If almost everyone transitions to EVs, wouldn’t that reduce demand enough for oil to bring it down to < $5? The big problem would then be distribution as gas stations go out of business, but if long distance trucks still use diesel, truck stops could service legacy ICE passenger cars.
My EV battery has a 8 year guarantee. And looking at statistical data from the same make/model it seems I'll lose 10% max during that time.
Going from 300km range to 270 isn't going to change my life, anything over 200km is perfectly fine for my daily use.
Even after the battery is at 50% capacity in 15+ years from now, I'll need to consider if it's worth it to replace the battery or just take it out and plug it into my house and sell the other bits of the car to someone.
The energy density of lithium-ion batteries per dollar has been doubling every four years for the past 20 years and that trend is continuing which means that by the time you have to replace your battery (assuming 10 years), you can do so at one fifth the original cost (or you can get a battery with 5 times the energy).
Battery costs are still falling and the typical cost of a battery in a mid range EV is about 6000 USD. For the battery to lose 30% of capacity, it takes 10 years. So your amortized cost (crude) for 10 years is about 400 USD per year.
I am sure the gas costs will be much more than that, compared to EV running costs.
This model assumes one person owns the vehicle for the entire vehicles life.
In reality, someone buys an EV new, drives until the battery is worn out, and trades it in. Now the price of used cars just went up $6k across the board because you need to put a new battery in any affordable used car out there.
Tesla is getting half million miles out of batteries. If my model 3 gets half that i’d be ecstatic and 1/4th that i would still be happy (and you can get them refurbed for 15k or less..which is cheap if you get another half million miles… )
There’s not enough material right now to make EV batteries for everyone; that price is only going to go up unless a new battery recipe is made commercially viable (including the necessary mass production facilities), or new deposits are made available at similar prices.
15k NOW. The downward cost of batteries means replacements will cost less in the future.
If you have a nickel-cobalt Tesla battery right now, there is going to be at a minimum LFP (no nickel/cobalt) replacements available. Or Li-S, or Solid State, or some sodium ion or maybe sodium sulfur.
If your car lasts ten years, that is going to a completely different ballgame given what is coming down the pipe from technology and scaling.
Even if it drops to 150 mile range, guess what? That is still a car with a ton of use cases: city car, cab, delivery car, etc. Unlike an ICE where the engine or transmission breaks, a battery losing range is still a battery that works.
Cost of an engine is upwards of 10k and all it takes for an engine failure is skipping a few oil change cycles. An EV battery lasts just as long without having to be maintained as much and when it fails it costs around 6k and in 5 years probably half that amount.
> all it takes for an engine failure is skipping a few oil change cycles.
Any economy car you can buy will easily survive for a very long time even if you completely neglect all maintenance. It is nowhere near true that an engine will fail from missing a few oil changes.
Klinky|3 years ago
seanmcdirmid|3 years ago
theshrike79|3 years ago
Going from 300km range to 270 isn't going to change my life, anything over 200km is perfectly fine for my daily use.
Even after the battery is at 50% capacity in 15+ years from now, I'll need to consider if it's worth it to replace the battery or just take it out and plug it into my house and sell the other bits of the car to someone.
jjav|3 years ago
My newest ICE car is 18 years old and my oldest is 34 years old. They work great.
belltaco|3 years ago
https://res.cloudinary.com/nimblefins/image/upload/c_limit,d...
Tesla battery only degraded 20% in 9.5 years.
Kranar|3 years ago
Sounds like a good deal to me.
kumarvvr|3 years ago
Battery costs are still falling and the typical cost of a battery in a mid range EV is about 6000 USD. For the battery to lose 30% of capacity, it takes 10 years. So your amortized cost (crude) for 10 years is about 400 USD per year.
I am sure the gas costs will be much more than that, compared to EV running costs.
Still a great deal.
dahfizz|3 years ago
In reality, someone buys an EV new, drives until the battery is worn out, and trades it in. Now the price of used cars just went up $6k across the board because you need to put a new battery in any affordable used car out there.
supernovae|3 years ago
falcolas|3 years ago
AtlasBarfed|3 years ago
If you have a nickel-cobalt Tesla battery right now, there is going to be at a minimum LFP (no nickel/cobalt) replacements available. Or Li-S, or Solid State, or some sodium ion or maybe sodium sulfur.
If your car lasts ten years, that is going to a completely different ballgame given what is coming down the pipe from technology and scaling.
Even if it drops to 150 mile range, guess what? That is still a car with a ton of use cases: city car, cab, delivery car, etc. Unlike an ICE where the engine or transmission breaks, a battery losing range is still a battery that works.
soheil|3 years ago
jjav|3 years ago
Any economy car you can buy will easily survive for a very long time even if you completely neglect all maintenance. It is nowhere near true that an engine will fail from missing a few oil changes.
8note|3 years ago