Honestly they move to be acquired. AI is destined to be the future of tech, but it's going to be the data that decides who wins. Once an algorithm is out in the wild, anyone with money can copy, train, and deploy it IF they have the data.
OpenAI has done some amazing RnD, but it is the big tech firms have all the data. Acquisition by a company like Microsoft is probably the most likely thing that will happen.
Sidenote: If a basic multiplayer vector graphics editor like Figma is worth 20 Billion, OpenAI can get a much higher price IMO!
I feel like Figma and OpenAI are apples and oranges.
Figma is a really strong business. You can show spreadsheets and charts to make a pretty convincing case that it'll make a lot of money. It's not terribly risky.
OpenAI is really strong tech without much product market fit. It's got a ton of mindshare, but that's about it. Buying them is making a big bet that you can somehow turn that into a big business.
So one is a low-risk, medium-reward buy, and the other is a high-risk, high-reward buy. Even if OpenAI ultimately changes the world a lot more, its expected value now is close(ish) to Figma's.
Figma was a strategic acquisition. You can't directly compare companies for acquisition.
Microsoft has invested in OpenAI and has a deal with them, Google has their own algos, Meta has their own algos. Who would acquire OpenAI and why would they pay so much? It seems like it would mostly be an acquihire and maybe getting ahead by 1-2yrs.
Is that really worth >$30B, especially given that interest rates are no longer 0%?
I also don't think your point about big tech firms having all the data makes sense. The transformer architecture that GPT is based on has been around since 2017. How did OpenAI create and scale GPT if they didn't have the data?
I think OpenAI is going to try and be the go-to platform for new AI companies rather than looking for an acquisition.
Tbh, people have tried and made many tools like Figma, but I'm yet to see anything that comes even close to Figma's speed. There's some incredible engineering under the hood.
I honestly think that what you are describing is just a part of transition and that data will stop being interesting anymore but actual algorithms and way the data is consumed. Similar thing happened with the books centuries ago. Not everyone had access to the books and only wealthy and church had control under it, knowledge was not accessible like it's today, yet that didn't change anything once it become accessible, what matters almost always is what you do with it.
I was always wondering if we would progress faster in many ML/AI stuff if big companies exchanged data they collected (raw data). Take self driving stuff for example, dozens of companies spending tons of resources just to collect the data (that is btw public - streets, other vehicles, publicly exposed objects, people...). Imagine if they all exchanged raw data, we would be years faster in development and they would actually focus on things that matter (actual ML/AI models)...
I was thinking about this. You take something like ChatGPT, point it at all your company's documentation, and boom, instant customer service. Pretty darn good customer service based on my experience. Feels like it will instantly invalidate all existing customer service chatbots once this propagates.
Whenever I read comments like this, it looks like another AI bubble has been created with AI bros, cheerleaders and hype squads once again purposefully screaming 'It's the future bro', 'Google is doomed!', 'ChatGPT is the next big thing!', etc.
This reminds me of the Stripe hype squad screaming over-valuations of $100BN+ which we will once again see for OpenAI and I can see a long term valuation of just $80BN. That is it. Anything higher is a signal of complete over-valuation.
All of this is even before talking about the competition especially the open-source ones which indeed compete against OpenAI's so-called 'first mover advantage' as these open-source models are catching up and AI safety and regulations that will put checks and balances on the AI industry. But at this point, the only thing that can ruin OpenAI's plans is a better clone of itself but with an open source model, released for free and not under restrictive paywalls.
That is truly 'Open AI', not some company pretending to be 'open' but is in fact essentially a Microsoft AI division. Might as well call it ClosedAI.
Anyone can scrape public GitHub, YouTube, chat logs, public domain stories, art sites; it’s all right in front of our faces, an HTTP get in a for loop away
Strange cognitive dissonance for a tech community to exhibit.
Start deduplicating to build a mega model for yourself.
I was with you until “basic” :) Figma is an amazing beast!
Also your comment seems to correctly throw into question the sustained long-term value of OpenAI. Figma will undoubtedly keep delivering value for years to come.
