With India also discovering a very large amount of lithium reserves very recently, lithium might end up being abundant and accelerate the EV transition even faster.
If I had a nickel mine for every time I've pointed out to someone that the "proven reserves" of lithium on a USGS two page PDF are completely uncorrelated to the amount of lithium that will soon be discovered, I'd be extremely wealthy with cobalt. (Cobalt is a common byproduct of nickel mining.)
Even looking at the year-after-year increases in known lithium resources over the past decade shows massive increases.
Lithium will not be a scarce material. The only difficulty in a speedy transition is planning: deploying capital at the right places so that there's not too much mining nor too little. Making enough battery production capacity, but not too little.
There is a ton of money to be made in batteries, but there's a lot of risk due to uncertainty of size of market and timing.
Iirc, lithium is abundant, it just is enough of a pain (and water consuming) to purify and extract that you want to bootstrap with a high purity source.
More than total lithium, I would want to know how pure it starts and what the access to water is like at any given site.
I believe even ocean water is a potential source of Lithium if we ever get constrained on more direct sources. Unfortunately it's not really Lithium holding back EVs, it's Cobalt and a few other rare earth metals. Also not sure how much having Lithium locked up in a heavily sanctioned country will help the big battery manufacturers. Edit: typos
If you were to electrify all the vehicles in the world today (and the developing world hasn't even got lots of cars yet), it would take 1/2 the world's known supply of lithium. and those batteries only last about 8 to 10 years.
Lithium become abundant, no way. Not with the amounts we're using up per capita and the enormous population on this planet. the green revolution is just getting started and there's definitely not enough to go around.
I'm so sick of these articles. The amount of 'lithium discovered' articles are crazy. Nobody cares, lithium is plentiful, it exists in lots of places and we haven't even looked for it much. If people really search for it, it would show up in many more places.
The problem with lithium is not finding a resource, but doing the necessary chemical process to get it to be battery quality lithium. Lithium is not like base metal mining at all. Lithium is more like a specialty chemical, each resources and purification process has to get separately designed, and has to be individually verified by each battery (or battery materials company).
There are only very, very few companies who actually sell battery grade lithium, and lots of junior minors with lots of lithium in the ground and very little chance of developing it.
Iran will not be developing its own battery grade lithium anytime soon, no matter how large their resource.
Pop quiz: name the world’s largest producer of lithium.
Lithium production is important but lithium is not the next oil. It’s not going to dominate the world economy. There aren’t going to be wars fought over it. And we will ultimately extract plenty of it to build EVs.
Probably not. The US has huge and readily accessible lithium reserves in the Salton Sea in California, the issues with extracting it are the availability of water and the cost of environmental management around the site. We don't need other countries' lithium, as such.
Two weeks from now, we are going to discover that those reserves are basically inaccessible, and all of this was a publicity stunt to bait naïve investors.
It's not sickening, it's a poignant reflection of history, especially since the current status of Iran was effectively caused by a previous western coup to capture the oil production.
there's nothing strange about a country going to war over a resource. Has been happening for a long time in history, and there's no reason that anything in the modern world changed human nature.
Except that lithium isn't valuable enough to go to war over at the moment.
Now, the threat of being able to develop and fire nukes, on the other hand, is something that might be war-worthy.
While it might be sickening, more importantly it's against the guidelines[1] of Hacker News because it does not contribute to the conversation. As a result, I've flagged this thread.
> According to a senior official of the Iranian Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade (MIMT), the lithium deposits could contain some 8.5 million metric tons (MT) ready for extraction, which would make it one of the largest global discoveries.
Could? This article title implies they have, but the text implies they are searching still and have not actually found it.
The text implies they know exactly where it is but have not yet sufficiently measured it in order to create rich 3D volumetric maps laying out the various zouns of mineral concentrations at what PPM \ PPB 's ( parts per million | per billion ).
Technically this makes it a "resource" (ie. guesstimate) rather than a "reserve" (drill mapped with a solid plan on extraction methods, costs, estimated profits etc. to a JORC (or equiv) standard).
And besides that Lithium is even harder to transport than oil is. You need blue team to occupy the mines and secure a perimeter so that red team cannot disrupt not only extraction but also transportation to the nearest port.
From what I understand the lithium bottleneck seems similar to the lumber bottleneck in 2021. It's not the lack of trees but the lack of processing facilities.
But instead of lack of workers or technical know-how it's the pollution produced.
There is quite a lot of lithium in Europe already, e.g. in Serbia [1]. However lithium mining is extremely environmentally destructive, and those sorts of things usually aren't accepted by Europeans.
