on CNN. The NFAP analysis is probably more 'chewy' for someone who wants to dive into the issue.
I've been seeing Wadwha's pieces all over the place, they are, as far as I can tell, completely rehashes of each other.
I believe in skilled immigration to the USA, and that the current system is badly b0rked (and in fact somewhat "geared" towards illegal immigration) but these articles, with their leaps of logic and poor reasoning strike me as a setback for any sort of immigration reform.
At least he's advocating, which is good, and given the low IQ of Congress, it probably doesn't matter that his articles leave much unanswered and generally fall short of being cogent arguments. But noise probably works better than cogency in this regard.
when it comes to people's lives, though, we can't brush things of with stats. There really are millions of people suffering, doesn't matter if it's an increase from before or not, jobs or a safety net should be front and center of public debate
This logic has always bothered me, and I know lots of you will disagree, but here it is: Job creation alone is not a noble goal. It should never be used as a reason for making policy changes.
There's an economic fallacy at place here. Jobs, in and of themselves, do not benefit us on the whole. You could give some number of people a "job" to walk around in circles all day long and pay them money for it, but the net effect would be that society sees no benefit from this. Productive jobs, however, are good things. There is a conflict, though: the more productive your job is, the fewer employees are necessary - actually resulting in fewer jobs.
Hopefully you have witnessed this first-hand over the last few decades. Travel agencies have been replaced by Priceline, Expedia, etc. Tax specialists have been replaced by TurboTax, TaxAct, etc. Even simple legal matters can be handled by LegalZoom and the like, reducing the need for lawyers. All manufactured media products (books, news, movies, music, games) are now transferred digitally, which eliminates the need for factory workers to produce physical products. Online banking eliminates the need for bank tellers. Countless other examples.
Essentially, technology kills jobs. We develop software and devices to handle what was traditionally done by people, and sell the services at a much cheaper rate because we don't have to pay for all the overhead that old services once required. This is a good thing, however.
Anyway, I'm all for immigration, and I'm all for tech companies. But the fact is they destroy jobs more than they create them, and are therefore partially responsible for the current unemployment rate. The logic behind this article is all backwards because of this.
Agreed. The term for what you describe in your third paragraph is "labor replacement". There is huge profit to be made in labor replacement, with the effect of loss of jobs.
It is troubling that few readers pick up on the use of examples with gross jobs created and not net jobs created. In this case, Amit Arahoni's 9 jobs created are gross, not net. A more-clear example would be that of Craigslist. How many jobs has Craigslist created? Well, 30 jobs in gross, but likely a large negative number in net as it played a large part in displacing at least one entire industry (newspapers).
You comment is a very, very important one and I hate that people don't see the difference between jobs for jobs sake and productive jobs.
I mean if all we wanted was jobs we could just outlaw gasoline, electricity and non-human powered generators. That would create jobs for untold millions.
It would also be utterly destructive for our standard of life/health/happiness/etc.
One thing is work visas; another is college visas.
I remember being told (as a European) in the equivalent of high school(?) that if I wanted to go to an American college, I would have to start preparations a year and a half in advance - mainly due to the time spent on processing visas.
I would have loved nothing better than to go to an American college, but, at least at the time, that made it neigh-impossible to apply for an American college, when studying at a national university or, hell, another university in Europe or Britain seemed so much easier.
I don't know what other people's experiences are, and it may be a cultural thing; maybe the process is otherwise facilitated in, say, India and China.
EDIT: FWIW, this was after 9/11. Just to account for whatever that may have changed.
The NYT had an interesting article about increasing numbers of international students on American campuses, possibly for financial reasons, since most universities are not need-blind for international students. I'm guessing it's easier now, and there are certainly professionals who facilitate the process in China, according to the article.
The US immigration and visa situation is really quite horrendous.
For example, I'm an Australian. That means I qualify for (and have) an E-3 visa. What's that you might ask? It's a special work visa created specifically for Australian nationals. It applies for two years and can be renewed indefinitely.
What's more, unlike an H1B visa, it's not subject to quotas and the employer doesn't first need to "prove" they couldn't find a suitably qualified domestic worker (a system fraught with abuse that simply acts as a wealth transfer system from companies to immigration lawyers).
The problem? When I need to renew it, it may take USCIS months. Plus it's more expensive than applying for a fresh visa. Also, once approved they renew your status not your visa. What does that mean? It means if you leave the country for any reason you don't have a valid visa to re-enter the US so you have to get a new visa anyway.
Basically, you need to leave the country every two years to apply for a new one (since you can't apply within the US, of course).
