top | item 34304831

(no title)

leoplct | 3 years ago

Don’t buy stocks before 2H 2023, or until the 1Y US bond yield is greater than inflation. In other terms until the real interest rate is positive.

discuss

order

voisin|3 years ago

What’s your logic here? Negative real interest rates are artificially inflating the market?

raincom|3 years ago

Interesting take, as interest rate = inflation + cost of money

leoplct|3 years ago

Because central banks will increase interest rates until real interest rate will turn positive. Every rally in the meanwhile is just a bear market rally.