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flask_manager | 2 years ago

I suspect tools like this will become excellent at all the slight variations and duplicate work that goes on in a whole bunch of development work. To the point where especially for the low complexity work you get enough productivity increase that you actually begin to reduce the demand for programmers in general.

I wonder what the proportions work out to be, if you break the work into "the hard bit" vs the "automatable bit", Ive defiantly worked on projects where there is one novel bit that had to be done just right, but 80% of the time was still spent setting up standard databases, payment processors, customer interfaces.

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matwood|2 years ago

I disagree on the reduce demand part. Companies have no shortage of ideas and products they want to implement. Execution is the limiting factor right now. I fully expect programmer demand to remain constant at first and then increase as new classes of products are made possible because of AI.

BTW, this is what’s happened with every other programmer productivity increase. No company has responded with ‘cool, our product is done’ and instead has expanded what the product can do. Customers then expect more, and the cycle continues.