But long term, despite their history of moronic energy policy, I don't see the EU making itself dependent again on Russian gas (or any other critical commodity). Which is kind of a problem for a commodity driven economy like Russia.
The EU has some of the best energy policy in the world.
It's the fossil fuel industry claiming they don't, because good energy policy in the 21st century means dropping fossil fuels over the next couple of decades and the more and faster nations follow the EUs lead, the less power the fossil fuel industry and Russia/Saudi Arabia etc have.
That's why there were so many people excited in the comments here at the thought of europeans freezing to death this winter.
Finally after being mocked for decades for saying green energy was unreliable, and climate change didn't exist, they've been proved right by a fossil fuel producer tactically, but not strategically, cutting off their sales at short notice for political reasons during a war, lying about it being the EUs green policies at fault and failing to achieve anything by doing so.
One could argue reduced dependency on natural resource export could benefit russian economy in the long term because it undermines current regime, the root cause of the lack of growth during the last decade.
I think you overestimate the relevance of EU energy policies, especially looking backwards (as you emphasize its history). It's been more aspirational, but mostly the policymaking happens on national level. The carbon trading system is a commendable accomplishment though, even with all its faults.
I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices?
In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?
Germany has never rebuilt it's economy and never switched the energy source powering it. The rest of EU will just sit idly by and watch as the trend continues downward without taking any action. /s
Germany has never had competitive gas prices compared to the US or China. Germany competed despite the energy prices (electricity is even more expensive). Since Germany mostly sells premium products, they will probably be fine.
The profit margin’s of the energy companies are more important than the economy. Take UK with only 8% Russian imports, but prices have somehow doubled. Same story in the EU
The assumption here is also that gas prices stay high. They might very well be, they might be higher, but they might also go down. At the moment it's very hard to tell where this is going. If the Gas prices stay high for an extended period of time, the EU's smallest problem is probably going to be Germany.
Maybe France can take over, at a lower productive level certainly. We have less ideology in energy sourcing (I d say many of us may even be proud of nuclear power and I had enough insanely aggressive debate with our German friends to know there s someth wrong there in how they represent it), we can find a way to change our work culture to target profitability a bit more and we can take as many german refugees as we need to fill our skill gaps.
Germany is the most profitable most efficient economic engine in the EU, by far probably, but if it falters, we'll find another way, as we always have, and maybe end up with less millionaires.
One thing we wont do is allow Russia to start land grabbing unopposed in the hope they ll be nice and stop at Ukraine. We ve seen it before, many times, we've even done it ourselves, we know how it ends.
And the prices are soaring. I am currently under contract and have 'normal' price per month but my contract ends this year. A friend of mine showed me his currently price for energy (gas and electricity bill in one) and his price wend from 300 to a 1100 per month. For people having a low income this is devastating. Some people on welfare cut the gas line to avoid getting into billing issues.
I fear the future.
> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid.
He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could we look in the mirror? It's against the very core of who we are. Of course people are concerned, but the solutions are non-Russian sources of energy exclusively.
That’s what we assume will work when we apply sanctions on Russia.
If it was less serious, if it wasn’t in our faces that innocent people were dying, if it was something “far away” and “complicated” and not so one-sided. It would work.
Some (perhaps most) people are extremely selfish, even when it’s detrimental to themselves; you see it all the time with people not leaving enough space to collect luggage at the baggage claim at the airport, meaning everyone can’t see their bags and they can’t retrieve them without a kerfuffle anyway, or in the same way that everyone rushes to get off of a plane even when they prevent someone else from leaving who then will also be unable to leave causing an awkward deadlock.
People are gloriously selfish, and if you hit them in a place that affects them directly: they will turn.
The only reason we’re not is because it’s too close and too devastating for us to turn our eyes away.
Correct, the best way to unite a group is to attack its core values - a sure way to bring people together. If we, as Europeans, allow Russia to proceed, just to stay warm in winter, we'd give up on our core values, which are what makes us a democratic Europe.
That s what "european governments say" that putin thinks, not what he thinks. He is always looking for ways to use EU rules against itself, and thanks to lots of regulations, EU has tied itself in a knot here.
Also i don't think you re right. Europeans were fine with "let yemenis die" , and fine with "let armenians die" becuase of oil and gas respectively.
> There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians."
If I take a look at twitter, there are people saying exactly that [2]. Not using that phrasing, of course, but there people, even politicians (mostly from the left [0] and right [1] end of the spectrum), who demand the end of sanctions against Russia so we can have cheap gas again.
There are different ways to end the conflicts and different degrees of support possible. Some European countries were in favour of pushing for peace talks far earlier but the current Ukrainian government has complete support from the USA and territorial ambition of its own.
