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nimz | 3 years ago

Your point is valid - we shouldn't take single-country risk in investing. Assuming you believe the world as a whole will get more productive and value creating, globally diversifying your stocks is the answer.

As an example that supports your point, the Japan stock market (Nikkei) peaked in 1989 and STILL has not returned to that high.

However, even if you were incredible unlucky and had bought in at the 1989 peak in Japan, if you had an internationally diversified portfolio, you would be OK. E.g. a 30/30/20/20 Jp Stocks/Intl Stocks/Jp Bonds/Intl Bonds portfolio purchased in 1989 at the Nikkei peak would have more than doubled by 2014 (see here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=265807 and also https://www.afrugaldoctor.com/home/japans-lost-decades-30-ye...).

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paganel|3 years ago

> Nikkei) peaked in 1989 and STILL has not returned to that high.

Also, the FTSE 100 has been almost flat since the financial crisis, so basically just a little over 10 years. It was at about 6300 in the first half of 2013, it's at ~7700 now, a ~22% return over 10 years is nothing to write home about. For comparison the SP500 was at ~2300 in the first half of 2013 vs ~3800 now, a 66% return. And that's after last year's 23% decline.

ar_lan|3 years ago

If you continued to invest in Japan throughout that period after, you'd be up today. The only case you were forever screwed is if you really aren't pouring more money into that (e.g. retirement).