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protomyth | 3 years ago

Everyone knew the results of "standard treatment", that's why they were researching the drug. There were years and years of statistics.

We killed 70% of the control group. Doomed by a random number generator.

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funklute|3 years ago

> Everyone knew

If that was truly the case, then - as the parent hinted - it was the trial design that was the problem, and not the practice of having control groups.

It is pretty common to stop trials early when it is obvious that the treatment works. Conversely, it is easy to think that "yea of course the new treatment works" despite the evidence not being there. The need for robust analysis must also be respected.

protomyth|3 years ago

It was my understanding that every study has a control group getting the standard care. I didn't see a study without such a control group.

s1artibartfast|3 years ago

Not trying to invalidate your experience, but I think it is interesting and disagree.

I suspect there are some people with different philosophies that that sit better with this sorta thing.

It seems like you feel guilt not only for the harm you cause, but the harm you fail to prevent. Do you apply this logic to other parts of your life?

How do you feel about the trolley problem, were you have to kill some to save others?

How do you feel about the moral imperative of doctors to do no harm versus a utilitarian approach of maximize lives saved?

protomyth|3 years ago

I don't feel guilt, I still feel rage. I didn't determine any of the parameters or rules of the trial so I have no guilt on me. I just observed that the control group is dead because of some belief that they provided value when we already knew exactly what was going to happen to them.

If you can prevent harm to others, then not doing so is just being an a$$. The trolley problem is just counting souls and really doesn't happen much in real life. The true problem is thinking the only choices are us/them versus everyone. I'm not a doctor so I have no idea how their ethics applies to their professional decisions.

bigfudge|3 years ago

If that was the case, the study actually was unethical.

Some designs do include interim analyses and stopping rules.

However in my view the real scandal is we are still using NHST for clinical trials. We should be continuously updating a sensible prior for the effect size and approving the drug/stopping the trial when we have sufficient evidence one way the other.

As it is, the results of many underpowered trials are essentially thrown away because p > .05, which is stupid. This says nothing about the balance of evidence for the efficacy of an intervention… only the inertia and innumeracy of many clinicians preserves the tradition.