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FTX pre-mortem overview

96 points| koolba | 3 years ago |sambf.substack.com

99 comments

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[+] SilverBirch|3 years ago|reply
It's fucking wild that this guy keeps talking, because either we're watching this guy continue to incriminate himself in ways that are going to really hurt him a court of law, or he's actually going to get off lightly in which case his confidence is just disgusting. He genuinely thinks he can just continually say in front of everyone "These assets I just totally invented are worth billions" and no amount of argument affects him. And that he hasn't done anything wrong when we literally have testimony from his employees about exactly how stole the money. "If I just say illiquid enough, it'll all be ok". No. At some point this guy is going to be in a court and have to come up with a coherent answer why he's describing stuff he made up as illiquid billions, and it better be good.

He simply doesn't have even a passing relationship with the truth. It just seems that at some point in the years of idiot VCs handing him money and servicing him orally, he started to actually believe he can just make up reality.

[+] jrochkind1|3 years ago|reply
> he started to actually believe he can just make up reality.

Yep, I believe he truly believes his own BS. Like probably the rest of the crypto scene.

And, like, well, increasingly huge portions of the whole damn country and world these days? It's a make-your-own-self-serving-facts world.

But yeah, I think he truly thinks he's some kind of a victim here, of some kind of a takedown of a solvent FTX that wasnt' doing anything different from most everyone else in the space (that might very well be true?!? it's a space built on BS and playing fast and loose). And probably truly feels bad for those who got screwed by it. He just doesn't see how it's anything he's responsible for. Isn't this the way all those people getting rich got rich, isn't this just how it's done? Isn't that "disruption"? He may not be wrong.

[+] ulrashida|3 years ago|reply
Did you not see his two spreadsheets labelled "JUST AN ESTIMATE" that clearly show he is right? I would love to know the thought process behind his decision to make this post.
[+] 1vuio0pswjnm7|3 years ago|reply
If SBF actually tries to go to trial and gets deposed in the lead up, then every one of these interviews, blog posts and tweets are just more documents his attorneys will give him to study in preparation. He will have to ensure every answer he gives is consistent with these prior statements. Does anyone think SBF can do this. If he plans to testify at trial, then he will have to go through this drill again. First SBF says "I fucked up." Now he is saying the implosion was due to factors outside his control.

What is with his parents. Is he locked in his room playing video games. Do they have any idea what he is doing. I think he has a brother close to his age. How can these people stand by and let a family member make such idiotic choices.

This is why the Silicon Valley people advising Zuckerberg have opted to keep him from having to testify in a federal trial on multiple occasions. Being truthful is not something these kids can do well and anyway the truth is far too dangerous for "tech" companies.

[+] 1vuio0pswjnm7|3 years ago|reply
IMHO, SBF is a shining symbol of a much larger problem that has been borne out of if not at least faciltated by the now crashing "tech" industry. What percentage of the top FTX creditors who curiously want to remain anonymous in the FTX bankruptcy are connected to this so-called "tech" industry. The media is suggesting there are some major "tech" industry proponents on the list. Internet-based surveillance and advertsing services disguised as "innovation", a "business model" and even as a utopia-like economic future for once healthier societies is a like a virus every bit as harmful as COVID. IMO.
[+] breck|3 years ago|reply

[deleted]

[+] jrochkind1|3 years ago|reply
Honestly, I believe he really believes he did nothing wrong, and really feels bad about anyone getting financially ruined.

I think he was kind of an idiot, in an environment where lots of people were getting rich behaving in unethical and illegal ways, and getting away with it, while convincing themselves they weren't doing anything wrong. That whole "scene" created it's own version of reality in which they could do whatever they want and make up their own facts and deserved only victory... which sounds kind of familiar for the USA and much of the world in general these days.

[+] jesuscript|3 years ago|reply
Lack of reality based thinking coupled with adhd stimulants that on initial intake create a euphoria and makes you feel even more grandiose. That's when reality based thinking goes completely out the window.

He has no objective capability anymore to be self aware, and it's made worse with prescription drugs.

When the feds come knocking on your door asking about several billion dollars going missing, and you let yourself do the talking via blogs and interviews versus your team of lawyers, you have absolutely lost your mind. Certainly don't add adderral or alcohol, or anything to the mix. Go into a small dark room and smoke some weed you junkie crook. Keep quiet, your inner circle already ratted on you. Have some respect for the $250 million your parents scourged up to bail your stupid ass out, reprehensible fuck.

