You can really understand here that Zuckerberg really understands his business. He knew in 2015, that if Facebook didn't have a platform it controlled, it would suffer down the line. We are almost a decade out, but what he predicted has come to pass and Apple is now squeezing the juice out of Meta.
I don't think Zuckerberg is wrong about VR at a certain level. I think VR gaming makes regular gaming obsolete in many ways. But instead of making Oculus the "XBox" of the future, Mark decided that it was the "everything" of the future. A sort of wishful thinking that these headsets would replace the cellphone.
The cellphone fits in your pocket, watches fit on your wrist, and earbuds fit in your ears. A VR headset would have to be sunglasses size and even then they'd still be less ubiquitous than the Apple Watch.
The problem is not the vision, but the amount of money being spent. If Oculus had stayed independent, I can guarantee we'd have better (probably more gaming) oriented content.
> If Oculus had stayed independent, I can guarantee we'd have better (probably more gaming) oriented content.
I agree with this. We would also have more competition because other players in the space wouldn't be as intimidated to go up against a business like Meta/Facebook.
I think a crucial miscalculation was trying to EEE the space. Zuck clearly states that he wanted Meta to "own the space" on every platform. Basically, he wanted to carve out a niche like Adobe managed to do with PDF, but on a scale that rivals full blown platforms like the Android ecosystem. Such an ambitious plan sounds great on paper, until you realize that you're trying to EEE the exact people who wrote the textbooks on EEE. When you sound a horn that loud, on a megaphone as big as the one Meta was using, you're only painting a target on your own back.
Another drawback to the path that Meta selected is they basically internalized the entire hardware industry that was just starting up. If Oculus had stayed independent I believe they would have had to partner with other hardware vendors to establish some sort of regulatory body for writing industry standard specifications. With one serious player in the field developing and harboring all the tech for themselves, this space could be barren for a long time if Meta folds. All the work by third parties that went into this proprietary technology and platform will basically be for nothing.
The problem isn't the amount of money either. It's that their product is bad.
I havent tried the recent Quest Pro but based on reviews I assume it's pretty good. Not great, not sexy, but pretty good. Their flagship application however, Horizons, embarrasses meta every time a screenshot gets shared. It is so dorky and uninspired that nobody wants to admit they even tried it.
Who exactly are they targeting with that thing? Adults? Children? Their messaging and pricepoint around the Pro seems to suggest they're expecting office workers to use it for virtual conferencing. Who are they kidding with that?
The cost is part of the forward-looking vision. That part makes sense to me. It's the product that baffles me. It just stinks.
My mother in law probably still thinks people play first person shooters but really the sense of characterization in modern games depends on the third person perspective. Bayonetta has legs and knows how to use them. The whole point of a Mario game is seeing Mario on the screen.
The third person view lets you experience a spectrum of identification with a character (I moe for Tamamo, I like Mario, I control Mario, I travel with Mario on his journey, I am Mario, ...) that you can't really experience from a first person view. Maybe you can put on the appearance of a character for other people's benefit in VR but you're going to have use your imagination (for better and worse) to put yourself into a character.
For now the VR game industry is driven by independents. Big game studios could make an AAA game but they won't because there aren't enough players with headsets to justify the investment.
I am betting on the first AAA VR game coming from a Chinese studio as they are taking big chances on new IP such as Genshin Impact from MiHoYo.
> I think VR gaming makes regular gaming obsolete in many ways.
No, I don't think it does; if you look at history, VR has been around for a long time in different forms, think also Sony and Microsoft's console AR solutions. If you look at today, VR is available everywhere at console prices, but it's only a niche to the gaming market, an extra.
The BIG change in gaming in the past 10, 15 years, which Facebook has been partially responsible for, was actually scaling DOWN - think mobile games, simpler games like farmville on FB, etc. Nowadays, the hierarchy is mobile gaming > cynical live service games (lootboxes) > regular video games & consoles > indie games > VR (my opinion / take, I don't have sources because I'm too lazy to look them up).
But you're right about the other things, he definitely overestimated VR's impact on the world. 2015 was a year or two after Google Glass, which was the first major party to try AR as envisioned by Zucc - and it didn't work out for various reasons. A big one was social, but I can imagine the big tech companies figured that society needs a bit more time, like they did with mobile and later smartphones.
