[jerrytsai]

It's unlikely that the rate of improvement, however you estimate it, will continue at the same rate. This is a Pareto effect, with marginal gains ever more difficult to obtain.

And the edge cases FSD can handle will be impaired by the sensors they do (not) install. While they make a good point that sensor fusion can impair comprehension, the removal of radar makes it hard to avoid the edge cases most calamitous.

[redox99]

I actually expect a nice boost of progress as the occupancy network is improved and used more by other parts of the software stack.

And I expect a fairly significant improvement when they release the HW4 hardware upgrade. Better cameras, and more processing are such "free" (as in effort, not money of course lol) improvements to their error rates. I'm surprised they got this far with their current hardware. If you've ever done real time computer vision, you know how hard it is to maintain decent performance (fps and latency) even on fairly beefy GPUs.