"I’m sure I’ll catch a lot of flak for that prediction, but it wouldn’t be the first time. People called me crazy when I predicted the end of console gaming, too."
The author makes that statement as though this example vindicates him, while the death of console gaming is far from a foregone conclusion (the only way one could present a credible argument for the death of console gaming is by arguing that modern consoles are actually PCs, an argument which is at best a technical red herring).
The observation that "hey, phone cameras are pretty nice these days" isn't novel or bold, and it's not a Holmsean tour-de-force to extrapolate the declining point-and-shoot market. This is sort of like writing an article in 2003 saying "if you're a camera manufacturer who relies on 35mm film cameras to stay afloat, you should be worried as hell".
Not only is the observation that P&S cameras are going to decline obvious, the author posted this after various P&S manufacturers reported on said decline. This is like predicting the Superbowl champion on Monday.
In other news, alarm clocks, MP3 players, GPS units, and voice dictation devices are all going to decline at the hands of smartphones. News at 11.
Which manufacturers rely on point and shoots to stay afloat?
You're point is valid, though not exactly contrarian. The decline of point and shoots became pretty obvious when the iphone 3g was released. I'm sure this is why every manufacturer has been diversifying their lineups away from point and shoots over the last 5 years. Sony released a full SLR lineup, including lenses. Olympus has been producing very high quality mirrorless bodies (not exactly point and shoots) for a few years now. Even Fujifilm has followed suit. Nikon and Canon, who probably generate a lot of revenue from p&s sales, have been widely diversified for decades.
This has been known for some time now. What would make your blog post more interesting is if you cut down on the conjecture and put some real research in it. For example, heres flickr's report on camera usage: http://www.flickr.com/cameras/
Tell this to my mom. She doesn't even know how to send or read SMS, but she still wants to take pictures at my birthday. I think we still have one or two generations that need the point-and-shoot
[+] [-] nathanb|14 years ago|reply
The author makes that statement as though this example vindicates him, while the death of console gaming is far from a foregone conclusion (the only way one could present a credible argument for the death of console gaming is by arguing that modern consoles are actually PCs, an argument which is at best a technical red herring).
The observation that "hey, phone cameras are pretty nice these days" isn't novel or bold, and it's not a Holmsean tour-de-force to extrapolate the declining point-and-shoot market. This is sort of like writing an article in 2003 saying "if you're a camera manufacturer who relies on 35mm film cameras to stay afloat, you should be worried as hell".
[+] [-] huggyface|14 years ago|reply
In other news, alarm clocks, MP3 players, GPS units, and voice dictation devices are all going to decline at the hands of smartphones. News at 11.
[+] [-] ajkessler|14 years ago|reply
You're point is valid, though not exactly contrarian. The decline of point and shoots became pretty obvious when the iphone 3g was released. I'm sure this is why every manufacturer has been diversifying their lineups away from point and shoots over the last 5 years. Sony released a full SLR lineup, including lenses. Olympus has been producing very high quality mirrorless bodies (not exactly point and shoots) for a few years now. Even Fujifilm has followed suit. Nikon and Canon, who probably generate a lot of revenue from p&s sales, have been widely diversified for decades.
[+] [-] gerggerg|14 years ago|reply
--edit-- heres another list: http://bighugelabs.com/topcameras.php
[+] [-] unknown|14 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] flomincucci|14 years ago|reply