I can't see always-on HUD work just yet, society doesn't want that. Nobody wants to have a conversation with someone only for their eyes to go elsewhere because a notification is coming in. Although on the other hand, people will probably talk to someone and see them looking at their phone / watch while talking to them.
100% agree on Zuckerberg really understanding Facebook and where it needed to go.
The most interesting part of the email to me was seeing his support for aquiring Unity. Not being able to land that acquisition almost feels like the critical reason Meta doesn't have much to show today, after all this effort. And it doesn't look like the aquisition failed due to lack of trying! ironSource ended up doing a merger acqusition that finally closed just a few days ago.
Could replace the laptop. If we can get unlimited virtual screens and accurate enough hand tracking to replace the keyboard, I could see people carrying the headset around instead.
you basically hit the spot. He never realized the phone with it's size and fit factor in everyday life cannot be replaced by a headset that is so intrusive. It's good for games but anything else likely a hassle to the norm.
In Zuckerberg's defence, if they somehow create a wearable headset with the proportions of a pair of glasses, they'll absolutely dominate. A sizeable chunk of their spending spree is R&D. If their work results in VR/AR glasses which are cheap, ubiquitous, stylish, and functional, I will be first in line to say "good job."
The fundamental problem with VR is the "VR illusion" which makes the eyes focus on objects apparently in the distance that are actually on a screen very close to the eyes. This gives users headaches thus making mass appeal impossible. Solving this, if it is solvable at all, is challenge #1.
> He knew in 2015, that if Facebook didn't have a platform it controlled, it would suffer down the line.
People say this but Amazon is doing just fine in the retail
space.
In fact for Facebook and Amazon, their biggest follies are trying to own the platform (Metaverse and Fire Phone).
We have seen that owning a platform doesn’t mean owning everything and yet, perfectly good businesses waste a ton of time and money assuming that is the case.
> "VR gaming makes regular gaming obsolete in many ways."
Far from it. VR is just a new type of game. Regular display technology is too good now. From ultrawide to laser projection, to high density mobile screens, to folding screens... ALL getting better and cheaper. Above all, the friction and ergonomic shift of VR is too great to expect obsolescence to come knocking on regular gaming's door.
His idea for the mobile phone to be replaced with VR/AR is crazy. Phones are little hubs in our hands, with amazing cameras and nice screens for flicking through information with your finger. Agreeable ergonomics for our brains to absorb "chunks" of content or information, about the size of a phone up to tablet/A4 paper size. Something in our brains likes the compartmental properties of a page. Like since humans started reading and writing. The "size" of a virtual bubble or layered world floating in front of our faces, isn't tangible or agreeable enough for daily driving brain activity IMHO. Great for after hours fun though!
I think you are looking around you not in front of you. The path now is to a thinner ski goggles looking form factor that supports AR through a passthrough video of where you are but with the ability to turn anything into an iphone or iwatch or 60" TV screen (try carrying that arround in your pocket). Wearing goggles will not be any more inconvenient or disconnecting than pulling out your phone at the table. One Apple leak hinted at an LED outward facing screen so people around you don't feel as strange including you in the conversation. The form factors will iterate towards human centered simplicity just like the possibility space of spatial computing enabled by these devices will iterate towards a more natural interface where information systems will conform to our world as it is in 3D rather than us being forced to deal with them through keyboards and mice and touch screens in our pocket.
VR is too early to be the meta of the future because of the fact we would need something that is completely standalone , have the performances of the valve index including the computer that goes with it and the price of the Oculus Quest 2. If they instead attempted to only focus on software similar to how Google made Android it could have gone better but his strategy was too early to execute . Also, I think that it’s just that they don’t have a platform it’s also that they have basically everyone that could see an advertisement that has signed up with Facebook / WhatsApp and Instagram so they don’t have the ability to grow their advertisements. This is something he had to do which was to give internet to places that didn’t have it but you would have the ability to access Facebook for tree.
So what did he do in 7 years? Ideas are cheap. Maybe the company didn't execute so well due to the bloat and inertia, or maybe the brand itself had other vulnerabilities which are missing from this vision.
It's pretty obvious to everyone so I wonder what really happened. Once people received this mail did they tell him to his face that he was partly wrong? Or decided to just support his vision? Because among tech people I talk to, there is no single person who believes VR is the future, unless a major breakthrough happens that would eliminate all heavy inconveniences that make it almost unusable for the majority of population for more than half an hour.
