>“Complete nonsense,” retorts Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, a financial firm. tsmc has almost simultaneously launched a new fab in Taiwan, with four times the wafer capacity—and more advanced technology—than the two proposed Arizona foundries. Its bet on America is more of a long-term insurance policy than an immediate game-changer. It enables tsmc to start the tough job of recruiting a workforce and amassing suppliers in America, providing a baseline for expansion “if the Chinese are crazy enough to bomb Taiwan”. For the foreseeable future, though, most r&d is likely to remain in Taiwan. So will at least four-fifths of tmsc’s capacity.
It is unfortunate the truth and decent analysts dont get enough press coverage because they dont fit the narrative of current trend.
- The only way to understand the Press is to remember that they pander to their readers' prejudices.
It is in China's interests that Taiwan not be the centre of global chip manufacturing. And the US's interest. Europe's too. The situation is delicate, but I suspect in time Taiwan will become less strategically important. Too many powerful players would benefit from that industry going somewhere else. An economic competitive advantage is not enough to make the US take strategic risks, or to hold China off.
It makes sense that there would be literal conspiracies a work in this situation. If I were in Taiwan, I would assume that the US plant represents some sort of threat to the geopolitical status quo. Regardless of what some analyst thinks.
I suspect the PRC won't outright bomb much of Taiwan but instead go straight for the presidential palace in Taipei and try to force an ROC capitulation early.
I think they're counting on the ruling class / landowners / capitalists to pressure the government to capitulate at fear of property destruction, which I also expect to be in line with reality. Doing capitalism in a country like taiwan is better than in the PRC, but doing it in the PRC is better than not being able to do it at all because all your assets were obliterated.
What I think none of these people are counting on is that there are rabidly anti CPC people here in Taiwan, leftist or otherwise, and some of these people engage in post-military service training and drilling. I suspect that if the above comes to pass and the CPC is successful in forcing an ROC surrender, the factories are burning one way or the other, due to "self-sabotage" by workers or guerillas.
Then the PLA gets to have fun for a decade chasing guerillas around the choking thick jungle and mountains that make up the majority of the landmass in Taiwan. Many of these will be indigenous who have lived in the mountains for generations and per capita by demographic make up more of the (non conscripted) military than any other demographic.
I don't think any of this will come to pass though because I, like most people in Taiwan (including the usa consulate staff), believe the possibility of invasion is slim.
I mean, they’re expanding to Japan too. I can totally see how having at least one fab in your country would make you much less worried about choosing TSMC as your supplier, even if most of their actual capacity isn’t there.
I suspect their investments in the US are also simply because the US asked them to and they (including the Taiwanese government) are not in a position to refuse.
China’s problem is that they import something like 80% of their chips (predominantly from Taiwan). The thing is that semi-conductor fabs don’t exactly respond well to war time conditions. So unless China can invade without without any meaningful resistance, it’s likely that it could be a long time before before that capacity is back online, which would cost china (as a large importer) dearly
China does not have that long if they invade. The US does not need to counter Chinese military locally, just hold Japan and cut off Persian Gulf and all food imports. China imports almost all good and energy.
China can only invade Taiwan to start ww3, and only if it is ready to use nukes pretty soon.
The article alludes to but doesn't mention the "silicon shield".
This move by TSMC doesn't weaken the shield, but it weakens the spear. The most likely defender of Taiwan against an aggressor would be the U.S. military. Having a native chipmaking capability somewhat reduces the U.S.'s interest in intervening.
What it doesn't do is incentivize aggression against Taiwan. The likely aggressors would lose access to chips to fuel their economies as long as TSMC doesn't aid or allow those countries to build local fabs.
> The likely aggressors would lose access to chips to fuel their economies
Economic arguments for war being irrational and therefore unlikely have a history of falling flat on their face. Most infamously, this claim was made about major wars in Europe right before the First World War: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion
If there are US fabs, and China invades Taiwan then Taiwanese fabs are destroyed, and China loses access to advanced chips, but the US and the west do not. This puts China at a major disadvantage compared to the US, for at least a few decades in the future, if it decides to invade Taiwan.
It seems unlikely that US and west would get involved in a direct major military conflict with China, no matter what. The costs are too great. It is far more likely that they would only provide military equipment and intelligence (like Ukraine).
So this move of TSMC actually strengthens the shield a lot more than it weakens the spear.
That's because it's not a widely accepted term by any measure. I am all for Taiwan and its liberties, however, I cringe whenever I see journalists have made up a new term like "silicon shield" and expect people to adopt it.
When it comes to international security, I don't think those in charge think about TSMC more than just in passage. Just look at Ukraine. The US is helping Ukraine a lot, but there's pretty much nothing that Ukraine is/was producing that the US needs.
