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anon400232 | 3 years ago
Let's make this testable. Bankruptcy by when? Saying, e.g. "at some point" or "eventually" is very problematic to falsify.
I've noticed statements of this kind often have a lot of caveats; e.g. ...
> unless an activist investor pushes them to fire him and change course
... typically there are many other unspoken/unwritten caveats/exceptions as well. When this happens, the statement becomes unfalsifiable. In such cases, I treat the statement more as a normative criticism (here, "Mark's vision of VR and how stubborn he is") rather than a testable prediction.
infinitedata|3 years ago
I don’t have time for all your arguments; will answer one of them:
Regarding timing for bankruptcy - META lost ~65% of its COVID-Driven valuation in one year. Mainly driven by investors not trusting Mark’s vision of the Metaverse.
Excluding COVID-driven boom, META has lost ~33% of its solid valuation based on its core product foundation in the past five years.
If we follow this trend, and nothing external happens as I previously explained on activist investors, or acquisitions, META could be filing for bankruptcy in as soon as 1 year or a as long as 5 years.