[rsuelzer]

The west makes the critical mistake of seeing this conflict as about Ukraine. Putin sees the war as a single front in a much larger pending conflict with the west. He firmly believes this conflict must occur for Russia to have a place in the future geopolitical order 100 years from now. In his mind, there is no distinction, or tactical advantage, between using a nuclear weapon in Poland versus Ukraine. I argue, Putin is far more likely to use a nuclear weapon against a NATO target in a Baltic state than use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. A nuclear attack on a Baltic state would be far more palatable to the Russian people versus using a nuclear weapon against people who are viewed as "Russian". More importantly, he thinks about history in terms of decades and centuries. Using a nuclear weapon within what he considers Russian territory is untenable in the broad historical arc he has created.

[throw_nbvc1234]

Launching a nuke only makes sense if Putin just wants to try and end the world? A tactical nuke isn't likely to change the strategic direction of the war, it's just escalation for the sake of escalation. He's already losing the war. Launching a nuke in Ukraine or NATO does not mean that NATO respond with nukes. They can respond with conventional weapons and end the war within a week.

Plus there's a non-zero chance that the chain of command refuses to carry out the order and undermines all internal authority that Putin has.

[rsuelzer]

I agree, NATO will never respond with nukes, even if a nuke is launched directly into NATO territory. NATO understands this is a 0 sum outcome. And it's not needed.

I think the risk is that those around Putin (regime), and Putin himself to an extent, believe that a world without Russia is not worth having. And to the regime, Putin is Russia and Russia is Putin. The question is, if there is a 100% chance that should he lose this conflict that his regime will collapse and a 99% chance that Russia could survive a nuclear war on equal footing with the west which will he choose?

Even a full scale nuclear war will not end the world, many millions, likely billions will survive. It will just be nothing like the world before.

[elforce002]

Just how Putin is losing the war exactly? I'm curious to know since that's the only thing I hear since may. It seems that rather than making Russia back down, they are doubling down. This move is basically saying that we're entering a new phase: nuclear war.

[hackerlight]

But their propaganda tells them that the Ukrainians who are fighting are neo-Nazis. So a nuke that kills the army isn't going to be seen as bad. There could also be changing sentiment towards Ukraine within Russia, I've heard murmurs about that (but no good polling, yet).