[nelsonenzo]

Your analysis has some merit, but I still wouldn't agree overall.

First, he can't sell any of that 5.7%. Collateral is an all or nothing deal, like any other loan. Technically who ever collects it may not sell it either, they may hold onto it rather than dump it, but it is entirely their decision.

Second, he owns about 21% of TSLA (so the web tells me). And Twitter lost 1.14B in 2020. That is likely to be a steeper loss this year. Selling 1+B / year - with very little end in sight to the pain - will eat into his remaining 15% share. Liquidating 1+ B a year of stock is not a trivial amount and it will not be looked on favorably by investors. It will signal his pet project is more important than his very serious business - a business where investors have been all to happy to short in the past.

IDK, just my opinion. Not financial advice, obviously.

[toss1]

Thank you for the analysis; I was thinking of only the share-flow effects and not at the message the market takes from the situation, which, I think you are right, is likely to be even more important. Why shorting instead long-dated options?