[Werewolf255]

I want to like this article but I think it really underplays the nature and (modern) frequency of black swan events. If I were to take the advice of this article in 1994, I would be going full bore into telephony and set-top internet boxes that attach to 4:3 SD televisions.

This sort of thinking works. . . until it doesn't. It's how we get the vintage zeerust type of Sci-Fi works.

- Ebooks will, of course, be delivered to your TRS-80 after you dial a phone number to buy it from a print catalog.

- Daily news will never go out of fashion (there's always -something- happening!) but printing newspapers creates a bunch of waste. People will, instead, buy a single newspaper that they keep and exchange at a 'newsstand' where your old paper is erased and a new edition printed on top, for a small fee.

[sogen]

> telephone

It should be mostly about "communication"

> televisions, news

Same, "entertainment", and "know about latest events"

[k__]

The trick is to identify what will change and what won't.