[+] kuhewa|3 years ago|reply
When you see how people behave in fields like this where the common social contract ethical standards and law hasn't quite caught up to whatever the new constructs are, it doesn't inspire confidence in an innate morality capacity
[+] notch656c|3 years ago|reply
Pretty clear evidence of a lack of remorse (well he has remorse he lost the bet but not for being a fraud) and acceptance of his crimes even during the judicial process. He's gonna go away for a long time.
[+] Bilal_io|3 years ago|reply
But it would be stupid to admit guilt while his case is still ongoing, regardless of whether he feels remorse or not.
[+] thesausageking|3 years ago|reply
This is really misleading as it ignores the main fraud FTX committed: commingling user funds. Exchanges should never put their users' assets at risk and FTX's T&C said they didn't. If you deposited 1 BTC on their exchange, they were supposed to store that 1 BTC for you.

If they had done that, there would be no issues. If users leave, you just give them back what they owned and no one loses money.

[+] SilverBirch|3 years ago|reply
Yes, the core criminal claims (commingling funds, funnelling money to Alameda through unaccounted margin, using software to hide things from the balance sheet) are just totally unaddressed.
[+] apozem|3 years ago|reply
For fun, I recommend opening the SEC's case against SBF [1] and searching "tweet" and "television." They are building their case every time he opens his mouth.

This is why if you ever find yourself in any kind of serious legal matter, take your lawyer's advice and stop talking. It doesn't matter how smart you think you are. Prosecutors will use your words against you.

[1]: https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2022/comp-pr2022-2...

[+] britneybitch|3 years ago|reply
If I knew I only had a few weeks/months of freedom left, I'd spend my time doing something other than writing blog posts.
[+] cmrdporcupine|3 years ago|reply
Looks like he still has his Adderall prescription, despite all of this.
[+] dabeeeenster|3 years ago|reply
"FTX US remains fully solvent and should be able to return all customers’ funds. FTX International has many billions of dollars of assets, and I am dedicating nearly all of my personal assets to customers."

'Nearly all'.

Amazing.

[+] peteradio|3 years ago|reply
Well geez wise guy, if he gave up the shirt on his back they wouldn't let him in the bank to give up all his savings.
[+] h2odragon|3 years ago|reply
I can almost hear the lawyers: "sir, we're trying to help get you out of this hole. Could you please stop digging"
[+] ephextom|3 years ago|reply
A theory going around a few weeks ago about his apparent inability to STFU is that his defence will be that he was affected by ADHD meds that impaired his judgement and made him impulsive, and have continued to do so even post collapse. I doubt lawyers could come up with anything better than this, really.
[+] dragonwriter|3 years ago|reply
His first set of lawyers apparently told him that, and they were fired (with a public “F-ck you” tweet) an d he kept Tweeting through it.
[+] gadders|3 years ago|reply
Someone archive it, quick.
[+] rubyfan|3 years ago|reply
> Three things combined together to cause the implosion: …

Shockingly this list doesn’t include misappropriating customer funds

[+] once_inc|3 years ago|reply
Is he still not explaining why alameda's poor hedging would impact client funds on FTX? Because that is where the criminal act happened...
[+] benjaminwootton|3 years ago|reply
Yes. He can write a million words, but the issue is misusing ringfenced customer funds. I didn’t see that mentioned in the post at all.
[+] dgreensp|3 years ago|reply
So am I reading this right: If I have $1m of Tesla stock, and I borrow $1m to buy crypto, that’s zero “net borrowing,” because the stock is “liquid” so I can just repay the loan at any time. Then they both go down by 50%. Now I need more “liquidity,” i.e. to borrow more money, which apparently grows on trees.
[+] sja|3 years ago|reply
Right- looking at this point at the end of the post:

> If FTX had been given a few weeks to raise the necessary liquidity, I believe it would have been able to make customers substantially whole

It sounds like he's saying "if we just had time to find new bag holders, our customers wouldn't be screwed!"

[+] brakmic|3 years ago|reply
Why is this guy still talking in public?
[+] tallanvor|3 years ago|reply
Narcissism/delusions of grandeur. I suspect he honestly believes he's the smartest person out there and that he can talk his way out of this.
[+] unicornmama|3 years ago|reply
Because he will get a fat book and movie deal.
[+] addcn|3 years ago|reply
This actually looks like a lawyer wrote it. It’s very calibrated.
[+] seedless-sensat|3 years ago|reply
I don't know how this is a "pre"-mortem
[+] jrochkind1|3 years ago|reply
I mean, he is insisting that FTX and Alameda aren't really dead, and are still solvent...

> FTX US remains fully solvent and should be able to return all customers’ funds. FTX International has many billions of dollars of assets, and I am dedicating nearly all of my personal assets to customers.

[+] dragonwriter|3 years ago|reply
He claims that FTX US is still viable, in part because his “personal” Robinhood shares (that have been seized by DoJ, and are part of a multiparty ownership battle, as a result of the skethcy loans funding the purchase) are available to backstop FTX US customer losses.
[+] londons_explore|3 years ago|reply
It really does read like a "anyone but me is at fault"...
[+] smcl|3 years ago|reply
Yep something I keep seeing in his interviews and posts is that he will talk enthusiastically and at length about how some external events caused FTX difficulties, but will ignore or hand-wave some actions that he actually did.

