[melonrusk]

Late addition:

It's actually worse than that. If we take a population with only median and maximum talents, the probabilities for each event are: halving: p=0.5, doubling because median-or-above talent: p=0.5*0.6. Meaning that in 80% of the events for a given actor the talent is not considered at all.

So the result that luck plays a larger part isn't an emergent property of the model, it was explicitly baked into the model from the start.

It wouldn't be unfair to call this paper fraudulent.

DOI: 10.1142/S0219525918500145