Even with the rest of the comments here, the single market has issues, especially in the energy sector.
I live in slovenia, and with some minor modifications we have enough electricity for our country (two factories shift to half-production, and we're there). We also don't use a lot of russian gas, but mostly rely on hydro, some coal (we even have a coal mine) and nuclear... so, no problem for us, we're safe for the winter.
But, we've joined a single market for electricity, and (to very very simplify it), all the power goes into a single "pool", and countries buy it "at an auction"). ... this means, that we will produce enough power for us, but that power will be on the market for foreign buyers, especially the ones who earn 2-3x as much as we do (monthly wages) and whose governments will add aditional taxpayer money to offset individuals prices... one of those countries is germany.
So the result will be, that instead of keeping our own, and let 'the big ones play politics, they're the ones who started this whole mess', we'll be fucked with reductions in power too.
I guess after the Nord Stream sabotage they need another issue. The whole of Europe took gas from Russia, but Nord Stream was the incarnation of evil. The press was full of Nord Stream articles and never mentioned the other pipelines.
Poland took gas well into May 2022, and only stopped after Russia demanded payment in rubles. The Yamal pipeline is still standing. Europe still gets Russian gas via the Ukraine transit pipelines.
So apparently the issue is that there must not be a direct connection between Germany and Russia, so the transit states have leverage.
What does Poland do itself? It routes the new pipeline from Norway via Denmark and the sea, avoiding transit via Germany.
Perhaps Germany should leave the EU like Britain if it is so horrible.
Germany was a huge winner from introduction of the Euro. Some other countries, especially the Latin bloc, cannot cope with the common currency.
(Ironically, it was the German economists who used to be very skeptical against the common currency and were loud about it.)
At the end of the day, the single market will only be popular if growth and prosperity are shared across the continent. If the economic periphery plagued by anemic growth and high debt burden expands, so will populist sentiments. And the economic periphery of the EU is already rather sizeable - even the former GDR could be counted in it, at least when looking at the structural unemployment and migration patterns of young qualified people.
In the US, Trump won his mandate riding on a wave of such populist sentiments from the Rust Belt. In Europe, ethno-national differences run much deeper than interstate differences in America, so the end result may be a fatal split in the Union.
But also note that the Economist is reliable factually, relatively unbiased, and is in general respected in the UK and further afield for both of those things. Its coverage of Brexit and EU matters more generally is usually balanced, and probably leans towards remain/EU if anything.
If I had one euro for every time The Economist has said that the Euro/EU were wobbly/breaking/etc I could balance Liz Truss'es budget and have money left for some fish'n'chips.
Well the Euro area has been an unmitigated disaster for more than a decade and could have fractured at multiple times during that period. It's prospects are terrible going forwards.
Geopolitics doesn't unfold at the pace of the 24 hour news cycle. Correct theories can play out in days, decades, or centuries. 10 years is a flash for these types of topics. Gloating that someone else was wrong on that time frame for Geopolitical events is not nearly as clever as it seems.
This just helps Germany to avoid the repercussions of their gas supply going away.
After improverishing other European countries by pushing to them the IMF-style neoliberal loans after forcing them to bail out PRIVATE German banks in those countries back in 2008 and then blaming the people of those countres for 'being lazy', they will be scarcely motivated to help Germany that way.
Especially considering how German industry's competitiveness hangs on other countries' industries being weaker, bringing the Euro down to keep German exports competitive.
This is a chance for all the other European countries in recovering their industries back - German industry shutting down means that domestic and foreign markets that those industries were dominating will now be open to other European countries. Couple this with the Euro going down and making European products more competitive, you can understand that why other countries are not so enthusiastic in bailing out Germany.
> Because of healthy state finances, it can afford to borrow up to 5% of GDP to create a “protective shield” that will insulate Germans from the cost of higher energy.
I find this kind of insulting to Germans actually, since the energy prices were already high to begin with in Germany and the personal wealth of the lower 90% is actually so low that it is not hard to imagine how quickly society can collapse after the government has set so much money on fire just because they can.
The problem with this "protective shield" is not that the intent is unjustified, but it comes way too late and I don't think it is going to help for long. I am honestly not sure there is a solution at this point anymore. They print money to dampen the price hikes, therefore increasing prices/devalue currency, therefore they need to print money.
Peter Zeihan also has quite a different perspective.
> those in Europe’s biggest economy will be able to behave as if not much is going on
It seems like the shut down of the Nord Stream will have a big impact on German manufacturing. I'm not sure how they'll be able to "behave as it not much is going on".
The article is really about something called the NGEU:
> ... Thus, as the pandemic raged, a novel form of European solidarity was agreed in the form of a €750bn bail-out fund, Next Generation eu (ngeu). The money is a form of redistribution: it is borrowed by the eu, but will in effect be paid back by its richest members while being doled out to its poorest. This gave fiscal capacity for southern Europeans to stimulate their own economies in the recovery.
I can't imagine something like this is on the table now. Germany's balance of trade, peaking at 2.5 trillion euro in 2015 is now almost zero. That's fine for a country that issues its own currency, but not one like Germany that doesn't. The days of German largesse are in the rear-view-mirror now. Europe will need to find a way to cope without its economic Willy Wonka.
I don't think it's the NGEU, that was for Covid, but recently Germany just said it will borrow 200 billion Euro to be distributed to German businesses as help, and the article is saying that's not very fair.
[+] [-] enlyth|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ajsnigrutin|3 years ago|reply
I live in slovenia, and with some minor modifications we have enough electricity for our country (two factories shift to half-production, and we're there). We also don't use a lot of russian gas, but mostly rely on hydro, some coal (we even have a coal mine) and nuclear... so, no problem for us, we're safe for the winter.
