Why aren't the westerners protesting more? Seriously, where are my peace and love protests? In many countries people don't care much anymore, they 've resigned that they can't change things, this is a high level long strategic game in which their opinion doesn't matter. We 've willy-nilly removed each other's mass media from the view, despite our hyperconnectedness. This is what you get after decades of the west emulating the dictators of the east in their authoritarianism.
We need a new peace movement, not one that is tied to progressive sensitivities.
I think most westerners feel that peace-and-love aren't an option here. Even most pacifists believe that a country has the right to defend itself, and nearly everybody outside the Russian sphere of influence sees this as Ukrainian self-defense.
There might be protests if Westerners were putting their lives on the line here, but they aren't. I'm told there are some protests in Germany about the very real hardship of losing Russian gas, but I think they see Russian aggression at fault and most would rather work around it.
Which is to say: most westerners see their governments doing more or less the right thing, and aren't protesting. They see it as highly unlikely that they've been so misled about the situation in Ukraine as to think that it should surrender to Russia.
Pacifists have always had to contend with rhetoric about "just wars", and this is one of the clearest examples they've seen in decades. They've certainly protested against many unjust Western wars -- usually not terribly effectively, but they did come out. And I think they would if they felt it was relevant now.
No amount of exposure to Russia's mass media is likely to change their minds about that. Such as today, with Russian media announcing a 99+% result in a "referendum". They can't even begin to imagine that this will inspire protests from Western pacifists.
Yes, this is correct, we don't protest much in the West. When the government acts in a way that we don't agree with then we may protest a bit, as was the case before the Iraq invasion, but then after a few days/weeks we stop protesting and go back to work , so that we can put food on the table.
It just looks that Russians themselves don't want to die in the war but otherwise supported it.
I was reading vk.com and generally there was 1 post or comment against the war in Ukraine for every 10 or 20 posts pro-war.
Now the ratio is 1 post against the draft versus 1 post pro-draft.
You see the change? Russians mostly supported the war and those few people who were ready to protest against the war were simply overwhelmed and suppressed by those who supported it. Some people live in bubble where they see that everybody around them thinks similarly to them but that doesn't seem to be the whole reality in Russia.
I am not convinced about the resistance against covid restrictions in Russia. Russia had its own share of lockdowns and restrictions. It wasn't as free as Sweden. It avoided some most stupid ones like vaccine mandates. But the UK also didn't have vaccine mandates. Was it due to people actively resisting? Possibly, but I don't think you had something so active as Canadian convoy in February 2022. It can rather be explained that the authorities were not really very eager to introduce those measures in the first place. When they encountered even lukewarm resistance, they gave up because vaccine mandates were not effective at all.
Look, Russia had abysmal vaccination rates among elderly (the only measure that really mattered). That shows the failure of public health institutions. The UK (no mandates) and Canada (strong mandates) both had very good vaccine coverage among elderly – which shows that regardless of mandates, it is possible to ensure high vaccination uptake among risk groups. Russia doesn't have that and mandates wouldn't have helped anyway. No wonder authorities gave up so quickly even with a moderate resistance to those measures.
> I was reading vk.com and generally there was 1 post or comment against the war in Ukraine for every 10 or 20 posts pro-war.
In a climate where protesting against the war can get you beaten up, arrested, and sent to jail for 20 years, I wonder why the numbers are like that... I wonder.
I like how you quickly switched subjects to vaccines ....
Russia didnt have anti vax protest because they didnt have mandates. They didnt have mandates because their own vaccine was kind of shit and ineffective just like Chinese one.
I'm not certain social media is ever a good sample space for this sort of thing. We're all too aware that certain platforms lean certain directions and I believe VK is essentially owned and operated by the government, having been taken from it's original owner, Pavel Durov.
Posting anti-war, and therefore anti-government / anti-state sentiment on a platform essentially monitored and run by an authoritarian regime seems like the least likely form of protest you will see, as firstly it's most likely to be censored, secondly it's the easiest way to oust yourself to the authorities, and thirdly even if posted securely will be simply seen to be a weak protest/bot.
My wife is Russian and quite a lot of my friends and obviously relatives are Russian. All are against the war (that I know of), and were so before mobilisation.
It's true to say mobilisation has made people more concerned, but hardly fair to claim that people supported the war before. Of those who aren't anti-war, I'd take a guess that most fall into a neutral camp where they're trying to continue living their life as normally as possible knowing that realistically there isn't much they can do to stop the war that won't involve destroying the rest of their life with no impact on Putin's regime.
The consequences of opposing the war have always been abysmal in Russia. Anti-war sentiment online or in person can come with a 15 year prison sentence. Rape and assault are incredibly common in Russian prisons and the likelihood of returning to normal life is very slim as many Russian firms don't touch ex-convicts.
Quite often people quote a Levada Center poll suggesting 70% of Russians support the war/government position, but usually omits how many refused to answer the poll. These pollsters call you and ask if you'd like to answer questions about Putin / government / war, at which point most people hang up because in the moment they don't know if the Levada Center is independent/government controlled. The very few polls that are concluded will mostly lean to people that support (or outwardly pretend to support) the government, which is hardly a fair metric for judging opinion. The alleged 30% who went through with the poll and answered negatively about the government are braver than I'd ever be. I'd hang up.