What's more, each time I will have to fill out the exact same set of questions (DS-160), make an appointment, give them my passport and wait for it to be returned.
Why does this visa exist? Essentially to settle a trade dispute between the US and Australia over wheat. Australia does not subsidize wheat. The US does (as does Europe) to a huge degree, yet Australian wheat is still price competitive but the US keeps Australian wheat out of the US on the flimsy grounds of "quarantine" (something Australia complained loudly to the WTO as an artificial restriction of trade for years, which like most things that are not to the US's advantage, it simply ignored). This was eventually settled and the E3 visa was one byproduct of this.
But you can see just how screwed up the system is that factors like this cause visas to be created.
Others have posted about the whole H1B problem (quotas, etc) and the backlog of green card processing basically allowing employers to treat you like indentured servants. That needs to change.
Some argue H1B visas are used to pay substandard wages in lieu of employing domestic workers. The substandard wages bit is true but that's because of the H1B processing problem. The real problem for domestic software engineers at least is that most people who call themselves "engineers" or "programmers" suck.
I've been shocked at some of the people I've interviewed, their inability to code very simple problems and their complete lack of theoretical foundations. And those are the ones that make it past resume screening and phone screens".
The government needs to accept that tech companies are basically the most mobile in the world. Look at big tech companies and you'll see they need data centers, some of which need to be in the US (which really doesn't employ that many people). Everything else can be done from anywhere*. Barriers to entry, kneejerk legislation (eg Sarbanes-Oxley) and software patents are all contributing to driving the future Googles and Facebooks elsewhere.
All of this makes me a little sad actually because the US has forgotten it's route. The US is a country of immigrants (IIRC population 2 million in 1800, 50 million in 1900).
One of the reasons I've come to New York to work is because I want to see it. New York is the beating heart of commerce and you can see capitalism and commerce in every form here, some pretty, some not-so-pretty.
I want to see it before it doesn't exist anymore.
My picture of the US is one of decay, rotting from within, collapsing under a mountain of debt and unsustainable policies that will be its downfall. The Roman Empire was enormous and collapsed. The British Empire was enormous and collapsed. Don't think it can't happen again.
I do agree that the US immigration system sucks. As an Australian, you may not realize the current state of immigration policy in your own country.
I'm an American and I live and work in Sydney. I came in on the 457 subclass visa. Not sure if you're familiar with it. It's pretty much the same as the H1B (No E-3 equivalent in the other direction unfortunately). The employer has to prove the job can't be filled by a domestic worker. This particular visa program is also rife with abuse by employers looking to keep costs down [1]. A typical H1B visa holder in the USA would have their health insurance paid for by their employer. 457 visa holders are usually required to purchase their own since everyone else is covered under the national health care system. H1B visa holder's children in the USA can attend public schools for free. 457 visa holders in Australia have to pay public school tuition (~$5k/year/child) in Australia on top of paying normal federal and state taxes. Personally, I'm very satisfied with my situation but this isn't the case with all 457 visa holders.
Much like the US, Australia is a nation of immigrants. Most people I've met here are 2nd generation (i.e. their parents immigrated). Yet, there is a surprising amount of opposition to immigration[2].
"One of the reasons I've come to New York to work is because I want to see it. New York is the beating heart of commerce"
For me NY is the informal capital of mankind. That's exactly why I went there for vocation. Quite impressive. But it also got me wondering about what NY could have been by now i.e. What quantity of office and housing space was added to Manhattan in the last decades in relation to the decades before? Zoning laws are to me just one another expression of a society that wants things to stay the same, because it's quite good now. It's about preventinting new stuff from happening. When watching the NY-skyline, do I see the concrete manifestation of a vibrant people or rather the remnants of what made it the informal mankind capital?
"All of this makes me a little sad actually because the US has forgotten it's route."
Some economists argue that the demographic dividend played a key role in the economic booms of Ireland but especially China. They also argue for considerable growth to happen in India and Brazil because of that. To me, the US is the oldest example of demopgraphic dividend at work. It's immigrants-turn-citizens concept basically made the rest of the world their asset of which to expect demographic dividend. The harsh immigration-laws are not that different from around the world, but considering from how they once were, todays laws are a negative archievement. They are there to prevent stuff from happening.
"The Roman Empire was enormous and collapsed. The British Empire was enormous and collapsed. Don't think it can't happen again."
This attitude of preventing new stuff (or competition or abandonment) is a major obstacle. One obstacle the Romans didn't overcome and neither did the British.
