[thal3s]

> But China can continue to improve the quality of life for Chinese people if they don't do anything really stupid and end up isolated like Russia.

This is extremely unlikely. Half (HALF!) of China's 1.2B people will be dead by 2050. The CCP is almost certainly doomed to fracture/fail due to this factor alone. Additionally, Xi has elevated himself to cult-leader like status and killed every person who ever brought him bad news. No nation run like that will succeed for long.

Lastly, China imports vast quantities of food and oil and has a tiny navy. They are wholly dependent on the outside world - a point that Peter explores in greater depth in his earlier books.

[plonk]

> has a tiny navy

They have more ships than the US Navy, though they don’t beat it by tonnage. How can that be considered tiny?

[Zigurd]

There are a number of reasons why China's Navy is insufficient. A key reason is that it cannot defend China's oil supply. Not even close.