AR is a vastly different beast as you need to move in the real world and receive sensory input from your device. People have been using Google Glass for over a decade and already have a feeling of what this entangles if you take just vision into account. To eliminate all awkwardness you'd basically need an advanced implant that wouldn't stand out - but I'm not sure anyone would want such a thing.
> I think VR gaming makes regular gaming obsolete in many ways.
If this was ever going to happen it would have already happened in the last (or is it still 'current'?) VR hype cycle. Maybe in the next cycle 15..20 years down the road or after some massive gaming crash it's worth another shot.
Once smart glasses are the same weight and experience as wearing regular glasses I believe like many they are the next iPhone. The amount of innovation that can happen with smart glasses will be so cool and useful. I was just at a zoo looking for the small animal blending into it's environment in their glass cage ... I wished I had smart glasses that pointed out where in the cage the animal was.
While I was playing ping pong I wished I had smart glasses that kept score of the game.
Tons of ideas that many to millions will find very cool and useful! I can see why Zuckerberg is betting the farm on smart glasses! I don't think Meta will create the next iPhone/smart glasses, but good for him on trying.
Not really the worst strategy. You can totally see where he was coming from. He just vastly overestimated how far VR could go in even 10 years of heavy investment, if ever. No amount of heavy investment, even for 10+ years, is going to make AR or VR as ubiquitous as mobile.
You would need a headset so small and light it's not too far off from a pair of sunglasses. It needs a battery that runs all day. It needs to not get hot and burn someone's face. It needs to be fast and responsive in terms of both local processing and network data transmission. It needs to be inexpensive enough that everyone on Earth who currently has a smartphone can afford one. And, he is correct, it needs to have apps so compelling that people find hard to participate in society without one.
It's not even a guaranteed thing that such a device is even possible. Even if it is, no way would it be ready for 2025, maybe not even 2035.
I read this one of the previous times it was posted. I don't have a strong opinion about the metaverse either way.
However, this email on strategy is an example of something I haven't seen in any startup I have ever worked at. Usually the information is available in pieces in various places, PRD's, value statements, mission statements, whatever.
The pessimist in me also believes that most of the people I have worked with wouldn't even take the time to read such an email.
Anyway, all of this to say, I appreciate that it leaked and learned that there are people communicating in a way I wish companies I had worked for communicated.
Where is the end user? Where’s is the joy? Where is the reason why people are going to love this technology? Where is the practical example?
Instead it’s all business, but that business is worthless if you don’t start with the reason people want to use, embrace and even love your product or service.
I hadn’t seen this emails before. I’m surprised by how outward looking and myopic at the same time Zuck’s emails are, this one particularly so (the one about chat bots also comes to mind).
Ask yourself where you were in 2015 and see if you can get their take on VR or AR. For me it felt like magic. Like using an iPhone for the first time. Yes, VR and AR is absolutely the future. But social communication and media communication is just a myopic view on what the possibilities are! Interactive consumption is / was where it is at. A hybrid of games + educational experience was for me the quintessential experience a la Assassin’s Creed meets walking simulator.
I would love to just learn about places where I go passively with AR. I’d love to meet people and have fun stories shared via AR (as I proof read this, I’m not so sure about this but there’s potential).
Facebook absolutely should have built the platform first and if they did that developers would have come to build the apps. I’m surprised with 40k to 80k on staff they weren’t able make much headway into this until the past year.
Somewhat relatedly, did Zuck really write these emails in 2015? The color of the text for the date is highlighted weird. I’m surprised that the chat bot effort happened after this email. Perhaps, he figured chat bots would be a gateway to AR?
I think Zuck was focused too much on the control Apple and Google have on the average person’s eyeballs / pocket and on Facebook itself. The Facebook phone was an obvious attempt at trying to pry loose but they should have just kept at it. They could have built a Google Daydream like experience around their own Facebook phone.
All for the best I guess. I’m glad Facebook is failing. They have harmed more relationships with their algorithms imo than helped keep them together. The world might have been a better place if Facebook’s feed wasn’t trying to be so “engaging”.
I really like Ben Thompson's position in VR adoption - he compares it to the PC adoption. It was enterprise first, then consumers. Users learned how to use a PC at work, and once the price drops enough, they bring one home.
Thompson was high up on the Microsoft / Meta VR deal.
