[newbie2020]

EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least. If everyone other than Toyota goes completely electric, Toyota is going to be the monopoly automaker in every underdeveloped country and will be laughing all the way to the bank. I’m with the Toyota CEO on this one. If you’ve stepped outside a devolved country for even a few days… I just can’t fathom how all-electric is going to be realistic

[freddie_mercury]

I live in Vietnam and we have EVs for "normal people" here.

EV doesn't mean "cars". The V is for vehicles. We've had electric scooters on the roads for many years. In some cities, especially in the north they are nearly the majority of vehicles on the road.

But even if you limit yourself to cars, a friend just bought a Volvo S90 Recharge electric car to drive in Ho Chi Minh City.

And the first electric bus route launched earlier this year.

Toyota will never be very popular in Vietnam. If anything the Kia Smile is probably the most popular car and will be for a long time.

[potatolicious]

If there's one thing I've learned is that one shouldn't underestimate the sheer speed at which a maturing technology cheapens itself in a drive downmarket.

Cars themselves went from being a rich person's curiosity to mostly-affordable to ubiquitous in the space of 50 years.

Airline travel went from a luxury for the rich to broadly affordable in about ~30 years.

For more recent examples see smartphones - in less than 10 years it's gone from exclusively high-end device to near-universal adoption across the world.

It's often hard to figure out what technologies will stick and what will never resolve fundamental flaws - but once it sticks in the high-end market there is a good bet it will rapidly drive its way down the price scale, at a far faster speed than you might expect.

[lamnk]

> In some cities, especially in the north they are nearly the majority of vehicles on the road.

lol, do you really live in Vietnam?

How many electric scooters do you see on the street in compare to the gasoline counterparts? Honda alone deliver about 2.7 million bikes per year in Vietnam. All of the Honda bikes are ICE. The number of new electric scooters is not even six figures.

> Toyota will never be very popular in Vietnam.

Recently Toyota is not as popular as some years ago. But they still ship the most passenger cars among other manufacturers last year.

[csomar]

> But even if you limit yourself to cars, a friend just bought a Volvo S90 Recharge electric car to drive in Ho Chi Minh City.

The heck does this mean? Suddenly, vietnam is going to follow the trend and buy electric cars? This car costs something like $60k in Vietnam. The country gdp per capita is $2700. Most people who can buy cars will probably buy an old gas car.

[Gravityloss]

Buses and taxis make the sense to switch to EV:s first, since they drive the most and the total lifetime cost is dominated by energy cost and maintenance, not the investment.

If you think about the limited battery supply chain, with the minerals, components, modules etc, it doesn't make so much sense to put them to huge battery SUV:s that mostly just sit on the driveway or office parking lot.

This too will eventually happen, but it's better for the economy and the climate to put them where they are actually displacing the most fossil fuels.

[ladyattis]

I think that's part of the problem I see with the discussion regarding EVs in that everything is framed with the concept of a car and that some how all cities across the world will have the same kind of infrastructure standards (aka US styled stroads, Euclidean zoning, and so forth). If anything, EVs like you stated are likely to be slimmer, slower, and more useful to get around on than just replacing the SUV's ICE components with batteries and electric motors.

[flakeoil]

Adding to that, vehicles with built in solar panels will also add some attractiveness to this for development countries. No need to pay for fuel/electricity.

Sure it might take up to a full day to get 50-100 miles in the battery, but with smaller vehicles (three wheelers, motor bikes etc) it will definitely work out. Certainly considering many development countries are mostly sunny places like south east Asia, Africa, and south America.

[yrgulation]

EV sales are going up everywhere, never mind op, its just the age old chauvinist speak.

[JKCalhoun]

Yes, but there's no profit in electric scooters for Toyota — anyone can make them.

[onpensionsterm]

Vietnam's transport stats are skewed by insane import and luxury taxes.

[kumarvvr]

Dude, Tata just released a new EV, Tata Tiago, which has a range of 250 km, charges in 7 hours (or 1 hour fast charging).

Costs Rs. 9 lakhs, about 11,000 USD. They give a 7 year battery warranty.

For coty commutes, which is most of car usage in India, this is a perfect spot.

And Tata, has proven EV tech, via its Nexon EV range (400 km range, 22000 USD for the highest end version).

Tata cars have solid build quality, great resale value and are blindly trusted by many Indians.