PS: The book "The New Deal in Old Rome" (http://mises.org/books/newdealoldrome.pdf) is a fun read, that's telling the story of roman decay using the language known from modern politics.
In Canada, international students are given work permit up to 3 years after graduation and after 1 year of full-time employment they can apply for permanent residency. I think the US could benefit from a similar policy.
While I agree we need to encourage immigration, the "facts" stated in this article seem like a causation does not imply correlation argument that drive me nuts.
It's not a zero-sum game when you bring in bright people. Smart people create opportunity around them.
On the other hand, I'm not so enthusiastic about lowering immigration barriers so we can get cheap workers to robotically throw together CRUD forms. (I guess that work is outsourced, anyway?)
I believe humanity is approaching an important turning point that will either herald in a new era and a new way of thinking or there are going to be some dark times ahead.
The entire of human history has thus far been fueled by population growth. When there were 10 million of us, this wasn't a problem. When there were 100 million of us, this wasn't a problem. When there were 1 billion of us, it was mostly not a problem. Now as we zero in on 10 billion... it's becoming a problem.
The way our society and our economy works should in so many ways tell you this is true. Look at the urban decay that occurred in many American cities in the 20th century.
Urban decay post-WW2 was fuelled by the interstate system, the cheapening cost of owning a car and that it was cheaper to build new communities than it was to maintain existing infrastructure.
Some cities experienced negative population growth with devastating consequences (eg Detroit, Baltimore). Certainly in Detroit's case, there are large swathes of the city that really need to be returned to wilderness. But who's going to pay for the demolition, relocation and clean up?
The Western world is essentially dying with net migration being pretty much the only reason any Western country is growing at all. The social experiments of the early 20th century (ie state-funded retirement) are, at present rates, ultimately unsustainable when we get down to 3 or even 2 employed people pre retired person (initially it was in excess of 50 to 1 at least for Social Security).
An aging population is a natural consequence of slowing population growth, just like urban decay is. So far we've largely shown ourselves at being ill-equipped at dealing with either, except for politicking around migration, which basically just kicks that can further down the street.
It is my opinion that there need to be an awful lot less of us and there will be one day, one way or the other. As much as people point to space as a solution to these problems we have an economy built in basically digging not-that-deep holes for our metals. While there are metal-rich asteroids out there, the cost of moving, processing and using those materials is so many orders of magnitude more expensive (both realistically and conceivably) that I have to wonder if it will ever be comparable (although it might one day be viable just because every other way has become so expensive, which will be an earth-shattering adjustment for us all).
So migration is, I believe, a short term fix. But it doesn't address what I believe to be a key driver in unemployment: we're slowly automating our way out of the most unskilled jobs (and increasingly skilled jobs too). That too will be a challenge.
There are a lot of countries that lobby for their citizens to enjoy an open border policy where their people can be able to freely come to the US to live, work and own property. Oddly though, these countries do not have open border policies where Americans can come to live, work and own property in their countries.
Let's say you are British. You can move pretty freely throughout much of Europe, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, with a minimum of hassle.
If you are American, the situation is very different. There are very few countries you can easily emigrate to. Yet most countries want rights for their people to be able to immigrate to the US.
I would be in favor of a global open border policy. Eliminate passports, visas, and all restrictions on the flow of people. As opposed to now where through WTO style agreements goods travel much more freely than people.
But I don't support one sided policies where people can move easily in one direction but not the other.
[+] [-] kiba|14 years ago|reply
If you hear politicians, and if my perception are right, they talk about jobs. Not whether or not we get more purchasing power than ever before. Not whether or not our lifestyle is more fulfilling than ever before. Jobs. More jobs. Less jobs. More competitive Americans. No manufacturing jobs. Colleges not creating enough people to fill jobs. Robots are destroying our jobs. Robots need to be maintain by something or someone, probably another robot or human being.
But jobs are just proxy. A proxy for our self-worth, our independence, or whether or not we have a future. Jobs, for us, are just means to an end. Yes, some of us are musicians, football players, programmers, scientists, etc. We like our jobs. I suspect the vast majority of humans don't really enjoy all that much working their job.
Rather than talking about creating jobs and destroying jobs, which is an assumption that exists in a world where there are scarcity and there's boring things to do for humans to maintain their existence, why not talk about the end, what should our goal be in life? We can then rearrange our actions in life based on our conclusion what our life should be and what we want to achieve rather than just simply on what needed to be done at this point in time.
