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carbonatedmilk | 3 years ago

This just keeps getting weirder.

From the infamous irony quotes 'balance sheet': https://d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net/production/7ab64a3b-6c...

Liablities: $8.8bn of customer deposits

* $6.6bn-ish in USD or USDT

* $2.2bn in crypto

* I'm assuming the 'poorly labelled $8bn' is included in this amount, and you don't add it

Assets: $2.5bn?

* $1.5bn of liquid assets.

* $1bn-ish? of illiquid assets.

* Most of these numbers are just made up, but let's finger-in-the-wind them at $1bn ($500m at least is in 'locked USDT')

Now we find out they have another magical pool of money, the $3.2bn that they'd taken out of FTX and put in their pockets.

So the position looks really different: They had $8.8bn on one side of the ledger, and $5.7bn on the other side - After the massive bank run which collapsed the price of their shitcoins.

It appears they had the money to pay out most of their USD / USDT depositors at $0.85 on the dollar, which is obviously still 'insolvent', but possibly enough to survive a bank run (almost) all the way down to the ground (If you suspend redemptions of your crypto and persuade 15% of your USD depositors not to pull their money out)

The final question is: Who did they owe the liabilities to? If some of those 'deposits' were actually owed to other FTX-associated entities, it seems even more survivable, and would probably have preserved some of the value of their shitcoins

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