I think you're confused about the politics of the region. The US isn't a major factor in the decision making of central Asian countries. China however has taken a much more active role in central Asia which has changed the balance of power and enabled countries to disengage more from Russia.
Russia isn't currently in a position to invade another country.
In the medium-long term, *stans might want to balance the relations between Russia and China (and a bit with the West) which might make further Russian invasions unlikely.
Yeah to me (admittedly a complete outsider) they seem to just barely have the capability to remain in the fight in Ukraine, it's almost unthinkable that they'd try to open another front.
I've also been wondering recently if Georgia might see this war as an opportune moment to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia, or if Moldova might attempt to reestablish control of Transnistria. With Russia underresourced and distracted there may not ever be a better time to do so. Note that I understand this is complex and that none of those three regions are officially 100% controlled and occupied by Russia the way Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk are, and that residents might not 100% desire to be "liberated" (I haven't spoken to anyone from those and don't follow opinion polling).
The current Kazakh leadership certainly seems to be intent on balancing Chinese, Russian and Western influences. In the future, possibly even South Asian influences.
It makes sense; Kazakhstan is a huge country, can't be easily subdued by force, so diplomacy is the name of the game, and it pays to be "an expensive bride" to multiple suitors. Especially when accounting for Kazakh natural resources.
nslocum|3 years ago
The_Colonel|3 years ago
In the medium-long term, *stans might want to balance the relations between Russia and China (and a bit with the West) which might make further Russian invasions unlikely.
smcl|3 years ago
I've also been wondering recently if Georgia might see this war as an opportune moment to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia, or if Moldova might attempt to reestablish control of Transnistria. With Russia underresourced and distracted there may not ever be a better time to do so. Note that I understand this is complex and that none of those three regions are officially 100% controlled and occupied by Russia the way Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk are, and that residents might not 100% desire to be "liberated" (I haven't spoken to anyone from those and don't follow opinion polling).
inglor_cz|3 years ago
It makes sense; Kazakhstan is a huge country, can't be easily subdued by force, so diplomacy is the name of the game, and it pays to be "an expensive bride" to multiple suitors. Especially when accounting for Kazakh natural resources.
5e92cb50239222b|3 years ago
throwaway6734|3 years ago