After all, if a strong FAI comes, we may not even have jobs. At the same time, we ought to figure out what's our life purpose other than going to a job and work for someone or operating a business just to simply maintain our existence. There's no longer a need to grow your food, goes to the hair saloon to cut someone's hair, pump the gas, etc. How are we going to live for the next 10,000 years and 10,000 years beyond that and so on?
[+] [-] potatolicious|14 years ago|reply
It's nice that you have the freedom and the time to ponder such ideological issues. It's nice that you're able to look higher on the hierarchy of needs rather than scrabbling for scraps. I mean that in the non-snarkiest of ways, really.
But for the vast majority of the population they need a job right now. They don't have time to worry about your high-minded concepts of personal fulfillment, and whether or not a FAI will usher in a utopia of zero scarcity. They need to make rent and put groceries in the fridge this week.
The politicians are focusing on jobs as a core issue because that's what's foremost on people's minds. It's foremost on people's minds because it's exactly what they need. They need more jobs in a stronger economy. Imagine if all the unemployed folk in this country just sat around waiting for the post-scarcity society to hit them upside the head!
[+] [-] teyc|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] marshallp|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] georgemcbay|14 years ago|reply
How do you know then that they'll be massive job creators? Certainly each of them had ambitious parents and that's something, but then so does just about everyone who actively works to immigrate to a new place for a better life... assuming we can't figure out who the next Brin will be when they are 6 or 10 (and we can't), is the author arguing we should just open up the floodgates to everyone with educated parents? Because that's a heckofalot of people.
[+] [-] HistoryInAction|14 years ago|reply
Personally, I think that Vinod Khosla and Manu Kumar are better examples. I'm of the understanding that Khosla didn't have a valid visa when Sun was founded, but an exemption was made because of the sheer success of the company from nearly day 1.
The other thing I want to look at is people like Robin Li of Baidu, American educated, employed by American companies, but when it came time to create a company, he went home. Possibly, even likely, that was because a company serving Chinese should be based in China, but it's certain that since he didn't have a green card, he wouldn't be able to get a visa as a founder to stay here. America loses when people who could stay here to found companies return to their country to create jobs and foreign competition there.
[+] [-] potatolicious|14 years ago|reply
The problem here is that the "immigrant" visa is really the same thing as a work visa, and that leads to a great deal of abuse.
For one thing, the eligibility is tied to an employer, who is incentivized to embellish, cheat, and otherwise finagle their way to a visa. The expectation that the visa is temporary also sets a lower bar for entry - even though many of these people will eventually become American PRs/citizens.
The recent trend to "stage" the H-1B green card process is a step in the right direction - though it doesn't go as far as it needs to. There is still a major problem of indentured servitude. Once an employee has a green card process in the pipeline their employer has them over a barrel - and many will not hesitate to use this as an opportunity for abuse.
Not to mention, with the green card backlog the way it is now, it would be years before "your huddled masses of immigrant entrepreneurs yearning to breathe free" are actually able to start businesses. First they have to go through ~8-10 years as a rank and file employee, before they're granted the legal freedom to pursue their own future. The startup visa would go a long way to alleviating that, though the heavy involvement of VCs in that initiative will mean that bootstrappers and other scrappy startups that don't want to raise hojillions in funding will be still at a severe disadvantage.
How do you fix this? IMO the US needs to setup a track for immigrants to immediately receive green cards, where having a job offer is not a prerequisite (though it would certainly help). The focus needs to shift away from fulfilling "temporary shortages" (which we all know is bullshit) to simply permanent, mass importation of worthy talent. Set up the process to filter people based on the assumption that they will permanently stay, as opposed the the current process where we'll let just about anyone in, since they're "temporary" H-1Bs anyways. This will raise the calibre of people you're letting in, and also make sure you're giving top talent maximum freedom once they're here. The whole "immigration policy masquerading as work permit" thing really needs to GTFO.
[+] [-] _delirium|14 years ago|reply
Which other countries are these? As the holder of an employer-tied 3-year temporary Danish work permit, with no possibility to even apply for the Danish equivalent of a green card until I've resided in the country with solid employment for at least 4 years (and passed a language exam, something the U.S. doesn't require), I don't think it can be this one...
Though to be fair, the Danish consulate was friendly and efficient with processing the employer-tied temporary permit.
[+] [-] HistoryInAction|14 years ago|reply
For startup visa, the latest version has other paths, involving $100k in US revenue or simply being a H1-B/student visa holder with sufficient assets/income to not be a drain on US taxpayers: http://kerry.senate.gov/press/release/?id=4e6a51f6-fb2b-4212... Meaning, there's less pure reliance on VCs as the gatekeepers for visas and green card, a la the criticism of the 2010 Startup Visa by folks like Vivek Wadhwa.