IMO Zuck has a great grasp of the trajectory of VR/AR in 2015. Meta is singlehandedly trying to will it into a common place. To some extent, they had succeeded way more than a lot of other commenters give them credits for. VR is way far prevalent than it was 2-3 years ago.
Oculus Quest 2 certainly wasn't driving the instant paradigm shift like the introduction of an iPhone in 2007 (15 or so years ago). Though you'd argue that precursors to iPhones were WAP phones, Blackberry's. They laid the ground work (Blackberry was also an enterprise-first adoption). As an interface, handheld devices are much closer to our familiarity with PC so the jump wasn't huge. Plus it has a killer use case -- everyone needs a phone.
I am very impressed by the clear vision in 2015 that we're still seeing it play out in front of our eyes in the VR/AR/Mixed Reality space. What hasn't happened or wasn't mentioned the killer use case -- the utility why people would need to be in VR/AR/XR mode.
The web and smartphone landscape in 50 years might very well look quite similar to what we have today. VR will remain a niche and most people will carry around a smartphone with even more capabilities.
This email makes such a bold assumption - that VR will play out like a repeat of smartphones. Or that some "next big platform" will. Is that guaranteed? Cars, houses, aircraft, boats, bicycles - all have mostly kept their basic form factors for decades, once developed and optimized.
I'm dubious that VR will ever be much more than a game platform. Certainly not a substitute for physical life.
Things you can't do in VR:
- have a normal tactile response to objects
- feel the acceleration of a vehicle
- feel the warmth of a fire
- eat a good meal
- eat a good meal with friends
- buy a coffee and get a buzz
- enjoy the smell of caramelizing onions
- get a lifesaving surgery
- have sex
- feel a comforting arm on your shoulder
- do something intricate with your hands and fingers, like carving something into a piece of wood with a nail; even picking up the nail in VR will be hard, let alone the subtle movements, grips and holds, and tactile feedback we take for granted
- experience nature, animals, ecosystems, and interact with them (as they really are, not cutesy programmed versions)
This is wrong, I know of a project where you sit in the backseat of a car, put a VR headset on that's connected to the car. There is a driver and you are on a special track in real life. Acceleration is real, but on the VR thingy you are elsewhere. Not sure if it was ever released.
I think the fundamental problem they'll face is that VR won't be accepted beyond temporary engagement. You just can't expect people to exist in a virtual environment and ignore their actual physical reality for any length of time.
I would think our brains trying to maintain a virtual and physical reality at once for any length of time must get quite stressful. The virtual environment will be first to go (yes even augmented reality).
People want to still be connected to 'reality' and Mark's virtual goals create too much friction with reality for the sake of his geeky wet dream, at least to meet his scale for success.
I read that as naive, something I would expect from a business school student.
Here is the biggest flaw in my opinion: VR/AR is presented as the future of computing without questions.
This is so obvious that this assumption should be questioned from many angles.
Aside from this, in my opinion, such a large company should NEVER show a product that is not convincing. Keep it in the labs until it's good or at least cool enough for a demo like Boston Dynamics is doing.
Seems like this has been public for several years.
Nonetheless, it's quite eye opening to read the strategy so openly laid out. And in some ways quite a testimony to Zuckerberg that other than obviously failing to acquire Unity (why?) they have essentially executed on all the other elements of that plan consistently now for 7 years straight.
this thinking is colossally misguided. People bought more laptops than desktops because they are less intrusive with real life. They bought even more phones because they are even less intrusive. A VR set is 100% obstructive , so it doesnt fit this category. it is something you use when you can "depart from real life". If something like that is the goal, the nearest thing was something like google glasses. it would have to be very useful for people to tolerate wearing glasses practically all the time (You wouldnt want to be carrying the glasses on hand).
The form factor of a phone is that of a book or notebook, and that has been favored by people for thousands of years because our hands are expressive. glasses are generally a nuissance that is tolerated because of vision issues. If the goal is really immersion with real life, it seems that neural interfaces a more likely candidate and that s the direction they should be going (or at least make something more mobile than mobile)
Zuck’s thesis is going to be vindicated in a few months and he will end up being basically spot on in terms of ubiquity in 10 years. The pivot to catch up conceptually with Apple is going to be tough but doable.