But, we've joined a single market for electricity, and (to very very simplify it), all the power goes into a single "pool", and countries buy it "at an auction"). ... this means, that we will produce enough power for us, but that power will be on the market for foreign buyers, especially the ones who earn 2-3x as much as we do (monthly wages) and whose governments will add aditional taxpayer money to offset individuals prices... one of those countries is germany.
So the result will be, that instead of keeping our own, and let 'the big ones play politics, they're the ones who started this whole mess', we'll be fucked with reductions in power too.
[+] [-] wooque|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zublet|3 years ago|reply
I guess after the Nord Stream sabotage they need another issue. The whole of Europe took gas from Russia, but Nord Stream was the incarnation of evil. The press was full of Nord Stream articles and never mentioned the other pipelines.
Poland took gas well into May 2022, and only stopped after Russia demanded payment in rubles. The Yamal pipeline is still standing. Europe still gets Russian gas via the Ukraine transit pipelines.
So apparently the issue is that there must not be a direct connection between Germany and Russia, so the transit states have leverage.
What does Poland do itself? It routes the new pipeline from Norway via Denmark and the sea, avoiding transit via Germany.
Perhaps Germany should leave the EU like Britain if it is so horrible.
[+] [-] 14u2c|3 years ago|reply
True, but Germany did the opposite and started buying the gas with rubles. It's no surprise that this caused some animosity.
[+] [-] midislack|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] donedealomg|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] yrgulation|3 years ago|reply
All good things come to an end.
Also it feels like if the weather will suck tomorrow it will be blamed on germany. Where are the other countries in all this? Taking a nap?
[+] [-] inglor_cz|3 years ago|reply
(Ironically, it was the German economists who used to be very skeptical against the common currency and were loud about it.)
At the end of the day, the single market will only be popular if growth and prosperity are shared across the continent. If the economic periphery plagued by anemic growth and high debt burden expands, so will populist sentiments. And the economic periphery of the EU is already rather sizeable - even the former GDR could be counted in it, at least when looking at the structural unemployment and migration patterns of young qualified people.
In the US, Trump won his mandate riding on a wave of such populist sentiments from the Rust Belt. In Europe, ethno-national differences run much deeper than interstate differences in America, so the end result may be a fatal split in the Union.
[+] [-] chrisseaton|3 years ago|reply
Note that the Economist is British.
[+] [-] HL33tibCe7|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] secondcoming|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] juusto|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] dkjaudyeqooe|3 years ago|reply
"The European Union, on the verge of breaking up since 1993"
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] systemvoltage|3 years ago|reply
That just means factual things are being reported and people don't want to confront reality.
[+] [-] anm89|3 years ago|reply
Geopolitics doesn't unfold at the pace of the 24 hour news cycle. Correct theories can play out in days, decades, or centuries. 10 years is a flash for these types of topics. Gloating that someone else was wrong on that time frame for Geopolitical events is not nearly as clever as it seems.
[+] [-] unity1001|3 years ago|reply
After improverishing other European countries by pushing to them the IMF-style neoliberal loans after forcing them to bail out PRIVATE German banks in those countries back in 2008 and then blaming the people of those countres for 'being lazy', they will be scarcely motivated to help Germany that way.
Especially considering how German industry's competitiveness hangs on other countries' industries being weaker, bringing the Euro down to keep German exports competitive.
This is a chance for all the other European countries in recovering their industries back - German industry shutting down means that domestic and foreign markets that those industries were dominating will now be open to other European countries. Couple this with the Euro going down and making European products more competitive, you can understand that why other countries are not so enthusiastic in bailing out Germany.
[+] [-] AnonCoward42|3 years ago|reply
I find this kind of insulting to Germans actually, since the energy prices were already high to begin with in Germany and the personal wealth of the lower 90% is actually so low that it is not hard to imagine how quickly society can collapse after the government has set so much money on fire just because they can.
The problem with this "protective shield" is not that the intent is unjustified, but it comes way too late and I don't think it is going to help for long. I am honestly not sure there is a solution at this point anymore. They print money to dampen the price hikes, therefore increasing prices/devalue currency, therefore they need to print money.
[+] [-] MrPowers|3 years ago|reply
Peter Zeihan also has quite a different perspective.
> those in Europe’s biggest economy will be able to behave as if not much is going on
It seems like the shut down of the Nord Stream will have a big impact on German manufacturing. I'm not sure how they'll be able to "behave as it not much is going on".
[+] [-] SevenNation|3 years ago|reply
> ... Thus, as the pandemic raged, a novel form of European solidarity was agreed in the form of a €750bn bail-out fund, Next Generation eu (ngeu). The money is a form of redistribution: it is borrowed by the eu, but will in effect be paid back by its richest members while being doled out to its poorest. This gave fiscal capacity for southern Europeans to stimulate their own economies in the recovery.
I can't imagine something like this is on the table now. Germany's balance of trade, peaking at 2.5 trillion euro in 2015 is now almost zero. That's fine for a country that issues its own currency, but not one like Germany that doesn't. The days of German largesse are in the rear-view-mirror now. Europe will need to find a way to cope without its economic Willy Wonka.
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/balance-of-trade
Also, the title in the article is:
> A German aid package revives calls for solidarity with poorer EU countries
which is not as sensational as the HN title.
[+] [-] netsharc|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gsatic|3 years ago|reply
The imbalances between the rich provinces and poor ones are much more than in the EU.
[+] [-] durnygbur|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] guerrilla|3 years ago|reply
Except it's not a like foodbank; it's literally a market and this is the cost of markets and the reason many socialists oppose them.
[+] [-] systemvoltage|3 years ago|reply
This is anything but a free market, and the consequences thereof. Actually a very good analogy for NGEU program.
[+] [-] Proven|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]