Additionally, the Lofgren-Polis IDEA Act opens up a whole new path, though one I don't think has any chance of passing in this current environment: http://www.usimmlawyer.com/news-blog/42-blog/293-rep-zoe-lof...
By and large, though, completely agree with the points here.
[+] [-] dredmorbius|14 years ago|reply
As idiotic as US work/immigration policies are, most countries are far worse. Europe particularly. Commonwealth nations possibly excepted.
In the developing / BRIC world, it's less bureaucracy and far more petty (and not so petty) corruption you have to deal with.
[+] [-] flourpower|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] microarchitect|14 years ago|reply
I also don't understand why the green card backlog isn't being handled efficiently. Surely, if somebody is paying, say more than 20k in income taxes every year for, say 5 years in a row, there is reason to believe their contribution to the country is a net positive. Why not just give them citizenship and be done with it?
As an outsider, I feel like the US is the opposite of an "agile" government. It seems like there is a lot bickering and fear-mongering at every level and important decisions are being made based on populism and emotional appeals rather than rational decision making. I'm not sure if this is really the case because my news sources are the likes of Reddit and the so-called "liberal media", but unfortunately this is perception I get.
[+] [-] tokenadult|14 years ago|reply
Yes. That is intentional by the design of the federal Constitution. A friend of mine, an engineer, was discussing American politics with me and another friend, a mathematics teacher, one day. The mathematics teacher decried the inefficiency of United States government. The engineer replied, "I'm an engineer. The one thing I'm afraid of is EFFICIENT government." Many Americans are strongly in agreement with Henry David Thoreau that "That government is best which governs least."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Disobedience_(Thoreau)#.2...
[+] [-] HistoryInAction|14 years ago|reply
For about every aspect of the US federal government, you're right: http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/us-government-blows-20000...
It's /really/ hard to manage the world's largest GDP effectively. Governmental gridlock tends towards the status quo and institutional inertia is huge. This is Vernon Vinge's 'to scale, you need complexity, but complexity inevitably leads to collapse' theories in action.
[+] [-] scarface548|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jammur|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nobody314159265|14 years ago|reply
So naturally they are wary of people coming along and doing the same to them.
This doesn't really apply to Canada.
[+] [-] incosta|14 years ago|reply
Foreign students have one year after graduation to find an employer, convert to H-1B and then ask the employer to sponsor the green card. Nothing wrong with this.
However, of course H1-B to green card to citizenship must be done in a more timely manner. In many cases it takes too long. The time spent on waiting for the green card (sometimes as long as 4-5 years or even more, due to slow bureaucracy) must be in some way counted towards the citizenship requirement of 5-year residency.
I think as baby-boomer generation starts to retire en-mass, U.S. will have no choice but to liberalize and simplify its immigration policy. It is competing against many other developed countries for younger workers and talent, and the earnings disparity is becoming less of a factor in many developing countries. There's just no way out but to make immigration process faster and more attractive if the U.S. wants to win.
[+] [-] HistoryInAction|14 years ago|reply
"But I disagree with author's suggestion that all US-educated graduates must be given green cards. A lot of them came to US to study because they could afford it (often via wealthy parents). I don't think it's fair to give green cards only because they graduated from a US university thanks to their rich parents." Very insightful!
However, the green card wait times are more due to scarcity, with many more people entering the green card pipeline than by law can exit each year, rather than slow bureaucracy.
I agree re: the future of immigration policy, but I think the talent war is even more important than you think. Right now, and since the 60s, US immigration policy has been aligned on a family-unification platform, and with strict numerical limits, a huge percentage of American immigration is taken up by family-based immigration. As liberal and pleasing as it is, it's going to have to go, as America will have to fully enter the competition for top talent.
[+] [-] akg_67|14 years ago|reply
From personal experience, everything is wrong with this H-1B visa (slavery to employer) and even with proposed Startup/ Entrepreneur Visa which again promotes slavery to "someone."
If US is serious, they should allow 5 year unrestricted visa to all foreign graduates from US universities (no government benefits during this period). With this visa, these graduates can either work for anyone or start business. The exit from this visa to green card should be based on specific number of people employed or revenue earned or income earned.
Keep it simple.
