[omgomgomgomg]

I dont see how in 10 years most cars will be evs, when the ev sales percentage is 12% as of now. Which equals to 9.5% of electric vehicles on the road today. The increase in ev sales is in the low single digits per year, the math just doesnt check out.

[bryanlarsen]

EV production increased by 5 million cars last year (most in China). Total ICE market is 65 million. ~10 years is a simple linear projection.

[thfuran]

How much did total vehicle production increase in China last year?

[bluGill]

EVs are not expected to have a constant growth curve. With the expected ban of ICE EV will be the majority in a few years, and by 2034 few ICEs will be sold.

I do expect ICEs will be just under 50% of total cars, you could argue they are more like 55% of all cars, but it won't be 75%.

[AtlasBarfed]

Another example of humans not understanding the exponential function