>I received a briefing tonight at the White House about an object in Montana airspace. I will continue to receive regular updates.
>With questions about the Chinese spy balloon still unanswered, the Biden administration must be fully forthcoming with Montanans and all Americans.
One of Montana's house reps said:
>I am in direct contact with NORCOM and monitoring the latest issue over Havre and the northern border. Airspace is closed due to an object that could interfere with commercial air traffic — the DOD will resume efforts to observe and ground the object in the morning.
The government and military must be more forthcoming with information here. This is generally the case but especially so now. If these are balloons with unclear origin and purpose, be open and honest about that. Don't just let information trickle out from random sources. Establish a single and authoritative line of communication. Failing to get ahead of the narrative gives the appearance of uncertainty and confusion.
Based on some unconfirmed Twitter videos that claimed to be of the sky above Montana, it may have been something travelling in the upper atmosphere or even space that may have been destroyed or broken up at altitude.
> Something is definitely happening. We shot down an object over Alaska yesterday,
A balloon invasion, looks like it.
On a slightly more serious note, I had read yesterday somewhere on Twitter that that thing over Alaska might in fact have been a US meteorological balloon, which would explain the Americans not accusing the Chinese again after they had shot it.
U.S. airspace is pretty wild those last couple of days. Is this "normal" day-to-day activity that previously just never got any attention, or is something rather odd about the amount of these kinds of things in the past few days?
I mentioned in another reply (1), part of it is that they've reduced the filtering of radar signals, resulting in more objects being spotted, but also more false positives.
Previously flying balloons over the US was ignored. Now you're gonna be shot down if you don't have overflight permission.
There are plenty of balloons that fly multiple laps of the earth, weather balloons, spy balloons, school project balloons. Some of them are untracked, and most are uncontrollable. Some are house-size, while others are as small as a party balloon.
"NORAD detected a radar anomaly and sent fighter aircraft to investigate. Those aircraft did not identify any object to correlate to the radar hits. NORAD will continue to monitor the situation."
Interesting, maybe it was a stealth aircraft? NORAD could probably detect a stealth aircraft like the Serbs did in the 1990s, but getting a precise location would be difficult.
If you guys take a look at this from 3 years ago, you'll see that this doesn't seem like an uptick, but rather it seems like it's being publicized a lot more as of recent as well as some good target practice.
That seems pretty focused on the border with Russia over Alaska. The incident in Montana seems pretty far inland for that to apply. I'm sure there are organizations testing the waters all the time, though, be that with bombers or balloons.
These things happen very often and there could be many explanations. Every time the President moves one is declared. There is a permanent one at Beale AFB, CA. And there are permanent ones at Disneyland and Disney World. Any aviation mapping source and many weather apps with aviation data (MyRadar is my choice) shows these come and go.
This would be a useful information operation to push the "UFO" angle being pushed on social media. Rather than the NATO countries broadening their radar search to look for smaller objects, generating plenty of false positives and detection of things they missed before.
Although it might not be related to the Chinese balloon, does the US have the technology to capture it intact vs shooting it down? It seems like they are going through a lot of trouble now to recover the pieces after it was shot down.
Havre is just north of the Hays MOA (Military Operations Area, meaning check with controlling authority before flying because there may be military operations) but this is outside the MOA.
I remember this anime Jormungand in which they used an EMP for the purpose of disabling all flights & satellites, that forces the world to be fully dependent on sea shipping (far fetched but was the story).
On the flight point, I'd find it disappointing if nations uses a cheaper version trolling airspace with balloons.