[+] [-] muzz|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] HistoryInAction|14 years ago|reply
We can't do A/B testing to see if our suspicions that we'd have more startups and more jobs for US citizens if we allowed more founders—not more blanket immigration, mind you—into the country. The people who do find a way in tend to be the best and the brightest of the pool, so our anecdata looks favorable. There seem to be indications that immigrants and first-generation citizens tend to be 'hungrier' than more established populations, though that doesn't say anything about success/failure rates.
From a physics perspective, it's like hunting dark matter. We suspect that job growth would result from passing Startup Visa or STEM Green Cards, but economics theories are nowhere close to the rigor of physics theories. VCs still only invest in solid, market-driven ideas. I'd rather trust to them and to the market as a whole as to who sees success than have the government throw up artificial barriers to block non-Americans from American networks of capital and talent, especially when it means the failure to launch of startups that might make my life better.
Kauffman does indicate that young companies produce the most net job growth in America: http://www.kauffman.org/newsroom/kauffman-foundation-analysi... , though as Steve Blank says, 'startups' are lumped together when there's a large differentiation that needs to be taken into account: http://steveblank.com/2011/09/01/why-governments-don%E2%80%9...
The best bit of public policy analysis I've seen on Startup Visa and implications for job growth is from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), but they studied the 2010 Startup Visa, which is much more limited than even the 2011 Startup Visa. The 2011 version of the bill doesn't address STEM Green Cards and is strictly limited in an attempt to pass a conservative House of Representatives, whose majority has a strong anti-immigration faction.
So we're left with all of the arguments that you state. However, note that a thoughtful person like yourself isn't the target audience of something on CNN. The NFAP analysis is probably more 'chewy' for someone who wants to dive into the issue.
EDIT: Forgot the NFAP link: http://www.nfap.com/pdf/092910NFAPPolicyBriefImmigrantEntrep...
[+] [-] nunb|14 years ago|reply
I believe in skilled immigration to the USA, and that the current system is badly b0rked (and in fact somewhat "geared" towards illegal immigration) but these articles, with their leaps of logic and poor reasoning strike me as a setback for any sort of immigration reform.
At least he's advocating, which is good, and given the low IQ of Congress, it probably doesn't matter that his articles leave much unanswered and generally fall short of being cogent arguments. But noise probably works better than cogency in this regard.
[+] [-] marshallp|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fragsworth|14 years ago|reply
There's an economic fallacy at place here. Jobs, in and of themselves, do not benefit us on the whole. You could give some number of people a "job" to walk around in circles all day long and pay them money for it, but the net effect would be that society sees no benefit from this. Productive jobs, however, are good things. There is a conflict, though: the more productive your job is, the fewer employees are necessary - actually resulting in fewer jobs.
Hopefully you have witnessed this first-hand over the last few decades. Travel agencies have been replaced by Priceline, Expedia, etc. Tax specialists have been replaced by TurboTax, TaxAct, etc. Even simple legal matters can be handled by LegalZoom and the like, reducing the need for lawyers. All manufactured media products (books, news, movies, music, games) are now transferred digitally, which eliminates the need for factory workers to produce physical products. Online banking eliminates the need for bank tellers. Countless other examples.
Essentially, technology kills jobs. We develop software and devices to handle what was traditionally done by people, and sell the services at a much cheaper rate because we don't have to pay for all the overhead that old services once required. This is a good thing, however.
Anyway, I'm all for immigration, and I'm all for tech companies. But the fact is they destroy jobs more than they create them, and are therefore partially responsible for the current unemployment rate. The logic behind this article is all backwards because of this.
[+] [-] muzz|14 years ago|reply
It is troubling that few readers pick up on the use of examples with gross jobs created and not net jobs created. In this case, Amit Arahoni's 9 jobs created are gross, not net. A more-clear example would be that of Craigslist. How many jobs has Craigslist created? Well, 30 jobs in gross, but likely a large negative number in net as it played a large part in displacing at least one entire industry (newspapers).
[+] [-] tomjen3|14 years ago|reply
I mean if all we wanted was jobs we could just outlaw gasoline, electricity and non-human powered generators. That would create jobs for untold millions.
It would also be utterly destructive for our standard of life/health/happiness/etc.
[+] [-] kmfrk|14 years ago|reply
I remember being told (as a European) in the equivalent of high school(?) that if I wanted to go to an American college, I would have to start preparations a year and a half in advance - mainly due to the time spent on processing visas.
I would have loved nothing better than to go to an American college, but, at least at the time, that made it neigh-impossible to apply for an American college, when studying at a national university or, hell, another university in Europe or Britain seemed so much easier.
