[throwawaygal7]

Since Global petroleum supply and demand is inelastic even a small shortfall in Global Production will result in much higher prices

In the turmoil of regime change in Russia production would fall and probably not come back online again for decades

When the wall fell Russian production declined and has never reached its 1980s Peak because of the geography of Russia. In fact I think most of the wells that were turned off at that time have never come back online and recent production increases are due to new infrastructure being built

[anonAndOn]

IIUC, once an arctic well is stopped, it freezes and bursts and can never be used again.