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slopbop | 3 years ago

Sigma algebras are useful even in a finite setting where we don't have to worry about pathologies. Think of them as modelling the lack of complete information in a probabilistic setting. If I know exactly which sample point represents my state, then I know the exact value of any random variable. If instead I only know that my state belongs to a given member of my sigma algebra, then I have some information, but not enough to necessarily pinpoint the value of a random variable.

In fact, the familiar tools of measure theory can take this intuition further. If a random variable is measurable with respect to a sigma algebra, then knowing which element of that sigma algebra my state is in actually is sufficient to pinpoint the value of a random variable.

Maybe to make this more concrete:

Let's say I'm going to do two coinflips. My probability space is {HH, HT, TH, TT}. You can check for yourself that the sigma algebra generated by {{HH, HT}}, {TT, TH}} is not the trivial one- this is the sigma algebra that represents "Knowing the value of the first flip, but not the second".

If we let X_first and X_second be 1 or 0 if the first or second flip is H or T respectively, then X_first is measurable with respect to this sigma algebra, but X_second is not.

With Martingales and other stochastic processes, we don't generally have just one sigma algebra, but a sequence of sigma algebras called a "filtration", where each sigma algebra is finer than the last (ie, contains more sets, therefore gives you more measurable random variables). This filtration sort of defines the stochastic process- it's encoding the slow drip of extra information as the stochastic process evolves over time.

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