Just to chime in here on a real usecase for VR that I would absolutely 100% pay a load of money for:
I love traveling, and I'm fully WFH, so I can technically travel 365 days of the year, but the lack of a monitor basically makes it impossible to get anything done. My 15" macbook simply isn't enough.
It's kinda gotten to the point where I only do roadtrips around California so I can throw a monitor in the back of my car. If instead of dragging around a monitor with me, I can throw a headset that is as good (resolution, battery life, latency, etc), this would be something I'd be willing to easily pay thousands for.
I have a quest 2, so i know how far we are from this in terms of resolution, latency, comfort, battery life, but, figured I'd throw this comment in.
Y'know, this letter makes a lot of sense to me. It's an awfully large bet to make, though. If the bet fails, they might as well just become a dividend paying company, because they admit that they don't really have many growth opportunities otherwise.
I recently made a relatively large (to me) purchase of meta stock with the crash. I also bought the quest pro. I’ve been using it everyday mostly to play games. Sometimes I go in horizon, but there’s not enough interesting worlds to visit.
For anyone still complaining about this pivot, ad revenue is already drying up due to new privacy laws and initiatives by platform owners like Apple. XR (AR/VR) offers a potential future for meta even though the hurdles are hard
it's interesting in that it reinforces both sides of the argument ....
it supports both that he's a crazy zealot driving Facebook off a cliff, but also that he's a visionary because exactly the things he was worried about and foretold are coming true. Ironically, the worse Facebook does financially the more vindicated he is. Which version you choose to believe is probably highly dependent on your own prior subjective opinions, as both are plausible.
[+] [-] LarsDu88|3 years ago|reply
I don't think Zuckerberg is wrong about VR at a certain level. I think VR gaming makes regular gaming obsolete in many ways. But instead of making Oculus the "XBox" of the future, Mark decided that it was the "everything" of the future. A sort of wishful thinking that these headsets would replace the cellphone.
The cellphone fits in your pocket, watches fit on your wrist, and earbuds fit in your ears. A VR headset would have to be sunglasses size and even then they'd still be less ubiquitous than the Apple Watch.
The problem is not the vision, but the amount of money being spent. If Oculus had stayed independent, I can guarantee we'd have better (probably more gaming) oriented content.
[+] [-] zelon88|3 years ago|reply
I agree with this. We would also have more competition because other players in the space wouldn't be as intimidated to go up against a business like Meta/Facebook.
I think a crucial miscalculation was trying to EEE the space. Zuck clearly states that he wanted Meta to "own the space" on every platform. Basically, he wanted to carve out a niche like Adobe managed to do with PDF, but on a scale that rivals full blown platforms like the Android ecosystem. Such an ambitious plan sounds great on paper, until you realize that you're trying to EEE the exact people who wrote the textbooks on EEE. When you sound a horn that loud, on a megaphone as big as the one Meta was using, you're only painting a target on your own back.
Another drawback to the path that Meta selected is they basically internalized the entire hardware industry that was just starting up. If Oculus had stayed independent I believe they would have had to partner with other hardware vendors to establish some sort of regulatory body for writing industry standard specifications. With one serious player in the field developing and harboring all the tech for themselves, this space could be barren for a long time if Meta folds. All the work by third parties that went into this proprietary technology and platform will basically be for nothing.
[+] [-] pfraze|3 years ago|reply
I havent tried the recent Quest Pro but based on reviews I assume it's pretty good. Not great, not sexy, but pretty good. Their flagship application however, Horizons, embarrasses meta every time a screenshot gets shared. It is so dorky and uninspired that nobody wants to admit they even tried it.
Who exactly are they targeting with that thing? Adults? Children? Their messaging and pricepoint around the Pro seems to suggest they're expecting office workers to use it for virtual conferencing. Who are they kidding with that?
The cost is part of the forward-looking vision. That part makes sense to me. It's the product that baffles me. It just stinks.
[+] [-] PaulHoule|3 years ago|reply
This VR enthusiast made a great video about the problems of VR games:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rZRvw7WTq8
My mother in law probably still thinks people play first person shooters but really the sense of characterization in modern games depends on the third person perspective. Bayonetta has legs and knows how to use them. The whole point of a Mario game is seeing Mario on the screen.