[+] [-] npalli|3 years ago|reply
[1] https://innovationorigins.com/en/india-discovers-5-5-of-worl...
[+] [-] epistasis|3 years ago|reply
Even looking at the year-after-year increases in known lithium resources over the past decade shows massive increases.
Lithium will not be a scarce material. The only difficulty in a speedy transition is planning: deploying capital at the right places so that there's not too much mining nor too little. Making enough battery production capacity, but not too little.
There is a ton of money to be made in batteries, but there's a lot of risk due to uncertainty of size of market and timing.
[+] [-] throwawaymaths|3 years ago|reply
More than total lithium, I would want to know how pure it starts and what the access to water is like at any given site.
[+] [-] agumonkey|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gleenn|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] megaman8|3 years ago|reply
Lithium become abundant, no way. Not with the amounts we're using up per capita and the enormous population on this planet. the green revolution is just getting started and there's definitely not enough to go around.
[+] [-] panick21_|3 years ago|reply
The problem with lithium is not finding a resource, but doing the necessary chemical process to get it to be battery quality lithium. Lithium is not like base metal mining at all. Lithium is more like a specialty chemical, each resources and purification process has to get separately designed, and has to be individually verified by each battery (or battery materials company).
There are only very, very few companies who actually sell battery grade lithium, and lots of junior minors with lots of lithium in the ground and very little chance of developing it.
Iran will not be developing its own battery grade lithium anytime soon, no matter how large their resource.
[+] [-] smugma|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] FlyingSnake|3 years ago|reply
1: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blexplainer/the-lithium...
[+] [-] lambdasquirrel|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rgmerk|3 years ago|reply
Lithium production is important but lithium is not the next oil. It’s not going to dominate the world economy. There aren’t going to be wars fought over it. And we will ultimately extract plenty of it to build EVs.
[+] [-] glitchc|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nixass|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] psychphysic|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anigbrowl|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] 0xDEF|3 years ago|reply
https://gdil.org/behind-the-veil-the-marketing-of-iranian-st...
That doesn't mean it's false. Just read it with healthy scepticism.
[+] [-] yrdmb|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] shaky-carrousel|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] ijustlovemath|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fsloth|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] RobotToaster|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chii|3 years ago|reply
there's nothing strange about a country going to war over a resource. Has been happening for a long time in history, and there's no reason that anything in the modern world changed human nature.
Except that lithium isn't valuable enough to go to war over at the moment.
Now, the threat of being able to develop and fire nukes, on the other hand, is something that might be war-worthy.
[+] [-] amval|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] josefresco|3 years ago|reply
1. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
[+] [-] stiltzkin|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] shmde|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dubcanada|3 years ago|reply
Could? This article title implies they have, but the text implies they are searching still and have not actually found it.
[+] [-] defrost|3 years ago|reply
Technically this makes it a "resource" (ie. guesstimate) rather than a "reserve" (drill mapped with a solid plan on extraction methods, costs, estimated profits etc. to a JORC (or equiv) standard).
[+] [-] ck2|3 years ago|reply
The problem was no-one wants to extract it for the bare minimum prices it will produce.
Exact same fallacy as with oil, ie. in the US it's only profitable to frack when the price per barrel is fetching more than $50
[+] [-] JumpinJack_Cash|3 years ago|reply
And besides that Lithium is even harder to transport than oil is. You need blue team to occupy the mines and secure a perimeter so that red team cannot disrupt not only extraction but also transportation to the nearest port.
[+] [-] oblak|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] throwayyy479087|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] PaywallBuster|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] RobotToaster|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] e12e|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pelasaco|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|3 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] notShabu|3 years ago|reply
But instead of lack of workers or technical know-how it's the pollution produced.
[+] [-] Aardwolf|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sofixa|3 years ago|reply
1 - https://mondediplo.com/2022/11/10serbia
[+] [-] thatguy0900|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 7373737373|3 years ago|reply
How much is "resource poverty" a matter of low resource concentration vs (exploration)-absence?
How do the economics change with changing energy and labor prices?
What is the relationship between resources and the building of infrastructure, in terms of logistics and also permanent settling?
Are many extraction and refining methods monopolized through patents or other mechanisms?
[+] [-] skrbjc|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wslh|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] seydor|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] user3939382|3 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mistermann|3 years ago|reply
Oh how I love irony, though I suspect our geopolitical rivals don't share my sentiments.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_truth_effect
[+] [-] leke|3 years ago|reply