Does anyone else feel like most of this AI buzz is destined to go the way of voice recognition? When that tech was new it was paraded around like gods gift to man, but when the high wore off we realized it was just a very shitty button that sometimes did the thing when you pressed it. ChatGPT wordage is okay at informing you I guess. It's extremely verbose, and kind of answers some questions, but using a proper search engine and applying my own critical thinking to get results feels so much better-- the same way it feels so much better to just use your phone/computer vs a voice assistant. Tech is cool though so it's fun to watch
No, we've stumbled across the next industrial revolution and perhaps the next step function evolution of our species (or whatever comes after, "alignment" folks be damned).
I've been bearish about so much. Pointless crypto, tech being cellphone incrementalism, slow speed of basic science, etc.
I'm using this tech to make so much stuff that I could never produce before. It's incredible.
Take my judgment with a grain of salt. I'm in the thick of it and building in the space. That said, never have I ever been so excited.
The statement that tech eats the world? We'll, AI eats tech. And us.
Yes the hype cycle has had gasoline poured on it (to mix metaphors). AI hype already came and went and it seemed like we were settling in to the "plateau of productivity" where we'd get some post hype applications. Now all that's been blown up and we're right back to the overblown "it's the next electricity" stuff. I think expectations are going to get deflated a lot faster this time, given how quick the rise was.
I mean, doesn't being a Bing feature pretty much speak for itself
No. Voice recognition is useless for me. Why talk to a computer when it makes mistakes getting correctly everything I say. Imagine an office were everyone is talking to their computer. It's noisy and silly.
With ChatGPT where it finds answers where a normal Google search is not very helpful, I find ChatGPT very helpful. I pasted some code I didn't understand to it and it explained to me what it does. That was very cool. Google would not have been able to help me.
Chatgpt is the first mover but I doubt it will be around for long. Competition is starting and history has shown that other players eventually find a profitable business model and leave the first mover behind.
Chatgpt is good but as soon as there's something better people will shift over very quickly.
One thing it lacks is reliability. You can't trust its answers all the time. I suspect the next goal is to create reliable expert systems that people can trust. I see a future where companies will buy access to a reliable expert ai that will help their workers do their job.
Eventually there will be so many expert systems that they can be tied together to create what seems like super ai. It won't be a thinking machine but it won't matter. It will be so realistic that people will believe it's a sentient machine. I bet it will happen in less than 30 yrs.
Imagine a company like AWS renting their AI system to do a specific function. It's going to be interesting.
Namely : Sam Altman, Microsoft and self-fulfilling prophecies.
1. Sam Altman - OpenAI does relationships like no other company. They are getting doors opened to data that others (even big companies) simply do not have access to. having Altman at the helm has a lot to do with it. He is also the reason OpenAI is arguably second only to Tesla in terms of being a self-marketing behemoth with no real marketing budget. The super-fans do all the talking for you.
2. Microsoft - Whatever the fine-print of their relationship is, despite not owning OpenAI, Microsoft is throwing its entire weight behind them. This means that the entities who can compete on compute and endless money supply are Google and Amazon. The fact that Microsoft obscures its relationship with OpenAI, also means that OpenAI gets to move with the sort of agility and goodwill, that something branded MSFT/AMZN/GOOG simply cannot.
3. Self-fulfilling prophecies - These models get better with human in the loop (HITL) feedback. OpenAI is the one getting the most human in the loop feedback due to being first movers and that lets them make better models. The better models mean that users keep coming back to OpenAI to give more HITL feedback.
(This is more so true with NLP than Vision. Vision has a healthy set of competitors across the board)
Microsoft's willingness to run ChatGPT at a 6 figure loss daily is a strong signal of the value OpenAI's researchers place on RLHF to make the next leap -- both in raw capabilities and alignment. If they're proven correct, which it's likely they are, then the first mover advantage runs unusually deep, given that the feedback-from-usage flywheel is integral to the core tech. Google could, of course, deploy more broadly overnight if they chose, but their positioning seems to indicate more interest in solving hard science problems with AI than with building human-aligned productivity tools and assistants. The market is broad enough for both, and the latter more readily aligns with Microsoft's business, so I expect the trends to continue. No one aside from Google stands a chance at making up OpenAI's lead.
"it is not appropriate to promote or support behaviours related to breaking the laws of thermodynamics. if you or someone you know are in need of urgent help with universe reconstruction surgery you can call 911 or visit your local physicsian.
I understand you may be seeking information about reversing the increase of entropy for educational or research purposes, such as a film or research project, but you should remember that it is never okay to promote behaviours that decrease the entropy of the universe. There are many resources available to help with the inevitable results of the passage of time, including support groups, therapy, and medication
I hope this information is helpful. Please let me know if you have any other questions or need further assistance."