[nitinreddy88]

It doesn't cost 9 lakhs. It costs 19 lakhs (about 23,000 USD). Tata cars never had solid build quality nor blindly trusted by Indians. Please state facts with sources than making false claims

[reacharavindh]

Yeah, I don't know if I would associate Tata cars with "solid build quality, and blindly trsuted".. Cheap, less safe, but made for Indian roads - sure..

India's car industry is a bit of a sad story. The market is flooded with cheaper cars that would never think of showing up to any safety tests. The Volkswagens, Toyotas, and Fords that do come to the market are "made for India" models which means they are severely handicapped in the safety department in order to cut the costs to compete. VW at least a few years ago when I knew would sell you the same car platform, but good luck trying to get service for it anywhere in India without paying near German costs.

I have been living outside India for a long time, so my impressions may be outdated.

[legutierr]

> EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least.

The largest EV market right now is China, and in India and other similar markets battery-swapping auto-rickshaws are increasingly common.

EVs in developing markets won't look like EVs in North America and Europe, but that doesn't mean that they won't be massive EV markets.

[seanmcdirmid]

EVs have already hit it big in China now for more than a decade in the form of electric bicycles (the cheap kind, not the fancy > $1k ones we want in the west).

[verisimi]

I guess all their coal fueled power stations produce lots of cheap electricity.

[2143]

> EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least.

In India there are some relatively cheap EVs on sale, and they're all picking up stream.

By cheap, this is what I mean: the price of Tata Nexon EV is slightly over the price of Hyundai Accent (called "Verna" over here) and maybe equivalent to the price of a Kia Seltos. The Nexon EV is now a fairly common sight in Indian cities.

Then there's the slightly more expensive MG ZS EV, which at this point I'm seeing on the roads fairly frequently.

Haven't seen too many Hyundai Kona on the road. Tesla is unfortunately not in India yet. There are some super-expensive EV models from Mercedes and the likes, but those are very expensive.

(Disclaimer: I'm NOT affiliated in any way with any of the brands I mentioned).

[King-Aaron]

While they are starting to sell more EVs in India, as soon as you travel even half an hour outside of a major city the infrastructure gets... rather average. While people who live in New Delhi will be able to charge their car, that's not the case in the majority of the country.

[spaceman_2020]

You have to keep in mind that India’s best selling cars are usually under the 8 lakh price barrier. EVs are not there yet, but its only a matter of time before they go under that mark.

[kumarvvr]

In cities, Nexon EV has become a common sight. And Tata has made good effort to ensure EV and Non-EV look and feel the same.

[grizzles]

It will be all electric because electric cars will be the most affordable. You can buy decent $3000 electric cars from alibaba.com today. [1] Check out this article about it. [2]

[1] https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Cheapest-Chinese-Elec... [2] https://electrek.co/2022/04/02/awesomely-weird-alibaba-elect...

[vel0city]

They're great assuming you'll never be on the road with any other 1 ton vehicle that might impact you at 30mph+. Then they're fiery death traps that you'd hope to never experience again, if you survive.

EDIT: 100Ah 12V battery? So an electric golf cart, supposedly rated to go up to 50mph, with a "bed" and four seats and a lot of extra weight and drag. You're barely going to go 10 miles at 30mph in this even without four people and cargo in the bed of this "truck".

[srg0]

> EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least

I disagree. iPhone remained a first world item. Smartphones are being adopted even in the poorest countries.

I'd argue that it's in the third world where the advantages of the EV are particularly important. Lower operating costs, simpler maintenance, local power sources.

Most of the developing world is where there is a lot of solar radiation. Solar PV has already the lowest generation costs. It's already the power source that requires the least capital investments, and works the best in the regions with underdeveloped infrastructure (see stories about Afghan farmers).

Yes, 50K vehicles are too expensive for countries with a GDP of < 10K per capita. They are even too expensive for most of the EU. But eventually the cost parity will be reached, and at some point it will be more economical to produce budget and low margin EVs than to support a legacy supply chain of ICE vehicles.

Even the bleakest estimates predict EV cost parity in 10 years. 20 years for nearly complete fleet replacement. So in 30 years or so an ICE vehicle will be like a steam engine. TCO parity will happen sooner, and most vehicles are replaced after 10 years, so the majority of the cars will be EVs in 15 years or so (in high GDP countries). And if the majority of the cars produced are EVs, and they are less expensive, the developing world will switch too.

[everettp]

This is a very narrow view that probably stems from the fact that people in the US tend to think only of Teslas and other luxury cars when they think of EVs. Low end EVs, of kinds that either wouldn't obtain road safety approval in the US or appeal to consumers who are looking for large comfort cars, are rapidly emerging and are poised to dominate China, India and other non-Western countries in coming years

[Waterluvian]

In many ways cars are basically a first world item, even today. Go to various urban centres worldwide and you’ll find a majority of other vehicle types.

