[HopenHeyHi]

> Tesla is (in)famously overvalued.

> Their market cap is higher than most other car manufacturers (pumping out many times more vehicles than Tesla is), most of whom have caught up on EVs (is Toyota the only big manufacturer still lagging on EVs? I think they are)

Tesla is a top 5 car manufacturer by earnings at $14B for 2022. Toyota is next up that list at earnings of $20B.

Tesla sell almost 0.5 million EVs a quarter and has a 60% EV market share in the US, it sells more than everybody else combined currently, and is growing very fast. Hard to know how it will all shake out but so far nobody has caught up. Doesn't mean they can't but they are chasing. EV share of the US market is only 7% but is clearly the future, and again, Tesla has 60% (!) share in that market segment.

Looking forward there is the Gigafactory in Mexico and the Cybertruck release. If that is a hit Tesla will maintain its market leader position in 2024 and surpass Toyota in earnings. And they keep dropping prices. With smaller earnings than Tesla, and no institutional knowledge of making EVs it is hard to come up with a reason how and why Toyota can end up with a larger share of the EV market - suddenly they will find themselves in the position of the scrappy startup and Tesla the incumbant. That is the reason for the market cap, not mean tweets or dank memes - investors don't care about that.

Probably the list of EV leaders will be mostly new companies like Tesla, not legacy brands. Maybe some Chinese companies. Whatever the case it will look very different than today.