top | item 34985088

(no title)

dnsco | 3 years ago

The optimism reminds me of all of the "In the year 2000, cars will fly!" of yore.

discuss

order

melling|3 years ago

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic.

Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,…

The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

gorjusborg|3 years ago

Right now, life expectancy in U.S. is dropping, not rising: https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA

The fact that some individuals survive longer than the average isn't an indication of the average outcome.

I sincerely hope that the trend does change direction, but I am currently skeptical.

guessbest|3 years ago

You are picking the wealthiest people in the world as an example. Most of the population to even wealthy do not have access to this kind of health care, which is going to be exacerbated by health care rationing as populations explode due to international immigration.

masklinn|3 years ago

> 100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic.

It does.

> Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,…

The average life expectancy at birth in the US is 77.28 (men 74.5, women 80.20), and trending down. The country with the highest life expectancy at birth is Japan with 84.62 / 81.64 / 87.74.

That some people live to 100 doesn't mean people, on average, do. People, on average, don't. People with the right generics (and ideally good medical access) may.

> Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,…

Nixon, Reagan, and HW died at 81, 93 and 94, Ossie Davis died at 87, David Tomlinson at 83, Sally Ann Howes at 91, Lionel Jeffries at 83, ...

twobitshifter|3 years ago

Ok, but for 100 to be the average life expectancy, we’d have to either shift the curve so that half of people live much longer than 100, and really tighten the distribution, so that deaths at 60 and 70 don’t happen anymore. Something like 85-115.

nasseri|3 years ago

Your talking about some of the richest and most well cared for people on the planet, not the average person

ygjb|3 years ago

Those are all individuals who had access to the finest health care on the planet, and teams of folks at various periods of their lives to focus on them and their health. Access to health care, and personalized health care on top of that is just one other aspect of the degree of luck it took them to reach those ages.

Whether it's a car accident, an earthquake, or an aggressive oncogene that gets activated by a cosmic ray or cup of diet pop, there are way too many things that will straight up kill us despite our otherwise healthy or privileged lifestyles.

Treating diseases does have an impact on extending the average lifespan, but early health interventions (that is, vaccinations, fewer babies dying from preventable illness or malnutrition, and women's pre- and peri-natal health care) has been far more impactful. Stretching that long-tail out in the future is going to require significant advances in treating and remediating aging and it's related indignities.

junon|3 years ago

I honestly had no idea any of those people were still alive.