The third person view lets you experience a spectrum of identification with a character (I moe for Tamamo, I like Mario, I control Mario, I travel with Mario on his journey, I am Mario, ...) that you can't really experience from a first person view. Maybe you can put on the appearance of a character for other people's benefit in VR but you're going to have use your imagination (for better and worse) to put yourself into a character.
For now the VR game industry is driven by independents. Big game studios could make an AAA game but they won't because there aren't enough players with headsets to justify the investment.
I am betting on the first AAA VR game coming from a Chinese studio as they are taking big chances on new IP such as Genshin Impact from MiHoYo.
[+] [-] Cthulhu_|3 years ago|reply
No, I don't think it does; if you look at history, VR has been around for a long time in different forms, think also Sony and Microsoft's console AR solutions. If you look at today, VR is available everywhere at console prices, but it's only a niche to the gaming market, an extra.
The BIG change in gaming in the past 10, 15 years, which Facebook has been partially responsible for, was actually scaling DOWN - think mobile games, simpler games like farmville on FB, etc. Nowadays, the hierarchy is mobile gaming > cynical live service games (lootboxes) > regular video games & consoles > indie games > VR (my opinion / take, I don't have sources because I'm too lazy to look them up).
But you're right about the other things, he definitely overestimated VR's impact on the world. 2015 was a year or two after Google Glass, which was the first major party to try AR as envisioned by Zucc - and it didn't work out for various reasons. A big one was social, but I can imagine the big tech companies figured that society needs a bit more time, like they did with mobile and later smartphones.
I can't see always-on HUD work just yet, society doesn't want that. Nobody wants to have a conversation with someone only for their eyes to go elsewhere because a notification is coming in. Although on the other hand, people will probably talk to someone and see them looking at their phone / watch while talking to them.
[+] [-] jimmydorry|3 years ago|reply
The most interesting part of the email to me was seeing his support for aquiring Unity. Not being able to land that acquisition almost feels like the critical reason Meta doesn't have much to show today, after all this effort. And it doesn't look like the aquisition failed due to lack of trying! ironSource ended up doing a merger acqusition that finally closed just a few days ago.
[+] [-] ianbutler|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rish1_2|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Gareth321|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chx|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] RC_ITR|3 years ago|reply
People say this but Amazon is doing just fine in the retail space.
In fact for Facebook and Amazon, their biggest follies are trying to own the platform (Metaverse and Fire Phone).
We have seen that owning a platform doesn’t mean owning everything and yet, perfectly good businesses waste a ton of time and money assuming that is the case.
[+] [-] exodust|3 years ago|reply
Far from it. VR is just a new type of game. Regular display technology is too good now. From ultrawide to laser projection, to high density mobile screens, to folding screens... ALL getting better and cheaper. Above all, the friction and ergonomic shift of VR is too great to expect obsolescence to come knocking on regular gaming's door.
His idea for the mobile phone to be replaced with VR/AR is crazy. Phones are little hubs in our hands, with amazing cameras and nice screens for flicking through information with your finger. Agreeable ergonomics for our brains to absorb "chunks" of content or information, about the size of a phone up to tablet/A4 paper size. Something in our brains likes the compartmental properties of a page. Like since humans started reading and writing. The "size" of a virtual bubble or layered world floating in front of our faces, isn't tangible or agreeable enough for daily driving brain activity IMHO. Great for after hours fun though!
[+] [-] jimmySixDOF|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TigeriusKirk|3 years ago|reply
From what I've gathered, this is the Meta AR target for the early 2030s. What we see now are intended to be the steps along that road.
[+] [-] zitterbewegung|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pishpash|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hdjjhhvvhga|3 years ago|reply
AR is a vastly different beast as you need to move in the real world and receive sensory input from your device. People have been using Google Glass for over a decade and already have a feeling of what this entangles if you take just vision into account. To eliminate all awkwardness you'd basically need an advanced implant that wouldn't stand out - but I'm not sure anyone would want such a thing.
[+] [-] flohofwoe|3 years ago|reply
If this was ever going to happen it would have already happened in the last (or is it still 'current'?) VR hype cycle. Maybe in the next cycle 15..20 years down the road or after some massive gaming crash it's worth another shot.
[+] [-] paul7986|3 years ago|reply
While I was playing ping pong I wished I had smart glasses that kept score of the game.
Tons of ideas that many to millions will find very cool and useful! I can see why Zuckerberg is betting the farm on smart glasses! I don't think Meta will create the next iPhone/smart glasses, but good for him on trying.
