the "eggs in one basket" argument only makes sense if Martian colonization is itself just step 1 on a list of dozens of similarly-difficult leaps to get us to terraforming and interstellar colonization.
It's a very exciting, multi-generational project to think about. Though frankly I think we're going to get AGI + brain/computer interfaces + cloud mind uploads before we get martian terraforming; and dropping the bag-of-meat related requirements would make extraterrestrial colonization much easier.
It's not irrelevant. Virtually the only conceivable thing that could make Earth even temporarily as inhospitable to humans as Mars is today is an impact close to the one that created the Moon. For any other scenario, some places on Earth will continue to be more inhabitable to humans even during the event itself than Mars is today.
So, having humans on Earth + Mars at best only marginally improved the chances of humanity surviving long term than only having humans on Earth, by a tiny amount.
Mars is more habitable than Earth would be during an extinction event. After the event the wiped out Earth would certainly be more habitable, but if there aren't any humans available to repopulate...
There is a broad range of possible human extinction events, e.g. asteroid impact, large-scale volcanism, viral epidemic, nuclear annihilation, biological warfare, ecological collapse, and autonomous robots [1].
Humans actively monitor and defend against each threat. In the U.S., NASA is committed to detecting asteroids, and recently successfully altered the course of one [2].
I believe we are most powerful to overcome extinction events as a united species on the planet we’ve evolved to live on over billions of years.
mlinsey|3 years ago
It's a very exciting, multi-generational project to think about. Though frankly I think we're going to get AGI + brain/computer interfaces + cloud mind uploads before we get martian terraforming; and dropping the bag-of-meat related requirements would make extraterrestrial colonization much easier.
m4rtink|3 years ago
That's also the best option, not betting on a single idea or technology.
toomuchtodo|3 years ago
nonethewiser|3 years ago
tsimionescu|3 years ago
So, having humans on Earth + Mars at best only marginally improved the chances of humanity surviving long term than only having humans on Earth, by a tiny amount.
bryanlarsen|3 years ago
legel|3 years ago
Humans actively monitor and defend against each threat. In the U.S., NASA is committed to detecting asteroids, and recently successfully altered the course of one [2].
I believe we are most powerful to overcome extinction events as a united species on the planet we’ve evolved to live on over billions of years.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_extinction
[2] https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2022/9/22/the-science-behi...
droopyEyelids|3 years ago