[ebjaas_2022]

> rather than on the finding and promotion of undiscovered geniuses.

There's a catch in it as well, which is that you cannot really identify a genius up-front. A genius is, by definition, someone who thinks differently. A lot of people think differently. But the thing with the genius is that he thinks differently and correctly. The latter part won't be obvious until after the fact.

When Alex Ferguson started out as a Manchester United manager he probably already was a genius, but it wasn't obvious until many years later.

Same with Sergey Brin and Larry Page. They probably had a genius vision for the company right from the start. But it's only in retrospect that we recognize that it was, in fact, a genius vision.

Finding a genius is, I think, almost by definition, impossible.

[toyg]

Alex Ferguson might have been a good football manager, but he wasn't a genius - and I say that as a Man United supporter. He didn't advance football in any significant way, and even towards the end of his career he was somewhat naive from a tactical perspective.

He was just a good man-manager in what is a sea of managerial mediocrity - football management is largely restricted to ex-pro-footballers who can't do anything else. Rinus Michels was a genius, Arrigo Sacchi was a genius - they actually advanced the sport.

[FabHK]

On a similar note, Page and Brin were obviously smart and driven and all, but applying linear algebra to the search problem was arguably one of the things that was "in the air". It is hard to judge, because what seems obvious ex post was (obviously) not obvious ex ante. But, again, eigenvalue decomposition/SVD (and linear algebra more generally) - you throw it at the Netflix problem, you throw it at image compression, you throw it at anything really, something's gonna stick.

It's an interesting counterfactual: without Page, when would Page Rank have come around? The idea that the stationary distribution of a Markov Chain (under certain conditions) is given by the eigenvector to the (largest) eigenvalue 1 is certainly decades old, if not a century.

[jll29]

> Same with Sergey Brin and Larry Page. They probably had a genius vision for the company right from the start.

That seems inconsistent with reports that they tried to sell early to Yahoo! for $2m.