[+] [-] Apreche|3 years ago|reply
You would need a headset so small and light it's not too far off from a pair of sunglasses. It needs a battery that runs all day. It needs to not get hot and burn someone's face. It needs to be fast and responsive in terms of both local processing and network data transmission. It needs to be inexpensive enough that everyone on Earth who currently has a smartphone can afford one. And, he is correct, it needs to have apps so compelling that people find hard to participate in society without one.
It's not even a guaranteed thing that such a device is even possible. Even if it is, no way would it be ready for 2025, maybe not even 2035.
[+] [-] nickstinemates|3 years ago|reply
However, this email on strategy is an example of something I haven't seen in any startup I have ever worked at. Usually the information is available in pieces in various places, PRD's, value statements, mission statements, whatever.
The pessimist in me also believes that most of the people I have worked with wouldn't even take the time to read such an email.
Anyway, all of this to say, I appreciate that it leaked and learned that there are people communicating in a way I wish companies I had worked for communicated.
[+] [-] lancewiggs|3 years ago|reply
Where is the end user? Where’s is the joy? Where is the reason why people are going to love this technology? Where is the practical example?
Instead it’s all business, but that business is worthless if you don’t start with the reason people want to use, embrace and even love your product or service.
[+] [-] blindseer|3 years ago|reply
Ask yourself where you were in 2015 and see if you can get their take on VR or AR. For me it felt like magic. Like using an iPhone for the first time. Yes, VR and AR is absolutely the future. But social communication and media communication is just a myopic view on what the possibilities are! Interactive consumption is / was where it is at. A hybrid of games + educational experience was for me the quintessential experience a la Assassin’s Creed meets walking simulator.
I would love to just learn about places where I go passively with AR. I’d love to meet people and have fun stories shared via AR (as I proof read this, I’m not so sure about this but there’s potential).
Facebook absolutely should have built the platform first and if they did that developers would have come to build the apps. I’m surprised with 40k to 80k on staff they weren’t able make much headway into this until the past year.
Somewhat relatedly, did Zuck really write these emails in 2015? The color of the text for the date is highlighted weird. I’m surprised that the chat bot effort happened after this email. Perhaps, he figured chat bots would be a gateway to AR?
I think Zuck was focused too much on the control Apple and Google have on the average person’s eyeballs / pocket and on Facebook itself. The Facebook phone was an obvious attempt at trying to pry loose but they should have just kept at it. They could have built a Google Daydream like experience around their own Facebook phone.
All for the best I guess. I’m glad Facebook is failing. They have harmed more relationships with their algorithms imo than helped keep them together. The world might have been a better place if Facebook’s feed wasn’t trying to be so “engaging”.
[+] [-] raywu|3 years ago|reply
Thompson was high up on the Microsoft / Meta VR deal.
IMO Zuck has a great grasp of the trajectory of VR/AR in 2015. Meta is singlehandedly trying to will it into a common place. To some extent, they had succeeded way more than a lot of other commenters give them credits for. VR is way far prevalent than it was 2-3 years ago.
Oculus Quest 2 certainly wasn't driving the instant paradigm shift like the introduction of an iPhone in 2007 (15 or so years ago). Though you'd argue that precursors to iPhones were WAP phones, Blackberry's. They laid the ground work (Blackberry was also an enterprise-first adoption). As an interface, handheld devices are much closer to our familiarity with PC so the jump wasn't huge. Plus it has a killer use case -- everyone needs a phone.
I am very impressed by the clear vision in 2015 that we're still seeing it play out in front of our eyes in the VR/AR/Mixed Reality space. What hasn't happened or wasn't mentioned the killer use case -- the utility why people would need to be in VR/AR/XR mode.
[+] [-] WA|3 years ago|reply
The web and smartphone landscape in 50 years might very well look quite similar to what we have today. VR will remain a niche and most people will carry around a smartphone with even more capabilities.
[+] [-] QuadrupleA|3 years ago|reply
I'm dubious that VR will ever be much more than a game platform. Certainly not a substitute for physical life.