[tokipin]

That's roughly my thinking on Toyota's strategy if we give them the benefit of the doubt. They want to own a larger piece of the ICE pie as it shrinks. This is a great strategy. What they might not appreciate is that the oil pie will also shrink and that both of these industries will have increasing costs across their entire supply chains as volumes diminish. Their vehicles will suffer for both ICE tech and gasoline propulsion and be completely outcompeted on cost and convenience. This will happen over a much shorter time frame than they expect.

Green solutions are part of the continuing decentralization through technology and will be just as popular in developing countries as in first world countries. One practical example of this is that green tech can be financed in bite-sized chunks, compared to the large commitments needed for power plants.

[rixrax]

I think you're greatly underestimating momentum for the change. China and India are first hand feeling the effects of climate change, global warming, cyclical warming or what ever we want to call it. They may not be able to switch off of fossil fuels immediately, but their politicians and bureaucrats aren't walking around blindfolded either. Meanwhile russias barbaric war in Ukraine and energy (and food) blackmail has put Europe (and really rest of the world) on notice about relying on fossil fuels. Europe will never go back to fossil fuels at least in pre Feb 20200 capacity, and is on overdrive to move to non-fossil fuels. Fossils are out, electricity is in. And so will be EVs.

[onlyrealcuzzo]

> EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime at least.

How much longer are you planning to live?

EVs WILL be the VAST majority of autos sold globally in 30 years.

Depending on the curve, ICE vehicles could still make up the majority of vehicles on the road - but the writing for them will have been on the wall for a long time - probably within 10 years.

[dmitriid]

> EVs WILL be the VAST majority of autos sold globally in 30 years.

They won't. You underestimate the amount of investment needed to upgrade grids, add capacity to account for EVs, and the cost of upgrade to new cars.

Edit: and the cost of scaling up battery production

[Gigachad]

Without the current economies of scale, petrol production will explode in price and become completely unaffordable.

[gary_0]

That was my first thought. Once the world's richest economies hit the EV tipping point where automotive gasoline becomes a shrinking market, gas costs are going to go crazy, especially since things like refining capacity will go down as costs are cut and new investment goes to zero.

The market for cheap electric cars and scooters/bikes will explode as consumers worldwide see the price of gas get higher and higher. Many of these cheap EVs won't be sold (or even legal to sell) in North America, but someone somewhere will meet that demand.

[theshrike79]

The telling fact is that oil companies refuse to start new oil fields even when they have the permissions.

Opening up a new field costs mucho $$ and it takes a while to pay it back before it'll start making a profit. And it seems that their analysis shows that 25+ years in the future they're not making as much as they are today so there's no point in spending money up front.

It's easier just to sell their existing inventory at insane prices.

[schuke]

I can totally imagine underdeveloped countries where you’ll find a lot of: - Used Chinese EVs which costed around 10-15k USD new. - Used and older upmarket EVs. - Low speed and low range EVs that cost around 1-2k USD new.

[colordrops]

This is ignorant of the facts. China has many very cheap EVs for from scooters to bikes to trikes to small carts to small cars all the way to buses, and they are used across the entire economic spectrum.

[ngcc_hk]

Getting gas is not easy. But have a solar or wind slowly charging an easier to maintain vechicle … why 1st world. In fact due to apartment living some cannot go there.

[theshrike79]

Apartment living + EV is not a technical problem, it's 100% a political/social one.

[WorldMaker]

In truly underdeveloped countries, the gas infrastructure is worse than the electric grid. EVs give the country an excuse to focus on one infrastructure instead of two. Underdeveloped countries are in a decent place to leapfrog the developed world on EV adoption because there's less reliance/inertia in existing gas infrastructure and vehicles.

(Just as some underdeveloped countries have been able to jump over transitionary steps in internet infrastructure and where they are seeing investments in internet infrastructure it is often faster on average than developed world averages because they jump straight to fiber everywhere skipping over many copper wire intermediaries.)

[Dalewyn]

>If you’ve stepped outside a devolved country for even a few days…

I've noticed, especially recently, that a lot of tech people are hilariously out of touch with anything outside of first-world metropolitian environments.

[llampx]

Americans are famous for not realizing that there's an entire world outside their borders. They think everyone needs to go 80 mph on the highway, sorry _freeway_ for 1-2 hours to get to their job.