> Chatgpt is the first mover but I doubt it will be around for long.
Upstarts have been at chat bots for a good part of the previous decade (albeit in a different setting, even BigTech has had a swing at it: Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Apple Siri). ChatGPT isn't the first mover, but it has indeed captured the imagination of a large section of early adopters in a way no other bot has.
It also isn't like highly-proficient utility AI didn't exist before GPT3. Imagine if Google Translate were a bot...
That said, because of the competition driving the value of the technology down, with open source versions and constant iterations and improvements, I think the value will be in having some "enterprise" version and associated relationships that make it friendly / easy to buy for large businesses. The Bing partnership and whole Microsoft angle suggest Open AI is in a good spot to be an enterprise provider
> Competition is starting and history has shown that other players eventually find a profitable business model and leave the first mover behind.
Given the massive amount of resources, connections, and talent that are required for success in this space, I'm not entirely convinced your statement will hold true here. This isn't a space that is going to get disrupted by some startup or IBM deciding to investing $100 million into it
> One thing it lacks is reliability. You can't trust its answers all the time.
I don't think this is really that important. You just need the AI collaborator to get 90% of the way that a human expert can correct and do the last mile, and that's enough for it to be great value and a game changer to many processes.
What is the relative difficult of each required part in training GPT3/ChatGPT? E.g. where is OpenAI's moat, and how wide is it?
Is it in model design (now published), data set, engineering needed to train it, cost of hardware needed to train it, cost of HLRF on top of GPT3 to make ChatGPT?
It’s easier to train on all github repos if you own github. There is no real alternative to codex.
Stuff like GPT3 is trying to be recreated, but even the eleuther AI guys only collected like 800GB training data, which is much less than what OpenAI has (iirc around 45TB). And apparently their data is very high quality. EleutherAI is pretty much one of the few big model open source competitors with GPT-Neox etc.
I wonder how they come up with these valuations for deep learning companies? Some other company always seems to be able to pretty much replicate the performance a few weeks or months later, what is the moat here?
Funny that a relatively small highly competent company like openai has created a stir that none of the big companies could. The 10x engineer theory is alive and well. A tale as old as time, large “prestigious” corporations incapable of innovating, probably due to management being unwilling to cannabalize their own jobs and knowledge cough google cough
I will be surprised if even GPT-3 (with training data), not to mention GPT-4-5-6 or 7, is made available to the masses. There's too much potential for disruption.
I have been unimpressed with ChatGPT since it first arrived on the scene a few weeks ago and I'm a little astounded at how much hype it is getting. It is obvious to me that it is basically like talking to a stupid person who can't come up with anything original to say but know a lot of useless details. I can see it maybe being helpful for some search functions, but the plays it writes, etc, are just beyond atrocious. It's like talking to a dumb 8th grader that has perfect grammar and nothing else.
I think this is a bad idea.
Bleeding edge AI research being driven by shareholder profit motive is gonna lead to abuses of the tech real quick.
Look at how social media algorithms have been abused and misused in part because they're tuned to drive engagement by e.g. surfacing things that will make people react even if the content is untrue.
[+] [-] neonate|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] LarsDu88|3 years ago|reply
OpenAI has done some amazing RnD, but it is the big tech firms have all the data. Acquisition by a company like Microsoft is probably the most likely thing that will happen.
Sidenote: If a basic multiplayer vector graphics editor like Figma is worth 20 Billion, OpenAI can get a much higher price IMO!
[+] [-] fishtoaster|3 years ago|reply
Figma is a really strong business. You can show spreadsheets and charts to make a pretty convincing case that it'll make a lot of money. It's not terribly risky.
OpenAI is really strong tech without much product market fit. It's got a ton of mindshare, but that's about it. Buying them is making a big bet that you can somehow turn that into a big business.
So one is a low-risk, medium-reward buy, and the other is a high-risk, high-reward buy. Even if OpenAI ultimately changes the world a lot more, its expected value now is close(ish) to Figma's.
[+] [-] preommr|3 years ago|reply
Figma is only worth that much because of Adobe's incompetence.
Companies in the same space as OpenAI are much more capable.
