[aquarium87]

And yet the chances of some do good scientists opening more labs and refining crispr and playing saviour to stop the next pandemic means that the odds of another lab leak is increasing much faster than natural spillover.

In natural spillover, the disease gets a single shot at infecting and then transmitting.

In a lab leak, the disease has been kept alive and cultured with human cells for hundred of generations. Then undergone various genetic tweaks to see where if might attack and take hold in humans. If it can escape the lab, it has astronomically better odds of surviving in humans and transmitting to other humans.

I'm doubtful we see more than 2 or 3 natural spillover events in the next 50 years. I'm expecting a dozen lab leaks in that time the way technology and collection efforts are going.

The 2030s are going to be a shit show. The crispr tools available.... OmG

[dang]

Could you please stop breaking the site guidelines? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly.

We've had to ask you this several times before - if it keeps up, we're going to have to ban you, so if you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.