I don't know what other people's experiences are, and it may be a cultural thing; maybe the process is otherwise facilitated in, say, India and China.
EDIT: FWIW, this was after 9/11. Just to account for whatever that may have changed.
[+] [-] HistoryInAction|14 years ago|reply
http://chronicle.com/article/Chinese-Students-Prove-a/129628...
[+] [-] cletus|14 years ago|reply
For example, I'm an Australian. That means I qualify for (and have) an E-3 visa. What's that you might ask? It's a special work visa created specifically for Australian nationals. It applies for two years and can be renewed indefinitely.
What's more, unlike an H1B visa, it's not subject to quotas and the employer doesn't first need to "prove" they couldn't find a suitably qualified domestic worker (a system fraught with abuse that simply acts as a wealth transfer system from companies to immigration lawyers).
The problem? When I need to renew it, it may take USCIS months. Plus it's more expensive than applying for a fresh visa. Also, once approved they renew your status not your visa. What does that mean? It means if you leave the country for any reason you don't have a valid visa to re-enter the US so you have to get a new visa anyway.
Basically, you need to leave the country every two years to apply for a new one (since you can't apply within the US, of course).
What's more, each time I will have to fill out the exact same set of questions (DS-160), make an appointment, give them my passport and wait for it to be returned.
Why does this visa exist? Essentially to settle a trade dispute between the US and Australia over wheat. Australia does not subsidize wheat. The US does (as does Europe) to a huge degree, yet Australian wheat is still price competitive but the US keeps Australian wheat out of the US on the flimsy grounds of "quarantine" (something Australia complained loudly to the WTO as an artificial restriction of trade for years, which like most things that are not to the US's advantage, it simply ignored). This was eventually settled and the E3 visa was one byproduct of this.
But you can see just how screwed up the system is that factors like this cause visas to be created.
Others have posted about the whole H1B problem (quotas, etc) and the backlog of green card processing basically allowing employers to treat you like indentured servants. That needs to change.
Some argue H1B visas are used to pay substandard wages in lieu of employing domestic workers. The substandard wages bit is true but that's because of the H1B processing problem. The real problem for domestic software engineers at least is that most people who call themselves "engineers" or "programmers" suck.
I've been shocked at some of the people I've interviewed, their inability to code very simple problems and their complete lack of theoretical foundations. And those are the ones that make it past resume screening and phone screens".
The government needs to accept that tech companies are basically the most mobile in the world. Look at big tech companies and you'll see they need data centers, some of which need to be in the US (which really doesn't employ that many people). Everything else can be done from anywhere*. Barriers to entry, kneejerk legislation (eg Sarbanes-Oxley) and software patents are all contributing to driving the future Googles and Facebooks elsewhere.
All of this makes me a little sad actually because the US has forgotten it's route. The US is a country of immigrants (IIRC population 2 million in 1800, 50 million in 1900).
One of the reasons I've come to New York to work is because I want to see it. New York is the beating heart of commerce and you can see capitalism and commerce in every form here, some pretty, some not-so-pretty.
I want to see it before it doesn't exist anymore.
My picture of the US is one of decay, rotting from within, collapsing under a mountain of debt and unsustainable policies that will be its downfall. The Roman Empire was enormous and collapsed. The British Empire was enormous and collapsed. Don't think it can't happen again.
[+] [-] ryanackley|14 years ago|reply
I'm an American and I live and work in Sydney. I came in on the 457 subclass visa. Not sure if you're familiar with it. It's pretty much the same as the H1B (No E-3 equivalent in the other direction unfortunately). The employer has to prove the job can't be filled by a domestic worker. This particular visa program is also rife with abuse by employers looking to keep costs down [1]. A typical H1B visa holder in the USA would have their health insurance paid for by their employer. 457 visa holders are usually required to purchase their own since everyone else is covered under the national health care system. H1B visa holder's children in the USA can attend public schools for free. 457 visa holders in Australia have to pay public school tuition (~$5k/year/child) in Australia on top of paying normal federal and state taxes. Personally, I'm very satisfied with my situation but this isn't the case with all 457 visa holders.
Much like the US, Australia is a nation of immigrants. Most people I've met here are 2nd generation (i.e. their parents immigrated). Yet, there is a surprising amount of opposition to immigration[2].
[1]http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/employers-avoid-fines-despite-visa...
[2]http://www.smh.com.au/national/allout-assault-over-issue-of-...
