[pweezy]

China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach a GDP per capita of 25% to have a larger economy than the US. This metric has been growing rapidly in the past decade or two and from a rough search, seems to currently stand around 17-18% of the US’s figure.

Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power status, but it sure is a big one.

Compared to the US, China also has a far larger labor force, a greater ability to manufacture things, and greater government control over its population.

Access to natural resources is similar for many things, less for some (like oil and gas) but greater for others (like rare earth minerals).

[londons_explore]

> less for some (like oil and gas)

If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it.

Whereas China has a huge amount of not-good-for-much desert and mountains which could become a solar powerhouse.

[nordsieck]

> If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it.

It may be worth less, but it won't be worthless. I have a hard time seeing another fuel source for long distance aviation (although we may move to synthesized fuel in the future).

Companies will also need feedstock for plastics - that use won't be affected by carbon caps at all.

[itsoktocry]

>If worldwide carbon caps and tariffs become a thing, the oil and gas in the ground suddenly becomes nearly worthless if you can't use it.

2nd and 3rd world countries are going to bathe in cheap oil when/if the 1st world bans it.

How do you plan on enforcing the bans globally?

[sonotathrowaway]

China has the fastest aging population in recorded human history, along with some of the worst demographics.

What exact advantages do you see in that?

[londons_explore]

I think China could easily fix their demographics if they wanted to.

They have sufficient control of their population that if they said "everyone of child bearing age must try for a child this year and next", they'd probably double their population within 2 years.

The 'demographic problem' is only a problem because they don't see it as an issue worth fixing.

[dirtyid]

PRC demographics are extremely advantageous for great power competition / building comprehensive national power going forward. The TLDR is PRC leadership has been too preoccupied with sustaining 1.4B people, huge% of which are old and undereducated (to be blunt: a drain) that drags on her potential. Shedding quantity while improving quality will significantly improve PRC competitiveness.

Family planning / One Child Policy = concentrating resources on only kids = PRC now produces comparable STEM talent as all OECD countries combined. Demographic bomb collapists narrative fixate on absolute population decline without realizing PRC is starting to undergo the largest (by an order of magnitude) high-skill demographic divident in "recorded history" that will last decades. Meanwhile reducing net population = declining import dependency over time = more strategic (military) flexbility. Combine with massive home ownership % and high savings rate, and most of population likely settle around middle / low high income = no expectation for onerous social safety nets.

Over the next 10-30 years, we will see PRC (even with shit tier TFR) close/lead in technology due to having the largest and likely best talent pool (courtesy of PRC scale), that exceeds what US can produce domestically + immigration. Which will also erode western dominance/economy for high value niches it tried to fence off for itself. Also a PRC with increasingly less import vunerability due to lower absolute population, which mitigates much of the geographic shortcomings, i.e. first island chain "containment" nations that will be forever import dependant will lose their geographic leverage. Meanwhile increasingly burdensome social nets will drag down / destablize developed economies vs PRC who can sustain domestic serenity on relatively lean welfare estate.

Yes, generally, PRC nationals (Tier 2/3/4 cities) will (continue) to have worse QOL relative to developed societies. But in terms of overtaking US, and improving existing strategic enviroment, demographic trends are pointing up, up, up.

[amusingimpala75]

Give it a few years. The one child policy, even though it’s gone now, it really going to mess up population growth.

[jacooper]

By how much? At best its going to be 25%, which is still around 1 billion people.

[epicureanideal]

The US could solve the population difference fairly easily by having some family friendly policies, and walking back laws that are destructive to families such as by incentivizing divorce etc.