[melolife]

So there are two problems as I see it:

Firstly you see analyses like these where the author goes "see, heat pumps work fine in cold climates, look at these success stories!", and then proceeds to list a bunch of places that aren't particularly cold. People think Norway is cold, but if you look at Wikipedia then the average daily low for Tromso (a random northerly Norgewian municipality) in January is -5.6C, with a record low of -18C. Compare this with Calgary, a relatively southerly prairie city with an average low of -13.2C and a record low of -44C.

The second problem is that they say "don't worry, if it actually gets cold it switches to resistive heat!" The problem here is that the extremes absolutely matter, because this is when demand is highest. If a prairie province/state switches everyone to heat pumps, then your grid had better actually be designed for everyone to be using resistive heat for weeks at a time, because that's exactly what's going to happen when you need it most.

[kevstev]

Yeah but there are other solutions as well. When these articles come up people seem so obsessed about finding some gotcha! and why it won't work for them in certain situations, its strange to me. Heat pumps are absolutely a better technology that will recoup their higher costs within 10 years for just about everyone (yes, not everyone... just about everyone). Find me a guaranteed 10% return in the market these days please, I will thank you enormously.

I am looking into this right now in the NYC area. My ~13 year old HVAC system has a refrigerant leak in the AC component. Heat pumps that work in the very cold are considerably more expensive. Except... I have a perfectly fine gas powered furnace that will likely last another 20 years, if not more. So we are going to leave the furnace in, only have it kick on if the temps get too cold and... done. This may not be true in all environments, but in the Northeast, electrical demand is far far higher in the summer than the winter.

Yeah, in the super cold north, maybe they aren't a home run- yet- but they get better every year, but this whole ludditeism and resistance to change is very strange for a place like HN.