[nostrapollo]

Hard to tell from my phone but are there any sources for the ‘exodus’ numbers? I don’t get the same impression that this post is laying out.

[pmontra]

Anecdotally I know exactly one person using Twitter to tweet and that's only because he shares some of those tweets to a Telegram channel. When he does I might check those messages on Twitter but I often don't.

All the messages I exchange with friends in WhatsApp groups are not happening inside Facebook groups and are diverting traffic from there. In the last many years FB has been a site I use to announce work events and to say thank you to happy birthday messages once per year. That's too be polite because my direct contacts say happy birthday to me on WhatsApp or in person.

[TheHappyOddish]

I also know very few people who use Facebook, however a couple of degrees seperated from me, most people do. They all use Facebook Messenger (but just call it messenger). Other people a couple of degrees a different way use Twitter extensively.

On HN, we're in a bubble as we're people who give a shit about privacy and the companies running our social media. I'm fairly sure we're a tiny minority.

[phnofive]

That's what I was looking for; starts with a popular conception, provides no evidence, then moves on to wish fulfillment.

[Swizec]

It’s a vibe shift. The hard numbers may not be there (yet?), but the early signs are.

Facebook has been dead for years, unless you count instagram. Twitter never actually caught on with the normies. Gen Z is on TikTok.

In my friend groups everything that used to happen on Facebook now happens on private WhatsApp, iMessage, and Slack groups.

[throwaway82388]

Vibe shift is just another term for a change in elite aspirant opinion. The vibe is localized to highly trend conscious social and professional milieus. These scenes are often regarded as a cultural vanguard, but are in fact often detached from the majority of the population, and are less harbingers of broad shifts in public opinion, and more simple reporters on their own microclimates. That is all to say, the hard numbers might not materialize for some time, if at all, and not for the reasons presently stated.

[ekianjo]

> Twitter never actually caught on with the normies.

Does not need to. That's where all journalists look for news. Normies then get their news from journalists. The circle is complete.

[subpixel]

Facebook is still a thriving host of non-technical communities and classifieds. The features and experience across both of those use cases are constantly being degraded and are user-hostile, but FB is still winning.

Something in the vein of Discord will eventually replace FB groups, I think.

Classified is probably the service best protected by the most of FB’s network effect.

[petre]

When your president has a social media profile and regularily uses it, then that particular platform is dead.

[PixyMisa]

Doctorow is engaging in an awful lot of wishcasting here.

[ekianjo]

Isn't he always?