Belligerents are not into it out of the goodness of their heart you know. It’s not really about saving Ukrainian lives. It’s actually far from obvious that prolonging the war saves lives. But most of the EU has taken a very Atlantist position on this conflict and at this point it’s probably better to keep going and significantly neuter Russia.
To me it's more that Russia has committed an extremely autocracy-typical error - bad information, overemphasis on territory due to reliance on resource economy, underestimating the enemy resolve - and since we've lived for many decades under the threat of the UdSSR, this is ... well, revenge would be the wrong word. I think everybody was content to let Russia be an inoffensively harmless behemoth. But if it's going to go back to its old games, and set itself up for such an opening embarrassment as it has, I think everybody is very willing to let it bleed basically arbitrarily - to some limit, since Ukraine is willing to foot the bill in bodies. So even if it hurts us economically, as long as it hurts Russia more, that's fine.
This is how you stand up to a bully. Every child knows this instinctively. Putin overplayed, and now he gets to stew in it.
Expensive solution even so. In Romania (One of Europe's poorest countries) this month's price for a kilowatt is 57 cents (if you use > 300 kw per month on average). The UK price is about 36 pence per kw (41 cents).
It's not just "killing ukrainians". By invading Ukraine, Putin threatens Europe. In his list of countries he thinks should be under Russian control, there are many EU countries: the Baltic states, Poland, Slovenia, etc. The invasion of Ukraine is an existential threat for the EU so it's not something on which it can back down if it has any sense.
The comment section of every article about the energy crisis, as well as the counter of every bar, has a few people going the exact route of "we never voted for fighting for Ukraine, they're far away, this is all USA using us as pawn, why would we be cold for them, etc..." Some of those people might actually be real humans as opposed to Russian bots.
So far, they seem to be a minority. The hardliners wanting us to go all in the fight are an even smaller minority. The vast majority are attentist (as usual), and governments (at least mine) are printing all the money they can to pay for energy bills, to avoid reaching a tipping point of discontentment.
I agree with you that Putin might have underestimated the capacity of EU members to support each other and Ukraine against his game of on and off with gas.
I also would not cry victory against "General Winter" on the 19th of September.
> There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians."
We killed one of our former presidents at the execution wall because of rationalized food and cold in our homes. I am European.
And before anyone comes in and says: "you killed Ceausescu because you wanted communism deposed!". No, we didn't, we wanted "communism" that would provide us with food in the stores and heat in our homes, "communism with a human face", as they were calling it. That's why at the 1990 general elections we overwhelmingly elected a former Communist Party apparatchik.
My remark is of a philosophical nature how a culture/society creates its myths and their role in the dynamics of elites and the subjects. None of the comments, neither the original article nor on this thread cover even 1% of the reality on the origin of the crisis (energy), nor does it explain how the current EU energy market has been developed by whom and who it keeps in power, and what might be the solution (bashing Putin and puffin our proverbial chest is not it I know that much).
How such medieval mentality that we display here and in general media (us vs Putin) is so pervasive gives little hope that we even care to know the truth, care for real solution, or even care for ourselves. There is just so much to unpack that there is no chance here from such a simple sentence.
> There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians."
Plenty of people do. Plenty of people aren't even waiting until they're code, they just say "We might be cold later, so it's fine to kill Ukrainians."
Hell, many even say it's Ukrainian's own fault that they're getting killed for resisting, and our fault for enabling them by sending them weapons.
Putin is counting on the rest of the world to be predominantly a bunch of immoral, spineless cowards, and he's not even that far off with that assumption.
Sure. We all remember the solidarity EU showed among its members during the previous economic crisis and during COVID.
I'm sure we're all happy to support Eurocrats again in their quest to get Ukraine in NATO for no good reason at all and -like they say- fight Putin to the last Ukrainian.
I'm in Sweden where electricity rates have gone up markedly, especially in in the lower half of the country. Average rates have gone up ~300%-400%, peak rates up to ~2500%. Those peak rates drive up the daily rates for those who have such a contract while those who have hourly rates can end up paying more than 10 kr ( ~$1) per kWh while the rate is up there - a period of a few hours around 08.00 in the morning, 17.00 in the afternoon. Where the rates end up depends on the demand from "the continent" - mostly Germany - as well as the availability of wind to fill in the gap left by the "green" party being responsible for shutting down half of the nuclear capacity. The oil-fired peak plant in Karlshamn has been running more hours this year than in the last 10 years combined, burning up to 140.000 litres of heavy fuel oil per hour.
Interestingly that peak power plant has recently released its financial figures for last year [1]. It made a profit of 297 million kr (~$28 million) while consuming 30.000 tons of fuel oil, generating ~110 GWh. This roughly translates to ~$1 profit per kg of fuel oil burned, ~$2.70 profit per generated kWh. This shows the discrepancy between the actual cost of electricity and the market rates.