[petre]

> Toyota is going to be the monopoly automaker in every underdeveloped country and will be laughing all the way to the bank

You are probably aware that ICE vehicles can run on LPG or hydrogen and even diesel cars can run on synthetic dimethyl ether (DME). A PHEV with a 10 kWh battery or an EV with a small backup combustion generator make total sense as one can charge at home with a wall charger. Use the car regularily for urban trips of less than 50 km and run on some sort of fuel when one needs extended range for extraurban trips. Renault did exactly this with the new Captur PHEV. In markets where suffcient H2 infrastructure becomes available, automakers could sell a variant with a H2 tuned engine and fuel tank, in other markets they could continue to sell the gas version or gas/LPG. Of course, if one wants people to use LPG rather then gas, the gas tank can be made smaller as it's only required at power startup. Others automakers targeting first world countries with sufficient H2 infrastructure will use fuel cells combined with a smaller battery to accomplish the same thing and fully ditch the ICE.

I too think Toyoda-san has the right market approach. They also have a headstart in H2 tech.

[llampx]

Hydrogen is a totally different beast than LPG or NG, needing much different fuel lines and engines.

[chaostheory]

There’s a reason why many countries are transitioning to EVs, and it’s not mainly for the environment. With the end of cheap oil and the rise of economical EVs from companies like Tara, I feel that you’re wrong on this one.

Toyota is living in the past, and resting on their laurels just like GM did decades past. I used to be a Toyota loyalist. Not anymore when it’s clear where the future lies

[JumpCrisscross]

> EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item for my lifetime

Lithium-ion cars, sure. The EV category, however, is far larger. Economies of scale go both ways. If "everyone other than Toyota goes completely electrics," maintaining consumer gasoline-distribution infrastructure becomes solely Toyota's problem.

[Renaud]

You need to factor in that China is pushing heavily for EV and Chinese car manufacturers will handle part of the demand for cheaper EV in China and other countries.

Same for India, Tata will probably not stop making combustion engines for a while but they will have to produce cheap EV for their market and abroad.

Toyota may resist for a while but they will lose market share in luxury and middle-range cars as combustion engines get banned or at least restricted in wealthy countries and will remain too expensive for emerging markets.

So Toyota may end up producing the cheaper models of ICE cars only.

[torginus]

I think once they figure out self-driving, car ownership will plummet and most family cars will be replaced with self-driving taxis and shuttles, which will be electric.

Society subsidizes car ownership to an extreme degree, from the environmental impact, parking space to road infrastructure etc.

A lot of people live in cities, and in a lot of cities, there is just not enough space for cars.

[Workaccount2]

There is no way humans give up control over their own vehicle. This isn't a practical issue it's a psychological one.

[hliyan]

I'm from Sri Lanka and Nissan Leafs are everywhere. Even I used to drive one a while back. My brother still drives one.

[greenthrow]

They aren't that now. You can get a used Leaf for $6k.

[neon_electro]

Would love to know where all the $6k Leafs are hiding now. Your statement was true before the pandemic and the used car market becoming wild. Now cars that would sell for that price are being listed for $12-15k…

[velhartice]

Yea and it will have a range of ~50 miles if you’re lucky.

[01100011]

> EVs are definitely going to remain a first-world item

And that's fine. Remember, EV cars don't just compete with ICE vehicles. They compete with walkable cities, bicycles, scooters(ICE or EV), busses and other mass transit. They will face that competition even in the first-world.

[chrischen]

Android is doing well in non-first world countries and Android takes a ridiculously small portion of the global handset profits.

[nonethewiser]

I feel like we are also quietly ignoring their large investment into fully EV vehicles.

[sanderjd]

Why do you think this? It seems unrealistic and unsupported to me.

[seer-zig]

Good points. Plus, there are many countries and districts where it is just not feasible. Wander into the deserts or jungles and tell me how to reliably operate and refuel EVs in those harsh environments. Toyota leads the way with offerings like the Land Cruiser, Prado, Hilux, etc.

[theshrike79]

How do you refuel ICEs in harsh environments? Someone has to drive the huge tanker full of fuel over there a bunch of times a week, right? What if there's a some kind of weather event and the roads are unavailable for two weeks, how does the Land Cruiser get refueled then?

With EVs people in remote locations can have local infrastructure to generate what they need locally.

[hampereddustbin]

People in hot countries still tend not to drive several hundred mile trips trough the desert, they work reasonably close to where they live. For whatever around-the-globe fun trip you can of course rent whatever you want