Edit:
NOTAM : 3/4763
FDC 3/4763 ZLC PART 1 OF 3 MT..AIRSPACE HAVRE, MT..TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. PURSUANT TO 49 USC 40103(B)(3), THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) CLASSIFIES THE AIRSPACE DEFINED IN THIS NOTAM AS 'NTL DEFENSE AIRSPACE'. PILOTS WHO DO NOT ADHERE TO THE FOLLOWING PROC MAY BE INTERCEPTED, DETAINED AND INTERVIEWED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT/ SECURITY PERSONNEL. ANY OF THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIONS MAY ALSO BE TAKEN AGAINST A PILOT WHO DOES NOT COMPLY WITH THE RQMNTS OR ANY SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS OR PROC ANNOUNCED IN THIS NOTAM: A) THE FAA MAY TAKE ADMINISTRATIVE ACTION, INCLUDING IMPOSING CIVIL PENALTIES AND THE SUSPENSION OR REVOCATION OF AIRMEN CERTIFICATES; OR B) THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT MAY PURSUE CRIMINAL CHARGES, INCLUDING CHARGES UNDER 49 USC SECTION 46307; C) THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT MAY USE DEADLY FORCE AGAINST THE AIRBORNE ACFT, IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT THE ACFT POSES AN IMMINENT SECURITY THREAT; OR D) UAS OPERATORS WHO DO NOT COMPLY WITH APPLICABLE AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS ARE WARNED THAT PURSUANT TO 10 U.S.C. SECTION 130I AND 2302120020-PERM END PART 1 OF 3 FDC 3/4763 ZLC PART 2 OF 3 MT..AIRSPACE HAVRE, MT..TEMPORARY FLIGHT 6 U.S.C. SECTION 124N, THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (DOD), THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (DHS) OR THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (DOJ) MAY TAKE SECURITY ACTION THAT RESULTS IN THE INTERFERENCE, DISRUPTION, SEIZURE, DAMAGING, OR DESTRUCTION OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT DEEMED TO POSE A CREDIBLE SAFETY OR SECURITY THREAT TO PROTECTED PERSONNEL, FACILITIES, OR ASSETS. PURSUANT TO 14 CFR 99.7, SPECIAL SECURITY INSTRUCTIONS, ALL ACFT FLT OPS ARE PROHIBITED: WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 485411N1101823W TO 481105N1101922W TO 481145N1091337W TO 485516N1091407W TO THE POINT OF ORIGIN. SFC-34,000' MSL EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. EXCEPTIONS: A) NATIONAL SECURITY ACFT OPS UNDER DIRECTION OF DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE; AND B) LAW ENFORCEMENT, AIR AMBULANCE, AND OTHER URGENT GOVERNMENTAL RESPONSE ACFT OPS WITH AUTHORIZATION FROM ATC (ATC MUST SECURE PRE-APPROVAL BY THE ON DUTY NATIONAL TACTICAL SECURITY OPERATIONS AIR TRAFFIC SECURITY COORDINATOR). 2302120020-PERM END PART 2 OF 3 FDC 3/4763 ZLC PART 3 OF 3 MT..AIRSPACE HAVRE, MT..TEMPORARY FLIGHT ALL AIRCRAFT, WHICH ARE ALREADY AIRBORNE WITHIN THE DEFINED AIRSPACE WHEN THIS TFR BECOMES EFFECTIVE, MUST EXIT THE AREA USING THE MOST EXPEDITIOUS ROUTE CONSISTENT WITH SAFETY AND IN COORDINATION WITH ATC AS APPROPRIATE. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE TEL 850-283-5242 IS THE CDN FACILITY. 2302120020-PERM END PART 3 OF 3
About 12 years ago, I created a tool called IntelliCAPS, which intelligently converts ALL CAPS to mixed case. Basically, if the word is not in the dictionary, it assumes it's a proper noun and capitalizes it. It also recognizes some common acronyms and preserves them as all-caps. It's not perfect, but it's arguably more readable than the original.
