[zx76]

Long comments like this often look like they're going to present a serious diatribe but this is actually a balanced take.

The line "The two mega coal power stations have been beset with issues as well" even radically undersells just how much of a debacle these two power stations have been. They were supposed to be the 8th/9th biggest coal stations in the world & accurately sized to solve the pending shortages in time, the major contracts went to legitimate companies like Alstom, GE & Hitachi. They were supposed to take approx. 5 years from 2007 and cost a reasonable approx. R30 billion each.

What's actually happened is that 15 years later neither is fully operational and the money spent has crossed 10x the original plans. The parts of the stations that currently do work are hamstrung by massive and debilitating design flaws that regularly cause trips or bigger issues (e.g. a smoke stack collapse last month) and there is no clear end for the construction in site even after all this time & money. And these aren't complex nuclear plants - these are just standard coal power stations. How to build them is quite well understood by now!

It's a combination of sustained and massive corruption (every now and then the current administration finds a few extra billion to recoup from a corrupt contractor), poor original designs that have complicated every subsequent step in the waterfall chart and finally unfortunate incompetence (for instance one of the 6 units at Medupi was entirely blown up after hydrogen wasn't vented before maintenance. The entire generator room must now be replaced with new parts from France at the cost of multiple billions of rands and over a year and a half of additional delay).

Finally, w.r.t. the reforms mention in parent comment's final line - I think they have a chance. South Africa has previously had a radically regulated energy sector. Basically you couldn't generate your own power, period. But due to the pressing political weight of the current situation there have been increasing steps away from the ideological commitment to exclusively state run coal powered grid. Large energy users and businesses can now do paperwork for approval to run their own multi-megawatt stations and basically every big factory, mine, mill etc. is now doing this to varying degrees. The big mining houses especially will spend a lot of money building their own infrastructure now. Between allowing the grid to buy private power (a lot of which is affordably priced renewable energy) and a lot of heavy demand starting to make its own power I think there's a fair chance things will stabilize in the next 2 years. The big question is electoral conferences and the next elections. If EFF wins meaningful electoral power there is a strong chance SA will go the route of Venezuela quicker than people think - and I say that as someone who is very committed to staying here and doesn't subscribe to most of the negative takes people can have about SA.