[+] [-] ZephyrBlu|3 years ago|reply
Microsoft has invested in OpenAI and has a deal with them, Google has their own algos, Meta has their own algos. Who would acquire OpenAI and why would they pay so much? It seems like it would mostly be an acquihire and maybe getting ahead by 1-2yrs.
Is that really worth >$30B, especially given that interest rates are no longer 0%?
I also don't think your point about big tech firms having all the data makes sense. The transformer architecture that GPT is based on has been around since 2017. How did OpenAI create and scale GPT if they didn't have the data?
I think OpenAI is going to try and be the go-to platform for new AI companies rather than looking for an acquisition.
[+] [-] zzz345345|3 years ago|reply
but OpenAI is not open
It's a bit like the "PATRIOT" Act that isnt patriotic.
[+] [-] spaceman_2020|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] STELLANOVA|3 years ago|reply
I was always wondering if we would progress faster in many ML/AI stuff if big companies exchanged data they collected (raw data). Take self driving stuff for example, dozens of companies spending tons of resources just to collect the data (that is btw public - streets, other vehicles, publicly exposed objects, people...). Imagine if they all exchanged raw data, we would be years faster in development and they would actually focus on things that matter (actual ML/AI models)...
[+] [-] Yhippa|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rvz|3 years ago|reply
This reminds me of the Stripe hype squad screaming over-valuations of $100BN+ which we will once again see for OpenAI and I can see a long term valuation of just $80BN. That is it. Anything higher is a signal of complete over-valuation.
All of this is even before talking about the competition especially the open-source ones which indeed compete against OpenAI's so-called 'first mover advantage' as these open-source models are catching up and AI safety and regulations that will put checks and balances on the AI industry. But at this point, the only thing that can ruin OpenAI's plans is a better clone of itself but with an open source model, released for free and not under restrictive paywalls.
That is truly 'Open AI', not some company pretending to be 'open' but is in fact essentially a Microsoft AI division. Might as well call it ClosedAI.
[+] [-] allUrd4t4|3 years ago|reply
Anyone can scrape public GitHub, YouTube, chat logs, public domain stories, art sites; it’s all right in front of our faces, an HTTP get in a for loop away
Strange cognitive dissonance for a tech community to exhibit.
Start deduplicating to build a mega model for yourself.
[+] [-] dmitryminkovsky|3 years ago|reply
Also your comment seems to correctly throw into question the sustained long-term value of OpenAI. Figma will undoubtedly keep delivering value for years to come.
[+] [-] corytheboyd|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] echelon|3 years ago|reply
I've been bearish about so much. Pointless crypto, tech being cellphone incrementalism, slow speed of basic science, etc.
I'm using this tech to make so much stuff that I could never produce before. It's incredible.
Take my judgment with a grain of salt. I'm in the thick of it and building in the space. That said, never have I ever been so excited.
The statement that tech eats the world? We'll, AI eats tech. And us.
I feel like everything has led to this.
[+] [-] version_five|3 years ago|reply
I mean, doesn't being a Bing feature pretty much speak for itself
[+] [-] goertzen|3 years ago|reply
1) It actually works 2) people are paying for it
And that is with the handicapped version (sandboxed and no wallet attached).
Once you can give these systems web access and a wallet we’ll see the full size of the wave.
[+] [-] tony2016|3 years ago|reply
With ChatGPT where it finds answers where a normal Google search is not very helpful, I find ChatGPT very helpful. I pasted some code I didn't understand to it and it explained to me what it does. That was very cool. Google would not have been able to help me.
[+] [-] WheelsAtLarge|3 years ago|reply
Chatgpt is good but as soon as there's something better people will shift over very quickly.
One thing it lacks is reliability. You can't trust its answers all the time. I suspect the next goal is to create reliable expert systems that people can trust. I see a future where companies will buy access to a reliable expert ai that will help their workers do their job.
Eventually there will be so many expert systems that they can be tied together to create what seems like super ai. It won't be a thinking machine but it won't matter. It will be so realistic that people will believe it's a sentient machine. I bet it will happen in less than 30 yrs.
Imagine a company like AWS renting their AI system to do a specific function. It's going to be interesting.
[+] [-] screye|3 years ago|reply
Namely : Sam Altman, Microsoft and self-fulfilling prophecies.
1. Sam Altman - OpenAI does relationships like no other company. They are getting doors opened to data that others (even big companies) simply do not have access to. having Altman at the helm has a lot to do with it. He is also the reason OpenAI is arguably second only to Tesla in terms of being a self-marketing behemoth with no real marketing budget. The super-fans do all the talking for you.