In practice, if war happens and TSMC facilities are bombed to avoid passing into Chinese control, how many years does the world go back in processor state of art? Are we back to 486 level, Athlon 64 level, core family first generation, or what? What is the new average feature size, in nm, we are likely to fall back to if things go south in Taiwan?
I mostly agree with your points but want to point out there's always potential for things to change. The PRC is still investing heavily into developing native chipmaking capability in all stages of the production chain despite a string of high profile failures in the last 5 years. For military purposes the chips don't have to be made with state of the art technology. They just need to be good enough to work and achieve their intended purpose, sometimes rather crudely. Should a breakthrough happen, Taiwan's "silicon shield" could weaken quite a bit.
I still lean towards a "no hot war" scenario because the PRC's demographic structure is deteriorating just like Russia's, and Putin has already demonstrated a lesson with the war in Ukraine.
In exactly what way is this conflict actually heating up lately? I've certainly noticed the increase in news coverage, but don't know of, e.g. military actions by CN/US that indicate conflict coming closer.
President Xi has more reasons to invade Taiwan now than usual. He is getting older, and Taiwan reunification has been on his wish-list for a long time, recently reaffirmed and suggesting force is on the table[1]. The U.S. is currently managing a situation in Ukraine and economic problems, and China is currently in an acute COVID crisis which sparked mass protests, and a less acute economic crisis (reduced GDP growth).
A war would be a great distraction for the local population. The inevitable sanctions and disruption of chip production would excuse poor GDP growth. To top it off, a "glorious victory" (Pyrrhic victory) is pretty likely. The U.S. has global reach, but it's still not as logistically feasible for the U.S. to fight from staged forces in Japan and the Philippines as it is for China to fight from their home territory.
China has mass produced so many warships, they now outnumber the US Navy.
I don't expect that China will make a move yet though, they also are building capital ships, like Aircraft Carriers, and also producing ship killing Hypersonic Missiles.
So the nature is that China is preparing for a fight. Hopefully it's just bluster.
They are largely posturing, even including the arms race and airspace incursions. The risk of ruin of a direct confrontation of th PRC and the USA in a hot war is infinite because the USA reserves the ability to launch pre-emptive nuclear strikes which the PRC would retaliate.
Taiwan buying US equipment yields $$$ for the US. TSMC building fabs in Arizona yields $$$ for TSMC and the US. China selling manufactured goods to Taiwan and the US yields $$$ for China. Media/influencers writing panic-bait to hype up engagement metrics yields $$$ for content creators and shareholders. $$$ is the only thing that matters for every entity involved in this situation.
Also Xi’s consolidation of power and his stated goals, which makes earlier aggression much more likely over some other leader or more distributed power.
And after Pelosi's visit a few months back things have only heated up.
For a long time China was relatively diplomatic about Taiwan. They claimed it was part of China, but they also didn't go out of their way to say "we will take it by any means necessary".
Who knows where this will end ... maybe it'll all be very anti-climatic, or maybe not ... But it's certainly a bit hotter than it was before.
Ah, yes. "When life gives you lemons, get a superpower on another continent to subsidize you to diversify your lemonaid production to within their borders."
You have a long history of posting flamebait to HN. I've been asking you to stop it for years, and it's getting old. Surely you know the site guidelines by now? If you keep breaking them, we are going to have to ban you.
Can someone with some industry experience comment on how RISC-V will change the geopolitical dynamics? From what I understand it's a standardized instruction set (coming out of UCS Berkeley) that would provide a standard design for chips. From what I've read it doesn't sound like the architecture would be able to be able to be used on M1 and M2 chip design, but it does mean that fabrication of chips would be open sourced so long as it conforms to the standard.
To me this sounds like the US is adopting a bet on entrenched monopolies in Intel and TSMC while China is making a bid for open source architectures (I wouldn't say that there are "good guys" and "bad guys" here, only that in the Machiavellian sense the US has first mover advantage in chips and is engaged in import restrictions and RISC-V is a new standard).
I worry that this could have implications for Taiwan if they lose the geopolitical advantage of having a monopoly on chip production. I'm also concerned that the US administration could be placing big bets for the economy on shoring up tech firms that may become outdated when the chip making market becomes competitive again internationally.
The actual chips still have to be made and that's where the conflicts are happening, because China's domestic semiconductor production is still reliant on foreign suppliers such as ASML for crucial stages of production. This isn't a war about instruction sets or computer architecture. And no RISC-V doesn't provide a "standard design" for chips. It is about making different chips made by different parties to be able to run the same programs without the licensing nightmare of Intel-AMD duopoly or ARM.
The West's weak reaction to Russia invading Ukraine has made an invasion of Taiwan likely.