Here's its output:
Notam : 3/4763 FDC 3/4763 ZLC part 1 of 3 mt..airspace Havre, mt..temporary flight restrictions. Pursuant to 49 USC 40103(b)(3), the federal aviation administration (FAA) classifies the airspace defined in this Notam as 'NTL defense airspace'. Pilots who do not adhere to the following Proc may be intercepted, detained and interviewed by law enforcement/ security personnel. Any of the following additional actions may also be taken against a pilot who does not comply with the Rqmnts or any special instructions or Proc announced in this Notam: a) the FAA may take administrative action, including imposing civil penalties and the suspension or revocation of airmen certificates; or b) the united states government may pursue criminal charges, including charges under 49 USC section 46307; c) the united states government may use deadly force against the airborne Acft, if it is determined that the Acft poses an imminent security threat; or d) UAS operators who do not comply with applicable airspace restrictions are warned that pursuant to 10 u.s.c. Section 130i and 2302120020-perm end part 1 of 3 FDC 3/4763 ZLC part 2 of 3 mt..airspace Havre, mt..temporary flight 6 u.s.c. Section 124n, the department of defense (DOD), the department of homeland security (DHS) or the department of justice (DOJ) may take security action that results in the interference, disruption, seizure, damaging, or destruction of unmanned aircraft deemed to pose a credible safety or security threat to protected personnel, facilities, or assets. Pursuant to 14 CFR 99.7, special security instructions, all Acft flt ops are prohibited: WI an area defined as 485411n1101823w to 481105n1101922w to 481145n1091337w to 485516n1091407w to the point of origin. SFC-34,000' MSL effective immediately until further notice. Exceptions: a) national security Acft ops under direction of department of defense; and b) law enforcement, air ambulance, and other urgent governmental response Acft ops with authorization from ATC (ATC must secure PRE-approval by the on duty national tactical security operations air traffic security coordinator). 2302120020-perm end part 2 of 3 FDC 3/4763 ZLC part 3 of 3 mt..airspace Havre, mt..temporary flight all aircraft, which are already airborne within the defined airspace when this TFR becomes effective, must exit the area using the most expeditious route consistent with safety and in coordination with ATC as appropriate. Department of defense tel 850-283-5242 is the CDN facility. 2302120020-perm end part 3 of 3
> A second U.S official also told ABC News that while the main reconnaissance section of the balloon has been found, recovery operations have been suspended until Monday because of rough waters. The official said the rough weather was outside the window under which Navy divers could safely conduct operations.
> Because of harsh conditions, measures have been taken to ensure that the debris underwater doesn't move with the currents. Among those measures, the official said, was the addition of weights and acoustic-pinging devices so they can be easily located once operations resume.
> The USS Carter Hall has returned to shore with the balloon remnants recovered so far and a contracted crane ship has arrived at the location offshore and will remain there until salvage operations resume.
It's funny. Meteorological departments in so many countries around the world release balloons every day. Why is it aimed at China? Are Chinese balloons different?
This doesn’t make game theoretic sense. There is a ladder of escalation but nuclear surprise attacks are at the end. A single surprise nuclear strike makes little sense because it would preempt an immediate counterforce strike. In that case it makes more sense to just do a full counterforce strike yourself.
Let me be clear it doesn’t make sense for USA or PRC to use nuclear weapons at this time. There’s simply no need to escalate all the way.
Then it’ll be found and the consequences of having launched a nuclear weapon at the United States will be incurred for no gain whatsoever. That is to say, 0% chance. That would be unfathomably dumb.
After the first balloon, there was post about think tank worried about balloons carrying nuclear weapons that could produce EMP which would knock out electrical grid.
The problem with that scenario is that the US would respond as if nuke was used on the ground.
The balloon is just delivery mechanism for their fears. Could be equally worried about private jets.
[+] [-] thepasswordis|3 years ago|reply
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovGianforte/status/1624596970491...
>I received a briefing tonight at the White House about an object in Montana airspace. I will continue to receive regular updates.
>With questions about the Chinese spy balloon still unanswered, the Biden administration must be fully forthcoming with Montanans and all Americans.
One of Montana's house reps said:
>I am in direct contact with NORCOM and monitoring the latest issue over Havre and the northern border. Airspace is closed due to an object that could interfere with commercial air traffic — the DOD will resume efforts to observe and ground the object in the morning.
https://twitter.com/RepRosendale/status/1624579901608034306
Something is definitely happening. We shot down an object over Alaska yesterday, and then again today we shot down yet another object over Canada.
That's three objects shot down in about a week, whereas the last time we shot anything down over US airspace was arguably during WW2.
[+] [-] auctoritas|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] uoaei|3 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/0rangeandwhite/status/162460072656239001...
Interestingly, none of the reports state that the US or allies engaged or shot down the object.
[+] [-] JCM9|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] paganel|3 years ago|reply
A balloon invasion, looks like it.
On a slightly more serious note, I had read yesterday somewhere on Twitter that that thing over Alaska might in fact have been a US meteorological balloon, which would explain the Americans not accusing the Chinese again after they had shot it.
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] golemotron|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] whamlastxmas|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] wolverine876|3 years ago|reply
A social media misinformation storm?
[+] [-] NikxDa|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tempestn|3 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34759149
[+] [-] FL410|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] londons_explore|3 years ago|reply
Previously flying balloons over the US was ignored. Now you're gonna be shot down if you don't have overflight permission.
There are plenty of balloons that fly multiple laps of the earth, weather balloons, spy balloons, school project balloons. Some of them are untracked, and most are uncontrollable. Some are house-size, while others are as small as a party balloon.