Putin tells Europe: if you want gas then open Nord Stream 2
"President Vladimir Putin on Friday denied Russia had anything to do with Europe's energy crisis, saying that if the European Union wanted more gas it should lift sanctions preventing the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Speaking to reporters after the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan, Putin blamed what he called "the green agenda" for the energy crisis, and insisted that Russia would fulfil its energy obligations.
"The bottom line is, if you have an urge, if it's so hard for you, just lift the sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which is 55 billion cubic metres of gas per year, just push the button and everything will get going," Putin said."
He is obviously lying. Russia willingly cut supplies on all other pipeline to well under 20% of usual flow [1],
and even those 20% are there to keep the system running. Nord Stream 2 was never put in production.
Anyone vested in the topic would understand that he says nonsense.
However, the TV audience back home sees a picture of a confident leader.
He is also hoping that fringe influencers around the world pick his lies in their agenda.
It's kinda hard to take the proposal seriously when Gazprom has been cutting the amount of gas transmitted through Nord Steam 1 throughout the year. Last I heard was that Nord Steam 1 was delivering 25% of its intended capacity.
Alternatively, "Putin declined further financing of his war from Europe, having filled coffers, sending climate disaster ravaged Europe into reluctant fossil energy rampdown".
[+] [-] helsinkiandrew|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cm2187|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ZeroGravitas|3 years ago|reply
It's the fossil fuel industry claiming they don't, because good energy policy in the 21st century means dropping fossil fuels over the next couple of decades and the more and faster nations follow the EUs lead, the less power the fossil fuel industry and Russia/Saudi Arabia etc have.
That's why there were so many people excited in the comments here at the thought of europeans freezing to death this winter.
Finally after being mocked for decades for saying green energy was unreliable, and climate change didn't exist, they've been proved right by a fossil fuel producer tactically, but not strategically, cutting off their sales at short notice for political reasons during a war, lying about it being the EUs green policies at fault and failing to achieve anything by doing so.
[+] [-] Klaster_1|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fulafel|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] skc|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] elforce002|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Ambolia|3 years ago|reply
In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?
[+] [-] petrut_m|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] throwaway473825|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] waterfallr|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] the_mitsuhiko|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] xwolfi|3 years ago|reply
Germany is the most profitable most efficient economic engine in the EU, by far probably, but if it falters, we'll find another way, as we always have, and maybe end up with less millionaires.
One thing we wont do is allow Russia to start land grabbing unopposed in the hope they ll be nice and stop at Ukraine. We ve seen it before, many times, we've even done it ourselves, we know how it ends.
[+] [-] ivolimmen|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dvfjsdhgfv|3 years ago|reply
He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could we look in the mirror? It's against the very core of who we are. Of course people are concerned, but the solutions are non-Russian sources of energy exclusively.
[+] [-] dijit|3 years ago|reply
That’s what we assume will work when we apply sanctions on Russia.
If it was less serious, if it wasn’t in our faces that innocent people were dying, if it was something “far away” and “complicated” and not so one-sided. It would work.
Some (perhaps most) people are extremely selfish, even when it’s detrimental to themselves; you see it all the time with people not leaving enough space to collect luggage at the baggage claim at the airport, meaning everyone can’t see their bags and they can’t retrieve them without a kerfuffle anyway, or in the same way that everyone rushes to get off of a plane even when they prevent someone else from leaving who then will also be unable to leave causing an awkward deadlock.
People are gloriously selfish, and if you hit them in a place that affects them directly: they will turn.
The only reason we’re not is because it’s too close and too devastating for us to turn our eyes away.
[+] [-] Helmut10001|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] seydor|3 years ago|reply
Also i don't think you re right. Europeans were fine with "let yemenis die" , and fine with "let armenians die" becuase of oil and gas respectively.
[+] [-] prox|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mr_mitm|3 years ago|reply
If I take a look at twitter, there are people saying exactly that [2]. Not using that phrasing, of course, but there people, even politicians (mostly from the left [0] and right [1] end of the spectrum), who demand the end of sanctions against Russia so we can have cheap gas again.
[0] https://www.sahra-wagenknecht.de/de/article/3189.hebt-die-sa...
[1] https://www.merkur.de/politik/afd-chef-tino-chrupalla-ukrain...
[2] https://twitter.com/GBri1208/status/1571227979266531328
[+] [-] WastingMyTime89|3 years ago|reply
There are different ways to end the conflicts and different degrees of support possible. Some European countries were in favour of pushing for peace talks far earlier but the current Ukrainian government has complete support from the USA and territorial ambition of its own.
Belligerents are not into it out of the goodness of their heart you know. It’s not really about saving Ukrainian lives. It’s actually far from obvious that prolonging the war saves lives. But most of the EU has taken a very Atlantist position on this conflict and at this point it’s probably better to keep going and significantly neuter Russia.
[+] [-] FeepingCreature|3 years ago|reply
This is how you stand up to a bully. Every child knows this instinctively. Putin overplayed, and now he gets to stew in it.