The only real way to gauge Russian opinion is to befriend and converse with them behind a closed door. I know it's anecdotal again, but in my many travels to Russia, most people express anti-government views behind closed doors, and this most likely extends to the war.
I think in the West we're too quick to demand people in more repressed states do more to protest. A common statement I've heard the past few months (especially in relation to my wife, family and friends) is why they don't protest, why they don't overthrow Putin's regime. The consequences of doing any of that are so much higher, and if the positions were swapped I can hardly see Western citizens doing what they demand the Russians do.
seydor|3 years ago
We need a new peace movement, not one that is tied to progressive sensitivities.
jfengel|3 years ago
There might be protests if Westerners were putting their lives on the line here, but they aren't. I'm told there are some protests in Germany about the very real hardship of losing Russian gas, but I think they see Russian aggression at fault and most would rather work around it.
Which is to say: most westerners see their governments doing more or less the right thing, and aren't protesting. They see it as highly unlikely that they've been so misled about the situation in Ukraine as to think that it should surrender to Russia.
Pacifists have always had to contend with rhetoric about "just wars", and this is one of the clearest examples they've seen in decades. They've certainly protested against many unjust Western wars -- usually not terribly effectively, but they did come out. And I think they would if they felt it was relevant now.
No amount of exposure to Russia's mass media is likely to change their minds about that. Such as today, with Russian media announcing a 99+% result in a "referendum". They can't even begin to imagine that this will inspire protests from Western pacifists.
zubairq|3 years ago
AzzieElbab|3 years ago
NoPie|3 years ago
I was reading vk.com and generally there was 1 post or comment against the war in Ukraine for every 10 or 20 posts pro-war.
Now the ratio is 1 post against the draft versus 1 post pro-draft.
You see the change? Russians mostly supported the war and those few people who were ready to protest against the war were simply overwhelmed and suppressed by those who supported it. Some people live in bubble where they see that everybody around them thinks similarly to them but that doesn't seem to be the whole reality in Russia.
I am not convinced about the resistance against covid restrictions in Russia. Russia had its own share of lockdowns and restrictions. It wasn't as free as Sweden. It avoided some most stupid ones like vaccine mandates. But the UK also didn't have vaccine mandates. Was it due to people actively resisting? Possibly, but I don't think you had something so active as Canadian convoy in February 2022. It can rather be explained that the authorities were not really very eager to introduce those measures in the first place. When they encountered even lukewarm resistance, they gave up because vaccine mandates were not effective at all.
Look, Russia had abysmal vaccination rates among elderly (the only measure that really mattered). That shows the failure of public health institutions. The UK (no mandates) and Canada (strong mandates) both had very good vaccine coverage among elderly – which shows that regardless of mandates, it is possible to ensure high vaccination uptake among risk groups. Russia doesn't have that and mandates wouldn't have helped anyway. No wonder authorities gave up so quickly even with a moderate resistance to those measures.
netsharc|3 years ago
In a climate where protesting against the war can get you beaten up, arrested, and sent to jail for 20 years, I wonder why the numbers are like that... I wonder.
rasz|3 years ago
Russia didnt have anti vax protest because they didnt have mandates. They didnt have mandates because their own vaccine was kind of shit and ineffective just like Chinese one.
sw104|3 years ago
Posting anti-war, and therefore anti-government / anti-state sentiment on a platform essentially monitored and run by an authoritarian regime seems like the least likely form of protest you will see, as firstly it's most likely to be censored, secondly it's the easiest way to oust yourself to the authorities, and thirdly even if posted securely will be simply seen to be a weak protest/bot.
My wife is Russian and quite a lot of my friends and obviously relatives are Russian. All are against the war (that I know of), and were so before mobilisation.
It's true to say mobilisation has made people more concerned, but hardly fair to claim that people supported the war before. Of those who aren't anti-war, I'd take a guess that most fall into a neutral camp where they're trying to continue living their life as normally as possible knowing that realistically there isn't much they can do to stop the war that won't involve destroying the rest of their life with no impact on Putin's regime.
The consequences of opposing the war have always been abysmal in Russia. Anti-war sentiment online or in person can come with a 15 year prison sentence. Rape and assault are incredibly common in Russian prisons and the likelihood of returning to normal life is very slim as many Russian firms don't touch ex-convicts.
Quite often people quote a Levada Center poll suggesting 70% of Russians support the war/government position, but usually omits how many refused to answer the poll. These pollsters call you and ask if you'd like to answer questions about Putin / government / war, at which point most people hang up because in the moment they don't know if the Levada Center is independent/government controlled. The very few polls that are concluded will mostly lean to people that support (or outwardly pretend to support) the government, which is hardly a fair metric for judging opinion. The alleged 30% who went through with the poll and answered negatively about the government are braver than I'd ever be. I'd hang up.
The only real way to gauge Russian opinion is to befriend and converse with them behind a closed door. I know it's anecdotal again, but in my many travels to Russia, most people express anti-government views behind closed doors, and this most likely extends to the war.
I think in the West we're too quick to demand people in more repressed states do more to protest. A common statement I've heard the past few months (especially in relation to my wife, family and friends) is why they don't protest, why they don't overthrow Putin's regime. The consequences of doing any of that are so much higher, and if the positions were swapped I can hardly see Western citizens doing what they demand the Russians do.
tksiden|3 years ago
In Germany, people are rebelling against the usa. They believe Joe Biden had nordstream destroyed