One year later and Russia still occupies parts of Ukraine, Putin is still in power and while Russia has suffered losses due to their own incompetence, Russia itself has barely suffered (well, anymore than its usual state). Russian oligarchs and the family of Russia politicians are still allowed to live in the west as well...
If China's only consequences would be sanctions, they'll gladly take it since half the world cares only about their own needs and would still trade with them, sacrificing Ukraine, Taiwan and others for cheap goods...
People in Ukraine had reasons to break out of Jail of Nations, but I see no single reason to join RF instead of EU and NATO. Most Slavic nations are already in EU, except Ukraine and Belarus. Why Ukraine should join former Golden Horde?
The flamewar you started (and perpetuated) here is among the worst I've ever seen. That's seriously not ok, regardless of how right your cause is or you feel it is.
How deluded by propaganda do people need to believe that Russia is the former Golden Horde.
Here is some education. Ukraine and Russia share a common, ethnic, linguistic and cultural heritage. They also share a common political heritage with the name of the country meaning borderland (of Russia). In fact Ukraine was no more an independent country than Wales until about 30 years ago.
While Russia economically recovered in the early 2000s ukraine stagnated, in part due to pervasive corruption.
Finally in 2014 the elected president of Ukraine was illegally driven out by a mob fired up by pie in the sky hopes of prosperity in the EU / Nato fold.
Now almost a decade later Ukraine is neither in the EU nor NATO and its territory has been ravaged by war.
Meanwhile a former comedian whose first language is Russian is president.
[+] [-] MoSattler|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ksec|3 years ago|reply
It is unfortunate the truth and decent analysts dont get enough press coverage because they dont fit the narrative of current trend.
- The only way to understand the Press is to remember that they pander to their readers' prejudices.
[+] [-] roenxi|3 years ago|reply
It makes sense that there would be literal conspiracies a work in this situation. If I were in Taiwan, I would assume that the US plant represents some sort of threat to the geopolitical status quo. Regardless of what some analyst thinks.
[+] [-] komali2|3 years ago|reply
I think they're counting on the ruling class / landowners / capitalists to pressure the government to capitulate at fear of property destruction, which I also expect to be in line with reality. Doing capitalism in a country like taiwan is better than in the PRC, but doing it in the PRC is better than not being able to do it at all because all your assets were obliterated.
What I think none of these people are counting on is that there are rabidly anti CPC people here in Taiwan, leftist or otherwise, and some of these people engage in post-military service training and drilling. I suspect that if the above comes to pass and the CPC is successful in forcing an ROC surrender, the factories are burning one way or the other, due to "self-sabotage" by workers or guerillas.
Then the PLA gets to have fun for a decade chasing guerillas around the choking thick jungle and mountains that make up the majority of the landmass in Taiwan. Many of these will be indigenous who have lived in the mountains for generations and per capita by demographic make up more of the (non conscripted) military than any other demographic.
I don't think any of this will come to pass though because I, like most people in Taiwan (including the usa consulate staff), believe the possibility of invasion is slim.
[+] [-] Aeolun|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kilroy123|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mytailorisrich|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] balderdash|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kmonsen|3 years ago|reply
China can only invade Taiwan to start ww3, and only if it is ready to use nukes pretty soon.
[+] [-] avidiax|3 years ago|reply
This move by TSMC doesn't weaken the shield, but it weakens the spear. The most likely defender of Taiwan against an aggressor would be the U.S. military. Having a native chipmaking capability somewhat reduces the U.S.'s interest in intervening.
What it doesn't do is incentivize aggression against Taiwan. The likely aggressors would lose access to chips to fuel their economies as long as TSMC doesn't aid or allow those countries to build local fabs.
[+] [-] LarryMullins|3 years ago|reply
Economic arguments for war being irrational and therefore unlikely have a history of falling flat on their face. Most infamously, this claim was made about major wars in Europe right before the First World War: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion
[+] [-] algo646464|3 years ago|reply
It seems unlikely that US and west would get involved in a direct major military conflict with China, no matter what. The costs are too great. It is far more likely that they would only provide military equipment and intelligence (like Ukraine).
So this move of TSMC actually strengthens the shield a lot more than it weakens the spear.
[+] [-] bloodyplonker22|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] layer8|3 years ago|reply
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34417336
[+] [-] credit_guy|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] barumrho|3 years ago|reply
Is there any other than China?
[+] [-] Qem|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ssnistfajen|3 years ago|reply
I still lean towards a "no hot war" scenario because the PRC's demographic structure is deteriorating just like Russia's, and Putin has already demonstrated a lesson with the war in Ukraine.