[+] [-] vixen99|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cm2187|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Traubenfuchs|3 years ago|reply
A few days ago I walked past very loud protests of people demanding peace and good relationships with Russia, in Vienna.
[+] [-] phtrivier|3 years ago|reply
So far, they seem to be a minority. The hardliners wanting us to go all in the fight are an even smaller minority. The vast majority are attentist (as usual), and governments (at least mine) are printing all the money they can to pay for energy bills, to avoid reaching a tipping point of discontentment.
I agree with you that Putin might have underestimated the capacity of EU members to support each other and Ukraine against his game of on and off with gas.
I also would not cry victory against "General Winter" on the 19th of September.
[+] [-] paganel|3 years ago|reply
We killed one of our former presidents at the execution wall because of rationalized food and cold in our homes. I am European.
And before anyone comes in and says: "you killed Ceausescu because you wanted communism deposed!". No, we didn't, we wanted "communism" that would provide us with food in the stores and heat in our homes, "communism with a human face", as they were calling it. That's why at the 1990 general elections we overwhelmingly elected a former Communist Party apparatchik.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_and_execution_of_Nicolae...
[+] [-] goatsneez|3 years ago|reply
My remark is of a philosophical nature how a culture/society creates its myths and their role in the dynamics of elites and the subjects. None of the comments, neither the original article nor on this thread cover even 1% of the reality on the origin of the crisis (energy), nor does it explain how the current EU energy market has been developed by whom and who it keeps in power, and what might be the solution (bashing Putin and puffin our proverbial chest is not it I know that much).
How such medieval mentality that we display here and in general media (us vs Putin) is so pervasive gives little hope that we even care to know the truth, care for real solution, or even care for ourselves. There is just so much to unpack that there is no chance here from such a simple sentence.
[+] [-] misja111|3 years ago|reply
Most of the proponents of giving in to Putin's tempting offer are coming from the right populist AFD party or from former East Germany.
[+] [-] DarkWiiPlayer|3 years ago|reply
Plenty of people do. Plenty of people aren't even waiting until they're code, they just say "We might be cold later, so it's fine to kill Ukrainians."
Hell, many even say it's Ukrainian's own fault that they're getting killed for resisting, and our fault for enabling them by sending them weapons.
Putin is counting on the rest of the world to be predominantly a bunch of immoral, spineless cowards, and he's not even that far off with that assumption.
[+] [-] thrown_22|3 years ago|reply
Give it one good cold winter and Ukrainians will also become sub-humans.
[+] [-] MetalHead|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] usedonce3rty4|3 years ago|reply
I'm sure we're all happy to support Eurocrats again in their quest to get Ukraine in NATO for no good reason at all and -like they say- fight Putin to the last Ukrainian.
[+] [-] Heyso|3 years ago|reply
And it is fine killing russians for you I suppose ? Because "they are the bad guys".
And maybe you are okay to kill peoples in middle east, because they need "democraty", they have "terrorists", and their leader is a "dictator".
The very core of who we are ? Brainwashed. That's what we are.
[+] [-] SURA|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] the_third_wave|3 years ago|reply
Interestingly that peak power plant has recently released its financial figures for last year [1]. It made a profit of 297 million kr (~$28 million) while consuming 30.000 tons of fuel oil, generating ~110 GWh. This roughly translates to ~$1 profit per kg of fuel oil burned, ~$2.70 profit per generated kWh. This shows the discrepancy between the actual cost of electricity and the market rates.
[1] https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/vinsten-for-karlshamnsverke...
[+] [-] uomopertica|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Heyso|3 years ago|reply
"President Vladimir Putin on Friday denied Russia had anything to do with Europe's energy crisis, saying that if the European Union wanted more gas it should lift sanctions preventing the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Speaking to reporters after the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan, Putin blamed what he called "the green agenda" for the energy crisis, and insisted that Russia would fulfil its energy obligations.
"The bottom line is, if you have an urge, if it's so hard for you, just lift the sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which is 55 billion cubic metres of gas per year, just push the button and everything will get going," Putin said."
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-putin-says-m...
[+] [-] sam_lowry_|3 years ago|reply
Anyone vested in the topic would understand that he says nonsense.
However, the TV audience back home sees a picture of a confident leader.
He is also hoping that fringe influencers around the world pick his lies in their agenda.
[1] https://berthub.eu/gazmon/
[+] [-] Hamuko|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Proven|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] s9w|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] fulafel|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] diimdeep|3 years ago|reply
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2#US_sanctions_and...
[2] > Alternatives to Russian supplies—including LNG from the U.S. and other countries
[+] [-] yread|3 years ago|reply
Russia: NATO is at war with us. We're not at war with anyone cause it's a special military operation
Everyone else: Russia and Ukraine are at war