Things you can't do in VR:
- have a normal tactile response to objects
- feel the acceleration of a vehicle
- feel the warmth of a fire
- eat a good meal
- eat a good meal with friends
- buy a coffee and get a buzz
- enjoy the smell of caramelizing onions
- get a lifesaving surgery
- have sex
- feel a comforting arm on your shoulder
- do something intricate with your hands and fingers, like carving something into a piece of wood with a nail; even picking up the nail in VR will be hard, let alone the subtle movements, grips and holds, and tactile feedback we take for granted
- experience nature, animals, ecosystems, and interact with them (as they really are, not cutesy programmed versions)
[+] [-] maximus-decimus|3 years ago|reply
Let's be honest, they're totally gonna make AR glasses that deep-fakes your wife into your favorite waifu while you have sex.
[+] [-] carstenhag|3 years ago|reply
This is wrong, I know of a project where you sit in the backseat of a car, put a VR headset on that's connected to the car. There is a driver and you are on a special track in real life. Acceleration is real, but on the VR thingy you are elsewhere. Not sure if it was ever released.
[+] [-] nice_byte|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] headsoup|3 years ago|reply
I would think our brains trying to maintain a virtual and physical reality at once for any length of time must get quite stressful. The virtual environment will be first to go (yes even augmented reality).
People want to still be connected to 'reality' and Mark's virtual goals create too much friction with reality for the sake of his geeky wet dream, at least to meet his scale for success.
[+] [-] chaostheory|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] treis|3 years ago|reply
People spend hours and hours playing world of warcraft. A better version of that would be even more popular.
[+] [-] MikusR|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fshbbdssbbgdd|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] stephc_int13|3 years ago|reply
Here is the biggest flaw in my opinion: VR/AR is presented as the future of computing without questions.
This is so obvious that this assumption should be questioned from many angles.
Aside from this, in my opinion, such a large company should NEVER show a product that is not convincing. Keep it in the labs until it's good or at least cool enough for a demo like Boston Dynamics is doing.
[+] [-] zmmmmm|3 years ago|reply
Nonetheless, it's quite eye opening to read the strategy so openly laid out. And in some ways quite a testimony to Zuckerberg that other than obviously failing to acquire Unity (why?) they have essentially executed on all the other elements of that plan consistently now for 7 years straight.
[+] [-] Aperocky|3 years ago|reply
Most people have reached their mental connection quota today, and doesn't want more. It could be fancy, seamless, and at the same time nobody cares.
It's not 20 years ago where I'd read a shampoo bottle out of boredom.
[+] [-] tmsh|3 years ago|reply
I wonder why Unity didn't agree to be acquired. Say what you want about Meta they were pretty good at acquiring companies.
[+] [-] tkk23|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pigiou|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] seydor|3 years ago|reply
this thinking is colossally misguided. People bought more laptops than desktops because they are less intrusive with real life. They bought even more phones because they are even less intrusive. A VR set is 100% obstructive , so it doesnt fit this category. it is something you use when you can "depart from real life". If something like that is the goal, the nearest thing was something like google glasses. it would have to be very useful for people to tolerate wearing glasses practically all the time (You wouldnt want to be carrying the glasses on hand).
The form factor of a phone is that of a book or notebook, and that has been favored by people for thousands of years because our hands are expressive. glasses are generally a nuissance that is tolerated because of vision issues. If the goal is really immersion with real life, it seems that neural interfaces a more likely candidate and that s the direction they should be going (or at least make something more mobile than mobile)
[+] [-] gfodor|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] johnwheeler|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] czhu12|3 years ago|reply
I love traveling, and I'm fully WFH, so I can technically travel 365 days of the year, but the lack of a monitor basically makes it impossible to get anything done. My 15" macbook simply isn't enough.
It's kinda gotten to the point where I only do roadtrips around California so I can throw a monitor in the back of my car. If instead of dragging around a monitor with me, I can throw a headset that is as good (resolution, battery life, latency, etc), this would be something I'd be willing to easily pay thousands for.
I have a quest 2, so i know how far we are from this in terms of resolution, latency, comfort, battery life, but, figured I'd throw this comment in.
[+] [-] throwaway23597|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] johnwheeler|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chaostheory|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zmmmmm|3 years ago|reply
it supports both that he's a crazy zealot driving Facebook off a cliff, but also that he's a visionary because exactly the things he was worried about and foretold are coming true. Ironically, the worse Facebook does financially the more vindicated he is. Which version you choose to believe is probably highly dependent on your own prior subjective opinions, as both are plausible.
[+] [-] peanuty1|3 years ago|reply