[+] [-] leonidasv|3 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624595395635474433
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/16245934178785280...
[+] [-] moose_man|3 years ago|reply
Interesting, maybe it was a stealth aircraft? NORAD could probably detect a stealth aircraft like the Serbs did in the 1990s, but getting a precise location would be difficult.
[+] [-] ipnon|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] _boffin_|3 years ago|reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Midn_UNnj5I
[+] [-] ultrarunner|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dadadad100|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] detrites|3 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/16247347660578037...
(Separate post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34762443 )
[+] [-] dmix|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kqr2|3 years ago|reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-air_retrieval
[+] [-] sjs382|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dyno12345|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sleepybrett|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hoppyhoppy2|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cirrus3|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ksherlock|3 years ago|reply
http://vfrmap.com/?type=vfrc&lat=48.543&lon=-109.762&zoom=9
[+] [-] amrb|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] moose_man|3 years ago|reply
Edit: NOTAM : 3/4763 FDC 3/4763 ZLC PART 1 OF 3 MT..AIRSPACE HAVRE, MT..TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. PURSUANT TO 49 USC 40103(B)(3), THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) CLASSIFIES THE AIRSPACE DEFINED IN THIS NOTAM AS 'NTL DEFENSE AIRSPACE'. PILOTS WHO DO NOT ADHERE TO THE FOLLOWING PROC MAY BE INTERCEPTED, DETAINED AND INTERVIEWED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT/ SECURITY PERSONNEL. ANY OF THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIONS MAY ALSO BE TAKEN AGAINST A PILOT WHO DOES NOT COMPLY WITH THE RQMNTS OR ANY SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS OR PROC ANNOUNCED IN THIS NOTAM: A) THE FAA MAY TAKE ADMINISTRATIVE ACTION, INCLUDING IMPOSING CIVIL PENALTIES AND THE SUSPENSION OR REVOCATION OF AIRMEN CERTIFICATES; OR B) THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT MAY PURSUE CRIMINAL CHARGES, INCLUDING CHARGES UNDER 49 USC SECTION 46307; C) THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT MAY USE DEADLY FORCE AGAINST THE AIRBORNE ACFT, IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT THE ACFT POSES AN IMMINENT SECURITY THREAT; OR D) UAS OPERATORS WHO DO NOT COMPLY WITH APPLICABLE AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS ARE WARNED THAT PURSUANT TO 10 U.S.C. SECTION 130I AND 2302120020-PERM END PART 1 OF 3 FDC 3/4763 ZLC PART 2 OF 3 MT..AIRSPACE HAVRE, MT..TEMPORARY FLIGHT 6 U.S.C. SECTION 124N, THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (DOD), THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (DHS) OR THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (DOJ) MAY TAKE SECURITY ACTION THAT RESULTS IN THE INTERFERENCE, DISRUPTION, SEIZURE, DAMAGING, OR DESTRUCTION OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT DEEMED TO POSE A CREDIBLE SAFETY OR SECURITY THREAT TO PROTECTED PERSONNEL, FACILITIES, OR ASSETS. PURSUANT TO 14 CFR 99.7, SPECIAL SECURITY INSTRUCTIONS, ALL ACFT FLT OPS ARE PROHIBITED: WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 485411N1101823W TO 481105N1101922W TO 481145N1091337W TO 485516N1091407W TO THE POINT OF ORIGIN. SFC-34,000' MSL EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. EXCEPTIONS: A) NATIONAL SECURITY ACFT OPS UNDER DIRECTION OF DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE; AND B) LAW ENFORCEMENT, AIR AMBULANCE, AND OTHER URGENT GOVERNMENTAL RESPONSE ACFT OPS WITH AUTHORIZATION FROM ATC (ATC MUST SECURE PRE-APPROVAL BY THE ON DUTY NATIONAL TACTICAL SECURITY OPERATIONS AIR TRAFFIC SECURITY COORDINATOR). 2302120020-PERM END PART 2 OF 3 FDC 3/4763 ZLC PART 3 OF 3 MT..AIRSPACE HAVRE, MT..TEMPORARY FLIGHT ALL AIRCRAFT, WHICH ARE ALREADY AIRBORNE WITHIN THE DEFINED AIRSPACE WHEN THIS TFR BECOMES EFFECTIVE, MUST EXIT THE AREA USING THE MOST EXPEDITIOUS ROUTE CONSISTENT WITH SAFETY AND IN COORDINATION WITH ATC AS APPROPRIATE. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE TEL 850-283-5242 IS THE CDN FACILITY. 2302120020-PERM END PART 3 OF 3
F15s launched out of Portland airbase https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624576868140679168?...
