[KvanteKat]

Part of the issue is that after a while we tend to forget that the cases that turned out to be true were dismissed as conspiracy theories at the time. In recent memory for example, a lot of claims about the capabilities and application of the US signal intelligence apparatus abroad (especially in allied coununtries) were dismissed as conspiracy theories prior to Snowden. If you talk to a lot of people today, they will tend to remember it more as a "we kinda' always knew, but just didn't have confirmation" situation than a "I'm sure the NSA is doing _something_, but there is no way it would be this extensive" situation.

[snapcaster]

Great example, this was the first time I noticed the phenomena my original comment was referring to. Everyone "normal" described this stuff as tinfoil hat and even the people slightly outside overton window never suspected it was as bad as the reality turned out. But, everyone just instantly switched to "yeah we knew that" and didn't update any beliefs or priors

[happytoexplain]

>everyone just instantly switched to "yeah we knew that"

This is an example of a very common mistake that leads to a lot of animosity, which is that "those people who said X" and "these people saying they never said X" are the same people (this is fueled by the misunderstanding that there are essentially only two groups of people, which is an illusion that most political systems reinforce).