[+] [-] woodpanel|14 years ago|reply
For me NY is the informal capital of mankind. That's exactly why I went there for vocation. Quite impressive. But it also got me wondering about what NY could have been by now i.e. What quantity of office and housing space was added to Manhattan in the last decades in relation to the decades before? Zoning laws are to me just one another expression of a society that wants things to stay the same, because it's quite good now. It's about preventinting new stuff from happening. When watching the NY-skyline, do I see the concrete manifestation of a vibrant people or rather the remnants of what made it the informal mankind capital?
"All of this makes me a little sad actually because the US has forgotten it's route."
Some economists argue that the demographic dividend played a key role in the economic booms of Ireland but especially China. They also argue for considerable growth to happen in India and Brazil because of that. To me, the US is the oldest example of demopgraphic dividend at work. It's immigrants-turn-citizens concept basically made the rest of the world their asset of which to expect demographic dividend. The harsh immigration-laws are not that different from around the world, but considering from how they once were, todays laws are a negative archievement. They are there to prevent stuff from happening.
"The Roman Empire was enormous and collapsed. The British Empire was enormous and collapsed. Don't think it can't happen again."
This attitude of preventing new stuff (or competition or abandonment) is a major obstacle. One obstacle the Romans didn't overcome and neither did the British.
PS: The book "The New Deal in Old Rome" (http://mises.org/books/newdealoldrome.pdf) is a fun read, that's telling the story of roman decay using the language known from modern politics.
[+] [-] jellicle|14 years ago|reply
If that's true, why are you coming to the U.S.?
[+] [-] iamelgringo|14 years ago|reply
We're trying to get ammo, and then trying to hack together some press coverage to highlight these stories.
[+] [-] queensnake|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] barumrho|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ry0ohki|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|14 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] resnamen|14 years ago|reply
On the other hand, I'm not so enthusiastic about lowering immigration barriers so we can get cheap workers to robotically throw together CRUD forms. (I guess that work is outsourced, anyway?)
[+] [-] cletus|14 years ago|reply
The entire of human history has thus far been fueled by population growth. When there were 10 million of us, this wasn't a problem. When there were 100 million of us, this wasn't a problem. When there were 1 billion of us, it was mostly not a problem. Now as we zero in on 10 billion... it's becoming a problem.
The way our society and our economy works should in so many ways tell you this is true. Look at the urban decay that occurred in many American cities in the 20th century.
Urban decay post-WW2 was fuelled by the interstate system, the cheapening cost of owning a car and that it was cheaper to build new communities than it was to maintain existing infrastructure.
Some cities experienced negative population growth with devastating consequences (eg Detroit, Baltimore). Certainly in Detroit's case, there are large swathes of the city that really need to be returned to wilderness. But who's going to pay for the demolition, relocation and clean up?
The Western world is essentially dying with net migration being pretty much the only reason any Western country is growing at all. The social experiments of the early 20th century (ie state-funded retirement) are, at present rates, ultimately unsustainable when we get down to 3 or even 2 employed people pre retired person (initially it was in excess of 50 to 1 at least for Social Security).
An aging population is a natural consequence of slowing population growth, just like urban decay is. So far we've largely shown ourselves at being ill-equipped at dealing with either, except for politicking around migration, which basically just kicks that can further down the street.
It is my opinion that there need to be an awful lot less of us and there will be one day, one way or the other. As much as people point to space as a solution to these problems we have an economy built in basically digging not-that-deep holes for our metals. While there are metal-rich asteroids out there, the cost of moving, processing and using those materials is so many orders of magnitude more expensive (both realistically and conceivably) that I have to wonder if it will ever be comparable (although it might one day be viable just because every other way has become so expensive, which will be an earth-shattering adjustment for us all).
So migration is, I believe, a short term fix. But it doesn't address what I believe to be a key driver in unemployment: we're slowly automating our way out of the most unskilled jobs (and increasingly skilled jobs too). That too will be a challenge.
[+] [-] unknown|14 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] droithomme|14 years ago|reply
Let's say you are British. You can move pretty freely throughout much of Europe, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, with a minimum of hassle.
If you are American, the situation is very different. There are very few countries you can easily emigrate to. Yet most countries want rights for their people to be able to immigrate to the US.
I would be in favor of a global open border policy. Eliminate passports, visas, and all restrictions on the flow of people. As opposed to now where through WTO style agreements goods travel much more freely than people.
But I don't support one sided policies where people can move easily in one direction but not the other.
[+] [-] ypcx|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mbesto|14 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|14 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] mgh2|14 years ago|reply
I think Obama is starting to hear too: http://trendguardian.blogspot.com/2011/04/startup-america-te...