The problem with von Neumann probes isn't the proverbial 3d printer. It's the filament. You have to build an entire supply chain for every individual component from first principles. That's why I asked how do you even make a single paper clip in Greenland. That's literally just a stainless steel wire. That's trivial compared to making an excavator, let alone an interstellar spacecraft.
Think about it. Mineral deposits aren't uniformly distributed. You're going to need to combine elements from thousands of kilometers away, and that's assuming their reachable from the surface with relative ease.
The only plausible way to build a "replicator" is actually to send entire premade factories, harvesters, and transports to a planet in a giant cooperative swarm, along with literally tons of preprocessed materials for repairs until you get a self sustaining supply chain running. And that implicitly assumes that all the requisite materials are even available. Land on a planet without plate tectonics, and your heavier elements may forever be locked under tens of kilometers of solid rock, or even better 60 kilometers of solid ice, liquid water, and rock. (Good luck with your Europan gold mine!)
Oh yeah, and it all of it has to work after a million years in hibernation.
So there's no benefit to collaborating because of distances and time scales. A system of machines is plausible, so there's a non-zero risk of encountering something like that. Civilizations decide to hide because only bad things could happen if they don't. And now you have a dark forest. The hunter doesn't have to exist. The prey just has to be fearful.
jonathankoren|3 years ago
The problem with von Neumann probes isn't the proverbial 3d printer. It's the filament. You have to build an entire supply chain for every individual component from first principles. That's why I asked how do you even make a single paper clip in Greenland. That's literally just a stainless steel wire. That's trivial compared to making an excavator, let alone an interstellar spacecraft.
Think about it. Mineral deposits aren't uniformly distributed. You're going to need to combine elements from thousands of kilometers away, and that's assuming their reachable from the surface with relative ease.
The only plausible way to build a "replicator" is actually to send entire premade factories, harvesters, and transports to a planet in a giant cooperative swarm, along with literally tons of preprocessed materials for repairs until you get a self sustaining supply chain running. And that implicitly assumes that all the requisite materials are even available. Land on a planet without plate tectonics, and your heavier elements may forever be locked under tens of kilometers of solid rock, or even better 60 kilometers of solid ice, liquid water, and rock. (Good luck with your Europan gold mine!)
Oh yeah, and it all of it has to work after a million years in hibernation.
linkdink|3 years ago