Billings airport is closed due to national security activity - https://twitter.com/AviationTracker/status/16245785548631654...
Two tankers tasked to the area -https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1624570681710063618
F15 Scramble Audio - https://twitter.com/airplaneian/status/1624572671911424000
[+] [-] jawns|3 years ago|reply
Here's its output:
Notam : 3/4763 FDC 3/4763 ZLC part 1 of 3 mt..airspace Havre, mt..temporary flight restrictions. Pursuant to 49 USC 40103(b)(3), the federal aviation administration (FAA) classifies the airspace defined in this Notam as 'NTL defense airspace'. Pilots who do not adhere to the following Proc may be intercepted, detained and interviewed by law enforcement/ security personnel. Any of the following additional actions may also be taken against a pilot who does not comply with the Rqmnts or any special instructions or Proc announced in this Notam: a) the FAA may take administrative action, including imposing civil penalties and the suspension or revocation of airmen certificates; or b) the united states government may pursue criminal charges, including charges under 49 USC section 46307; c) the united states government may use deadly force against the airborne Acft, if it is determined that the Acft poses an imminent security threat; or d) UAS operators who do not comply with applicable airspace restrictions are warned that pursuant to 10 u.s.c. Section 130i and 2302120020-perm end part 1 of 3 FDC 3/4763 ZLC part 2 of 3 mt..airspace Havre, mt..temporary flight 6 u.s.c. Section 124n, the department of defense (DOD), the department of homeland security (DHS) or the department of justice (DOJ) may take security action that results in the interference, disruption, seizure, damaging, or destruction of unmanned aircraft deemed to pose a credible safety or security threat to protected personnel, facilities, or assets. Pursuant to 14 CFR 99.7, special security instructions, all Acft flt ops are prohibited: WI an area defined as 485411n1101823w to 481105n1101922w to 481145n1091337w to 485516n1091407w to the point of origin. SFC-34,000' MSL effective immediately until further notice. Exceptions: a) national security Acft ops under direction of department of defense; and b) law enforcement, air ambulance, and other urgent governmental response Acft ops with authorization from ATC (ATC must secure PRE-approval by the on duty national tactical security operations air traffic security coordinator). 2302120020-perm end part 2 of 3 FDC 3/4763 ZLC part 3 of 3 mt..airspace Havre, mt..temporary flight all aircraft, which are already airborne within the defined airspace when this TFR becomes effective, must exit the area using the most expeditious route consistent with safety and in coordination with ATC as appropriate. Department of defense tel 850-283-5242 is the CDN facility. 2302120020-perm end part 3 of 3
[+] [-] giardini|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] judge2020|3 years ago|reply
> A second U.S official also told ABC News that while the main reconnaissance section of the balloon has been found, recovery operations have been suspended until Monday because of rough waters. The official said the rough weather was outside the window under which Navy divers could safely conduct operations.
> Because of harsh conditions, measures have been taken to ensure that the debris underwater doesn't move with the currents. Among those measures, the official said, was the addition of weights and acoustic-pinging devices so they can be easily located once operations resume.
> The USS Carter Hall has returned to shore with the balloon remnants recovered so far and a contracted crane ship has arrived at the location offshore and will remain there until salvage operations resume.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-believes-chinese-surveill...
[+] [-] cycrutchfield|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] zeristor|3 years ago|reply
Maybe we’ll get to the 99th in a month or so at this rate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99_Luftballons
[+] [-] hnczwml|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nszceta|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ipnon|3 years ago|reply
Let me be clear it doesn’t make sense for USA or PRC to use nuclear weapons at this time. There’s simply no need to escalate all the way.
[+] [-] oneoff786|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] awb|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ianburrell|3 years ago|reply
The problem with that scenario is that the US would respond as if nuke was used on the ground.
The balloon is just delivery mechanism for their fears. Could be equally worried about private jets.
[+] [-] singron|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tus666|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] vkou|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TEP_Kim_Il_Sung|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aaron695|3 years ago|reply
[deleted]