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Lionel Messi Is Impossible (2014)

404 points| wallflower | 3 years ago |fivethirtyeight.com | reply

330 comments

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[+] epivosism|3 years ago|reply
He has had an interesting medical journey: https://journeys.dartmouth.edu/marcanovicoff22/messis-medica...
[+] tootie|3 years ago|reply
He's only like 5'7" now so it's not like they made him a giant. Giving growth hormones to kids with deficiency is, I think, standard medical practice now. I know a boy who got HGH and ended up like 5'6". It was done to prevent dwarfism and promote healthy development.
[+] rvba|3 years ago|reply
When I was a kid, I always heard some Uncle claim that "rich people" bribe the doctors to give growth hormone to their children. That's why supposedly all the "rich people" children were tall (being well fed probably helps here)

Is that real that the rich, VC types give growth hormone to their children?

[+] Aromasin|3 years ago|reply
Wow. That's an incredible read.
[+] rurban|3 years ago|reply
The call him "greatest soccer player of all time", but then the talk about Messi, not Maradona. Lol
[+] wslh|3 years ago|reply
Messi just won his first Football World Cup! https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34040277
[+] quirino|3 years ago|reply
There's a subreddit called r/toprightmessi which is a collection of graphs showing how much Messi excels in so many respects. Crazy how in the biggest sport in the world there can be a player so far above and beyond the rest.
[+] ndsipa_pomu|3 years ago|reply
Alternatively, is it due to the ubiquity of soccer that particularly gifted individuals can be developed into their full potential? Someone that has a one-in-a-billion level of skill in something like frisbee-golf is less likely to be spotted and made into a professional player.
[+] OscarCunningham|3 years ago|reply
With fat-tailed distributions, increasing the sample size actually makes it more likely that you'll get one element much greater than the others.
[+] jacquesm|3 years ago|reply
If you were to define some new sport from scratch tomorrow morning by the end of the afternoon the Bell curve would start to assert itself in those that chose to play in it and over time that would become more and more evident. Eventually a 'Messi' would turn up.
[+] emmelaich|3 years ago|reply
And yet Mbappé is better paid - most valuable in the world it is thought.

And his WC Final rival and PSG team mate.

[+] MichaelZuo|3 years ago|reply
Is there anyone else in the sporting world that's such a statistical outlier?
[+] didip|3 years ago|reply
He did it. He won. The ultimate GOAT! He finally got it before retirement!

I will remember this game for a long time. The dramatic twists and turns are so memorable.

[+] smhg|3 years ago|reply
When I navigate back to HN after reading the article, I get a page 'more stories before you go'. At least the first time I opened the link.

How is 538 able to intercept my navigation away from their page?

[+] dclowd9901|3 years ago|reply
Specifically, in Javascript you can superficially push a navigated state into the location stack so that when the user presses the back button, it is now the inserted page instead of the “actual” one. Most FE devs consider this a dark pattern and refuse to implement it.

That said, it’s basically just the front end’s version of a redirect. Unfortunately it’s been used a lot especially by malware sites to basically jail people into their site.

[+] kmonsen|3 years ago|reply
I feel like every site is doing it these days. Wonder if browsers should start blocking it.
[+] fyzix|3 years ago|reply
I think google should factor this in pagerankings. Might be the only thing that can force change
[+] xwdv|3 years ago|reply
JavaScript
[+] bandyaboot|3 years ago|reply
It would be immensely fun as a layperson to go up against Messi just to see how many seconds of trying to separate the ball from his possession I could go before I’ve tripped over my own feet and am laughing hysterically at the sheer magic of what he’s able to do.
[+] elorant|3 years ago|reply
I used to play semi pro volleyball in late puberty. We had a quite nice school team and we were second in regional championship which was taking place in the largest city of the country. One day while we were having a workout a friend of our coach showed up who was playing in the national team so we asked him to participate. Dude was willing to do so and from the way he played it was obvious he wasn’t really trying. So at one point he’s on the offensive and I jump to block him which I did. The one thing I remember even three decades later is just how much my palms hurt. Both my hands had gone numb. There was a lot of cheer and he came alongside to congratulate me, but all I was thinking at the moment was fuck this hurts so much. I can’t even imagine how it would feel had he gone full force while hitting the ball, although I seriously doubt I could have blocked it if he did.

A layman person can’t realize how vast the gap is between him/her and a pro player, let alone elite players. My guess is that you wouldn’t even have the time to react because he’s so agile he can change direction in a fraction of a second. You wouldn’t trip and fall, you’d simply stood still and by the time you’d register what happened he’d be ten feet behind you.

[+] xcambar|3 years ago|reply
Messi or any other pro player doesn't really make a difference if it's against the average person.

Average Joe/Jane just doesn't get to touch the ball. Period.

[+] ZephyrBlu|3 years ago|reply
Shielding the ball is one the first things you learn to do in football. Even an average player should be able to keep a "layperson" away from the ball indefinitely, no magic required.

