[mdcds]

Just something to think about: Fed Funds rate follows the 2-year treasury with a lag.

What BlackRock calls "deliberately causing recession", I would call "following the signal from the bond market"

Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST2Y&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p4...

[kitrose]

This is all circular because the treasuries are being priced based on the expectation of the rate changes.

[mdcds]

Actually, the relationship with 6-month treasury is even stronger:

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST6M&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p1...