The impression I get from them isn't "oh this is a really unlucky guy" though, it is "oh this guy is quite a skilled manipulator".

I also liked when he did a Good Morning America interview and looked like a schoolkid who was caught cheating and tried really hard to look like they're sorry: https://twitter.com/sracka_omacka/status/1602469299113066496

[+] KVFinn|3 years ago|reply
Friends don't let friends blog post on stimulants. Especially while under house arrest.
[+] jesuscript|3 years ago|reply
Sure seems like a Adderral high right? Like bro, the feds are building a case against you. Shut the fuck up, and only talk to your lawyers.

He’s high as fuck on Adderral right now. The Adderral high can make you feel like the dumbest shit you are doing is the most brilliant thing in the world.

[+] cmrdporcupine|3 years ago|reply
I mean I made the same joke as others about stimulant high, but, also..

It feels like he's trying to salvage his reputation with people like us, or at least some of the web3-adjacent people who hang out on forums like this; this stuff won't convince lawyers or a jury or people who analyze for fraud. But it might convince people who were/are crypto enthusiasts and looking to see legitimacy restored and reputations untarnished.

It's a bit sad.

[+] bradhe|3 years ago|reply
But don't you know that it’s likely that FTX could have made all customers whole if a concerted effort had been made to raise liquidity?!
[+] kuhewa|3 years ago|reply
The sheer schadenfreude generated from the wunderkind that still appears to be under the impression he'll be able to talk his away into a better position.
[+] 1vuio0pswjnm7|3 years ago|reply
SBF is making no apologies.

Last week right after he pleaded not guilty, he filed an objection in the FTX bankruptcy case arguing that the Robinhood shares he purchased with money borrowed from Alameda are his personal assets. Of course as we know Alameda was "borrowing" from FTX (without FTX telling customers).

If one accepts that Alameda's cash was comprised in part of FTX's cash then it appears SBF wants to pay for his legal defense with shares he and Zixiao Wang bought using money from FTX customer deposits.

https://ia601406.us.archive.org/2/items/gov.uscourts.deb.188...

What are the chances he changes his plea between now and October. Eventually he will have to apologise. Maybe he'll do so from prison when he is finally denied 24/7 internet access.

[+] SilasX|3 years ago|reply
>Last week right after he pleaded not guilty, he filed an objection in the FTX bankruptcy case arguing that the Robinhood shares he purchased with money borrowed from Alameda are his personal assets.

I don't know if you were referring to the following part of the article, but, in case others are missing the context:

>>Nearly all of my assets were and still are utilizable to backstop FTX customers. I have, for instance, offered to contribute nearly all of my personal shares in Robinhood to customers–or 100%, if the Chapter 11 team would honor my D&O legal expense indemnification.

So here he's claiming that he wanted the Robinhood shares to be available to FTX creditors, even as he's previously made a motion to claim them as his own.

[+] breck|3 years ago|reply
I think I had as much as $30,000 in my new FTX.us account (I was loyal to Coinbase, but inept officials in Hawai'i banned crypto and I was kicked off Coinbase and needed another exchange). So I should be angry.

But I'm not. At least not yet.

Something seems phishy to me. I think SBF might be telling the truth. Or he could be lying. I don't know.

I'm 50/50 on this one though.

FTX.us was a good product. It was snappy and it worked. Until the lawyers took over. SBF says it was fully solvent and I have not seen any proof that it wasn't.

The sheer quantity of "he's guilty" comments on all of social media reads like a well organized PR hit job (similar to this: https://twitter.com/breckyunits/status/1613178467818024962/p...).

The one lesson I think everyone can take away from this is: as much as you can, #buildInPublic.

[+] notch656c|3 years ago|reply
I think you're right that FTX US was likely solvent. But had SBF not been forced to file bankruptcy you can bet he would have gambled all of FTX US to try and bail out FTX Int'l to avoid 100+ years in jail. I think he was just saving that bet for last as it was the most dangerous one.
[+] kuhewa|3 years ago|reply
You haven't reached the anger Kübler-Ross grief stage yet
[+] smcl|3 years ago|reply
The quantity of "he's guilty" comments and tweets are a result of how famously and enormously FTX flamed out and how comically guilty he looks. It's not some unnamed entity (CZ? Binance? The US government?) organising some PR campaign against him.

Re your tweet - are you one of those people who believe a covid vaccine caused that player to collapse? You realise athletes have seemingly randomly or spontaneously collapsed many times before Covid 19 was even discovered - often when they weren't even hit, as Hamlin was.