Magic only matters when you're trying to beat multiple players or someone who is roughly the same skill level as you, otherwise you can literally just run past them or beat them with a simple cut.

[+] alexitosrv|3 years ago|reply
Oh yeah, that is like racing against top drivers! Similar to a sibling comment, I remember a story. It was me taking part in a karts race, just for fun of course, and in the group was this kid who was like 10 or 12?, and in less than 5 laps he built a gap so large, and 10 more laps later I ended up exhausted doing my theoretical best (trying to follow "best" racing lines and all) while he was just doing a warmup. After we finished, I talked to him and he told me that he was going to take part of the world Karting championship in two months later at the time, and I felt so trash compared to him. It was eye opening in a way that makes you wonder if their brain processes the world similarly to you, or if they are built too overpowered for us mere mortals.
[+] faitswulff|3 years ago|reply
I think it would be more fun to match him against an entire team of laypeople. Any single individual wouldn't even be able to see him.
[+] awb|3 years ago|reply
Perhaps in VR/AR this will be possible. Would be fascinating, but also potentially a great training tool.
[+] plandis|3 years ago|reply
> Messi and his compatriots a 16 percent chance of winning the tournament — second only to host nation Brazil.

How it started for Brazil was certainly different from how it ended for Brazil in that World Cup.

[+] eointierney|3 years ago|reply
I love football, sometimes called soccer.

Messi is the greatest and purest player of football.

I study Michaelangelo the same way I study Messi.

Art

[+] balaji1|3 years ago|reply
who else is here at half time?
[+] redditor98654|3 years ago|reply
These athletes are beyond any of my abilities to even comprehend their level of skill by I always wonder if it is just recency bias or are these athletes truly the greatest of all time.

Multiple 100+ year old sports seems to have coincided their arguably greatest of all time players play at roughly the same time. Lionel Messi, Christiano Ronaldo, Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Sachin Tendulkar, Usain Bolt, Lebron James, Michael Phelps, Michael Schumacher, Magnus Carlsen.

No doubt they are just that good but so many of them playing at around the same time is very interesting to me.

[+] headsoup|3 years ago|reply
I think you have to factor in the amount of technology (i.e. video review of technique, mocap, etc), training level, 'performance' programs (diet, additives, etc) and of course pay/background funds these athletes compete through. More time, more training, better stuff that many past athletes could only dream of.

In saying that, Messi is on another planet, with perhaps Pelé , Michael Jordan and Ayrton Senna...

[+] TacticalCoder|3 years ago|reply
> Multiple 100+ year old sports seems to have coincided their arguably greatest of all time players play at roughly the same time.

I agree!

> ... Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal,

And most of all Novak Djokovic. It's totally insane that these three were playing at the same time. Now Djokovic has 373 weeks as world number 1 (Federer 310 weeks, Nadal 209), 21 grand slams (Federer 20, Nadal 22), six ATP World Tour Finals -- arguably the hardest tournament ever-- (Federer six too, Nadal zero) and contrarily to the others (if I'm not mistaken) Djokovic also held the four Grand Slams at once (consecutively but over two years).

Even though Federer was a bit older these three mostly played at the same time and that is completely insane. It makes their achievements even more incredible: the records each of them would have had one of the two others not been there would have been even more unbelievable.

[+] Shorel|3 years ago|reply
The best outcome of all this is that if Argentinians call Messi the GOAT, Maradona is no longer it XD
[+] andrepd|3 years ago|reply
Being the GOAT is subjective, it's not just about dry statistics. I'd argue the cultural impact of Diego Maradona was incredidibly more profound than Messi's, ironically much due to his turbulent life off the pitch. People like an anti-hero :)

The 1986 world cup was incredible, the impact of that WC run on the Argentinian national psyche, including the final but especially the Argentina–England game, just cannot be overstated.

[+] axiom92|3 years ago|reply
Not to be a buzzkill, but being fooled by randomness is a thing that should at least be mentioned here. Of course Taleb has more to say on the matter in [1].

[1] https://www.amazon.in/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Market...

[+] nl|3 years ago|reply
It's not obvious why you think this applies here.

If statistics showing Messi is a great player were just random we'd expect them to regress towards the mean. It's true that as he ages they have a little, but if we compare him to players who are also his age he remains a far outlier.

And even against the world's best, in the a tournament that matters (ie, this world cup) he ended up being the second highest goal scorer, second highest assist giver, highest chance creator and second highest dribble completer[1].

So yes, I'd like to understand how randomness applies here.

[1] https://www.foxsports.com/soccer/2022-fifa-world-cup/stats

[+] andrea76|3 years ago|reply
If Lionel Messi is impossible, Maradona is more than.
[+] chrisweekly|3 years ago|reply
Messi's faced better defensive players as the game's evolved.
[+] shkkmo|3 years ago|reply
He's impossible, but not winning the golden boot anymore...