[+] [-] andrewflnr|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] avidiax|3 years ago|reply
A war would be a great distraction for the local population. The inevitable sanctions and disruption of chip production would excuse poor GDP growth. To top it off, a "glorious victory" (Pyrrhic victory) is pretty likely. The U.S. has global reach, but it's still not as logistically feasible for the U.S. to fight from staged forces in Japan and the Philippines as it is for China to fight from their home territory.
[1] https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-speech-suggests-china-in...
[+] [-] MrOwnPut|3 years ago|reply
2 H-6 nuclear-capable bombers flew south of the island during this combat drill.
The last military combat drill was in late December. They have been ramping up in aggression.
[+] [-] dragontamer|3 years ago|reply
I don't expect that China will make a move yet though, they also are building capital ships, like Aircraft Carriers, and also producing ship killing Hypersonic Missiles.
So the nature is that China is preparing for a fight. Hopefully it's just bluster.
[+] [-] ssnistfajen|3 years ago|reply
Taiwan buying US equipment yields $$$ for the US. TSMC building fabs in Arizona yields $$$ for TSMC and the US. China selling manufactured goods to Taiwan and the US yields $$$ for China. Media/influencers writing panic-bait to hype up engagement metrics yields $$$ for content creators and shareholders. $$$ is the only thing that matters for every entity involved in this situation.
[+] [-] refurb|3 years ago|reply
It’s heated up dramatically with Xi stating a few months ago that “China will take back Taiwan in the next 10 years”.
You can get much more certain than literally one of the actors verbally stating it’s a goal.
[+] [-] aikinai|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] j16sdiz|3 years ago|reply
Event in Russia/Ukraine make us realize war can be started anytime.
[+] [-] arp242|3 years ago|reply
And never mind the whole "Taiwanese are not genetically pure Chinese übermenschen so we must find a final solution for them" https://twitter.com/pybaubry/status/1447466780717289476
And after Pelosi's visit a few months back things have only heated up.
For a long time China was relatively diplomatic about Taiwan. They claimed it was part of China, but they also didn't go out of their way to say "we will take it by any means necessary".
Who knows where this will end ... maybe it'll all be very anti-climatic, or maybe not ... But it's certainly a bit hotter than it was before.
[+] [-] ant6n|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] AnimalMuppet|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] refurb|3 years ago|reply
I assume one of them is “provide enough support to make China bleed heavily, remove anything of value, but don’t start WW3”
[+] [-] dang|3 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31625160 (June 2022)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29655736 (Dec 2021)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29569298 (Dec 2021)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29547334 (Dec 2021)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27477147 (June 2021)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22272727 (Feb 2020)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20072367 (June 2019)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19936285 (May 2019)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16103742 (Jan 2018)
[+] [-] patientplatypus|3 years ago|reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RISC-V https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/tech-war-china-bets-on-...
To me this sounds like the US is adopting a bet on entrenched monopolies in Intel and TSMC while China is making a bid for open source architectures (I wouldn't say that there are "good guys" and "bad guys" here, only that in the Machiavellian sense the US has first mover advantage in chips and is engaged in import restrictions and RISC-V is a new standard).
I worry that this could have implications for Taiwan if they lose the geopolitical advantage of having a monopoly on chip production. I'm also concerned that the US administration could be placing big bets for the economy on shoring up tech firms that may become outdated when the chip making market becomes competitive again internationally.
Thoughts?
[+] [-] ssnistfajen|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Mikeb85|3 years ago|reply
One year later and Russia still occupies parts of Ukraine, Putin is still in power and while Russia has suffered losses due to their own incompetence, Russia itself has barely suffered (well, anymore than its usual state). Russian oligarchs and the family of Russia politicians are still allowed to live in the west as well...
If China's only consequences would be sanctions, they'll gladly take it since half the world cares only about their own needs and would still trade with them, sacrificing Ukraine, Taiwan and others for cheap goods...
[+] [-] kerpotgh|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] drran|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dang|3 years ago|reply
I've also banned your account for repeatedly abusing HN with nationalistic flamewar. Please see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34492895.
The flamewar you started (and perpetuated) here is among the worst I've ever seen. That's seriously not ok, regardless of how right your cause is or you feel it is.
[+] [-] morpheos137|3 years ago|reply
Here is some education. Ukraine and Russia share a common, ethnic, linguistic and cultural heritage. They also share a common political heritage with the name of the country meaning borderland (of Russia). In fact Ukraine was no more an independent country than Wales until about 30 years ago.
While Russia economically recovered in the early 2000s ukraine stagnated, in part due to pervasive corruption.
Finally in 2014 the elected president of Ukraine was illegally driven out by a mob fired up by pie in the sky hopes of prosperity in the EU / Nato fold.
Now almost a decade later Ukraine is neither in the EU nor NATO and its territory has been ravaged by war.
Meanwhile a former comedian whose first language is Russian is president.
Is this what winning looks like?