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suprgeek | 3 years ago

A few items that did not make it into the list:

1) Adani is very close to the current ruling party and the PM - deploying his extensive business network and assets (in various forms) to help get the PM elected (2014) and then re-elected. A bit of googling will reveal the vast scale of politico-corporate nexus between these two - extending all the way back to when they were chums in Gujarat - the Indian state of the PM

2) The only reason the Adani Group has not been hauled up in-front of multiple regulators and law-enforcement agencies on a constant basis is because of #1 above

3)Adani ports seem to be curiously immune to investigations despite literal TONS of drug seizures [1]

4) There were multiple stories of forced resignations being used by the companies across its workforce to trim costs during the pandemic and avoid paying hefty severance per India's strict labor laws

5)A lot of the public sector banks in India are purported to be under pressure to not recall loans or issue fresh loans on demand to him - essentially a federal backstop to all his liabilities - enabling crazy levels of debt

[1] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/adani-ports-says-its-termina...

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kamaal|3 years ago

The article has lots of factual arguments going. But it misses the 1) point you mentioned. Regardless of whatever people like to believe, that guy isn't going crash and burn, go bankrupt or anything like that.

It's fairly simple for the government to bail him out. They already did that to Anil Ambani. It doesn't even have to be a direct payout, there are always 'projects' you can give and pay them some 1000% extra money compared what it would otherwise cost. In other words a government(tax funded) bailout is easily doable and will be done, when the need arises. In many ways the party is just giving money to itself(Electoral bonds).

Just to complete the argument, don't expect any backlash against the government either. The current ruling party enjoys nearly 'no prior conditions' based support from their constituency regardless of whatever they do, no matter big a disaster unfolds. And this is going to be the case for the foreseeable future(think decades).

To summarise, whatever fraud this is, no matter how big the impact of this on the Indian economy. In fact even if takes down the whole set up with him. He is just going to emerge from this fine. And the government will bail him out without any consequences for them.

livueta|3 years ago

> It doesn't even have to be a direct payout, there are always 'projects' you can give and pay them some 1000% extra money compared what it would otherwise cost. In other words a government(tax funded) bailout is easily doable and will be done, when the need arises. In many ways the party is just giving money to itself(Electoral bonds).

I'm reminded of this: https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/12/20/can-indias-richest... / https://archive.is/zPgHY

> Many of the slum’s thousands of cottage industries, which churn out textiles, leather and metal goods by the truckload, will also be relocated within Dharavi’s boundaries, even if they may have to downsize. Those considered to be polluting will be excluded. Whatever former slumland remains will be for Mr Adani. Superbly located on three suburban railway lines, an upcoming metro line and adjacent to Mumbai’s prime commercial district, it could be worth 30,000-40,000 rupees ($360-480) a square foot at today’s rates, reckons Gulam Zia of Knight Frank India, a property firm.

vishnugupta|3 years ago

+100. The short sellers are going to find out, to their dismay, how deeply intertwined Adani group is with the ruling party. Call it what you will, corruption/nepotism/favourtism etc., the net result is Adani group and BJP need each other and there's no way in my life time the ruling govt is going to let it fail for all the reasons you mentioned above.