[cjdoc29]

> but because they have such brand cache that they could sell 100m of anything once the market learns about them

I partially disagree with this argument. They sold some 10 million units in 2016 - it might be that because of the success and ubiquity of iPods and iPhones in the decade leading up to this, that people thought that the first Apple Watch was a great product (it wasn't, really IMO). Brand cache, or whatever, sure.

But you don't sell nearly 60 million units in 2021 off luck.

[anonymouse008]

Let's put it in these terms:

The number of Apple customers from iPod that transitioned to iPhone was x%,

The number of iPhone to AirPods was y%

The number of iPhone to Watch was z%

z < y

z < x

in a cumulative measure from a time frame of 3 years from launch. Defining the proportion of current customers to converted sales is where one can play words with defining luck vs. skill vs. rent-seeking. If you have billions units and only convert 20% vs. other products that convert 75%, then maybe one is considered inferior to the other - and to which I confer the title of luck.

Now the fun question would be if x < y or the other way around.