[bkjelden]

1. The 10-2 and 10-3 yield curves will generate a false signal, and while growth will be slow, there will be no official recession in 2023.

2. Political prediction markets will give Donald Trump a less than 15% chance of being the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.

3. Biden will decide to run for reelection in 2024, and will have no serious primary opposition.

4. Twitter will be sold to another large tech company for less than half of Musk's acquisition price. (2023 feels a little aggressive for this one, I'd feel better about this as a 2024 prediction)