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stochtastic | 2 years ago

The thread is at max depth, so I'll reply here:

As you quoted from the paper:

> The six main groups that provide satellite-altimetry-based GMSL estimates ...

1) You're restricting your attention to groups producing satellite-derived estimates.

2) Several of those groups, e.g. CSIRO, are using data assimilation to combine satellite estimates with gauges [1].

3) There are multiple satellites, often overlapping in time, often of totally different design/orbit/etc... [2]

4) Up to the most recent IPCC report (AR6), assessments were based on tide gauges alone [3]. For many of the reasons that you bring up. Hence "Nobody relies on estimates from a single satellite alone." Reconstruction of historical sea level is a huge scientific discipline and you would benefit from doing some more reading before beating a dead horse. The estimated uncertainty is large for a reason, but it does not encapsulate any scenarios where the observed change has been insignificant. If you think otherwise, I'd be happy to take your money for 2100 options on coastal real estate in about 90% of the world's coastline.

[1] — https://research.csiro.au/slrwavescoast/sea-level/measuremen... and https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1

[2] — https://research.csiro.au/slrwavescoast/sea-level/measuremen...

[3] — https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6... p.1287

discuss

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revelio|2 years ago

We've gone from:

- Uncertainty exceeding signal in satellite data is "simply not the case"

to

- OK maybe it was the case but it doesn't matter and nobody relies on one satellite anyway

to

- OK maybe some groups relied on one satellite but this is flogging a dead horse everyone already knows about

That's a big distance in a short thread! Also, note that you said "nobody relies" and now you're arguing "not everyone relies", which is different.

I won't be alive in 2100 but if you've got some nice seafront property you'd like to sell me below market price I'd definitely consider it. Maybe in Tuvalu? (see other post).

stochtastic|2 years ago

> We've gone from: - Uncertainty exceeding signal in satellite data is "simply not the case" ...

Not sure I can help someone who willfully misreads my comments! Give chapter 9 of the AR6 a read and then we can talk.