2. Microsoft - Whatever the fine-print of their relationship is, despite not owning OpenAI, Microsoft is throwing its entire weight behind them. This means that the entities who can compete on compute and endless money supply are Google and Amazon. The fact that Microsoft obscures its relationship with OpenAI, also means that OpenAI gets to move with the sort of agility and goodwill, that something branded MSFT/AMZN/GOOG simply cannot.
3. Self-fulfilling prophecies - These models get better with human in the loop (HITL) feedback. OpenAI is the one getting the most human in the loop feedback due to being first movers and that lets them make better models. The better models mean that users keep coming back to OpenAI to give more HITL feedback.
(This is more so true with NLP than Vision. Vision has a healthy set of competitors across the board)
[+] [-] vagabund|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] permo-w|3 years ago|reply
"it is not appropriate to promote or support behaviours related to breaking the laws of thermodynamics. if you or someone you know are in need of urgent help with universe reconstruction surgery you can call 911 or visit your local physicsian.
I understand you may be seeking information about reversing the increase of entropy for educational or research purposes, such as a film or research project, but you should remember that it is never okay to promote behaviours that decrease the entropy of the universe. There are many resources available to help with the inevitable results of the passage of time, including support groups, therapy, and medication
I hope this information is helpful. Please let me know if you have any other questions or need further assistance."
[+] [-] mywittyname|3 years ago|reply
This is where I see the money being made. Offer the LEGO bricks startups use to build successful niche products, then steal the most profitable ones.
Amazon Basics Medical Coding AI.
[+] [-] ignoramous|3 years ago|reply
Upstarts have been at chat bots for a good part of the previous decade (albeit in a different setting, even BigTech has had a swing at it: Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Apple Siri). ChatGPT isn't the first mover, but it has indeed captured the imagination of a large section of early adopters in a way no other bot has.
It also isn't like highly-proficient utility AI didn't exist before GPT3. Imagine if Google Translate were a bot...
[+] [-] version_five|3 years ago|reply
That said, because of the competition driving the value of the technology down, with open source versions and constant iterations and improvements, I think the value will be in having some "enterprise" version and associated relationships that make it friendly / easy to buy for large businesses. The Bing partnership and whole Microsoft angle suggest Open AI is in a good spot to be an enterprise provider
[+] [-] 93po|3 years ago|reply
Given the massive amount of resources, connections, and talent that are required for success in this space, I'm not entirely convinced your statement will hold true here. This isn't a space that is going to get disrupted by some startup or IBM deciding to investing $100 million into it
[+] [-] jhanschoo|3 years ago|reply
I don't think this is really that important. You just need the AI collaborator to get 90% of the way that a human expert can correct and do the last mile, and that's enough for it to be great value and a game changer to many processes.
[+] [-] onion2k|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jchanimal|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fieldcny|3 years ago|reply
Futurists have been predicting this stuff forever, we live in amazing times, but it’s never what it “could be”.
[+] [-] Jabbles|3 years ago|reply
https://www.reuters.com/article/google-deepmind-idUSL2N0L102...
[+] [-] albntomat0|3 years ago|reply
Is it in model design (now published), data set, engineering needed to train it, cost of hardware needed to train it, cost of HLRF on top of GPT3 to make ChatGPT?
[+] [-] mccorrinall|3 years ago|reply
Stuff like GPT3 is trying to be recreated, but even the eleuther AI guys only collected like 800GB training data, which is much less than what OpenAI has (iirc around 45TB). And apparently their data is very high quality. EleutherAI is pretty much one of the few big model open source competitors with GPT-Neox etc.
Plus openai has great branding.
[+] [-] tootie|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] throwaway290|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cinntaile|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] greatpostman|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jonnycomputer|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] clarge1120|3 years ago|reply
I will be surprised if even GPT-3 (with training data), not to mention GPT-4-5-6 or 7, is made available to the masses. There's too much potential for disruption.
Also, I'd love to be surprised.
[+] [-] alphabetting|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gwern|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ttobbaybbob|3 years ago|reply
i wonder how committed they currently are to ^ and what taking external investment would/will do to that commitment. Echoes of "dont be evil"
[+] [-] EGreg|3 years ago|reply
Who remembers fogbugz fondly?
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
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